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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

Oh!!!

and i forgot to add to my post just above about corrections,it could be north,south,east or west,we all live in these locations,some will lose,some won't,that is the nature of these scenario's,someone is going to be lucky:D

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
1 minute ago, Paul_1978 said:

Where's CreweCold disappeared to? Spends ages chasing cold charts - we get some and he's nowhere to be seen.

Especially as his location looks great for snow Fri/Sat, through the Cheshire Gap, status thingy appeared around week ago, saying no more model thread, quickly deleted by someone though

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comet Enthusiast

comet

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted

Regardless of what the stats say for our tiny little portion of the globe the ecm  has been less than impressive lately. Having said that all this talk about sliders and possible snow amounts is all academic at this range ( almost a week away) heck even three days out a bit of a lottery. One thing I am sure of is whatever the models are showing today will have changed by tomorrow. UKMO has moved towards GFS this evening and I am fairly sure the ECM will follow suite.

The GFS seems to be the model to follow at the moment the other two models were showing a quite tepid northerly while the GFS stuck to its guns and now the other two have followed suite, Regarding the extended outlook and FI it would be the icing on the cake but to far away to take much notice of at the moment. Certainly something to keep track of though.

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ukmo day 7 anyone? 

Very nice indeed blue

C160536F-0BD6-4294-ADD3-6816487DF45D.thumb.png.886d8e3d0566f2f7886161a27a71a3c2.png

Edited by karlos1983
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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ukmo day 7 anyone? 

 

ukm2.2017121112.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png

Yes beat me too it slider incoming:D

Edited by winterof79
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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
2 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Where's CreweCold disappeared to? Spends ages chasing cold charts - we get some and he's nowhere to be seen.

Out buying a shovel:D it's great that we can discuss who might and might not get snow because it means that the possibility is there. For those that luckout and being down here I am probably one, I hope they will be pleased for the lucky ones. 

FWIW I would suggest wales with elevation will be lucky with the initial slider scenario but I genuinely feel there will be other opportunities down the line.

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted
6 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Where's CreweCold disappeared to? Spends ages chasing cold charts - we get some and he's nowhere to be seen.

He's tapping into the globel forecasting system for a stella run:rofl:

Ji8gpkE.gif

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Chesil View Accomplished

Chesil View

Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
Posted
6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ukmo day 7 anyone? 

A bit slide about it by the looks of it

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khodds Experienced

khodds

Posted
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
Posted

Can someone please tell me when was the last time we had a successful slider?!  :cc_confused::rofl: just for reference?!

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted
3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Very nice indeed blue

C160536F-0BD6-4294-ADD3-6816487DF45D.thumb.png.886d8e3d0566f2f7886161a27a71a3c2.png

tenor.gif?itemid=4108687

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BurwellWeatherWatch Enthusiast

BurwellWeatherWatch

Posted
  • Location: Burwell, Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Burwell, Cambridgeshire
Posted
2 minutes ago, khodds said:

Can someone please tell me when was the last time we had a successful slider?!  :cc_confused::rofl: just for reference?!

i think January 2013 - started snowing at lunchtime and snowed constantly until bedtime. Happy days!

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
3 minutes ago, khodds said:

Can someone please tell me when was the last time we had a successful slider?!  :cc_confused::rofl: just for reference?!

East Midlands had one this day, bugger all here, it went too far East

archives-2013-1-14-0-0.pngarchives-2013-1-14-12-0.pngarchives-2013-1-15-0-0.png

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
13 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ukmo day 7 anyone? 

Think it will be nice Blue- for me the 144 chart looked great but it seems to have gone under the radar (or under the block)..;)

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted
1 hour ago, Daniel* said:

I do think some folk over stress the impacts of a warming arctic and the lack of sea ice on the potency on northerly airstreams. These 850hPa temps on GFS 12z for Friday are pretty exceptional, -9C uppers south of the M4. All precipitation will fall as snow away from the coast at least a white day for some.

EA4C0CBE-B560-4D2A-8FC8-EEE685AEF7D2.thumb.jpeg.c84b727213eb51616180f0d4eedc6823.jpeg

I never noticed this till now but GFS shows a shortwave tracking down the North Sea this could bring general snowfall to the East Coast. There definitely could be surprises within the flow. 

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Bartlett High Aficionado

Bartlett High

Posted
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and very cold.
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
Posted

Fantastic news!! the local council have just replaced the light bulb for the lamp-post outside my house!

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted

Does anyone know if the purple shading over areas of the UK represents snow cover or is that just wishful thinking ? Either way that low is definitely going under and would give a pasting to southerners !

 

B1218E7E-B887-4480-B4A5-7390BBDE9443.png

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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted
5 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

East Midlands had one this day, bugger all here, it went too far East

archives-2013-1-14-0-0.pngarchives-2013-1-14-12-0.pngarchives-2013-1-15-0-0.png

Remember that event here in leicester!!was meant to turn to rain cos of a mild sector incoming from the west but ended up stayin as snow!in the end gave bout 8cms of snow!!

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
Just now, Tim Bland said:

Does anyone know if the purple shading over areas of the UK represents snow cover or is that just wishful thinking ? Either way that low is definitely going under and would give a pasting to southerners !

 

B1218E7E-B887-4480-B4A5-7390BBDE9443.png

snow... all the way :)

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Catacol Maestro

Catacol

Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, khodds said:

Can someone please tell me when was the last time we had a successful slider?!  :cc_confused::rofl: just for reference?!

As you are a SWesterner like me - this is the last time I know of a major slider that brought snow. Parts of Dorset got a foot from this:

archives-1996-2-6-0-0.png

Edited by Catacol
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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted
Just now, Tim Bland said:

Does anyone know if the purple shading over areas of the UK represents snow cover or is that just wishful thinking ? Either way that low is definitely going under and would give a pasting to southerners !

 

B1218E7E-B887-4480-B4A5-7390BBDE9443.png

It just reflects intensity see the scale at the bottom it gives you no idea of PPN type.

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Had Worse Maestro

Had Worse

Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
Posted
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

UKMO day 7 =

Image result for cheers gif

Thats a week away, Too long.

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