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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
5 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Here is UKMO 144. A bit meh. 

Screen Shot 2017-12-04 at 16.36.04.png

UW144-7.GIF?04-17

Not for those in the N or NE it's not.

True that there's not much support at this stage for much to get southerners excited, but that could easily change as these events have a habit of adjusting S and W even at just two or even one days range.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
3 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Here is UKMO 144. A bit meh. 

Screen Shot 2017-12-04 at 16.36.04.png

Disagree. As long as you keep the flow along that front east of south, most of the mild air is kept out.

I'd call it a "northern powerhouse" ... 

GFS is one slider after another. Northern areas could get absolutely pasted in the coming 10 days, maybe midlands too (and a teeny weeny chance for the most southern of us..)

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Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent

And here comes the easterly at the end again. To be honest, the 300 chart for GFS is almost replicated by the 144 Meto, if we can get heights pushing up over us then and easterly is almost bang on.

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

I know that Mr and Mrs Spank need to pay a short sharp trip to Bottyland for me posting a GFS snow accumulation chart so far out, but this is mouth watering for lovers of the white stuff. Just look at the coverage.

gfs-16-234.png

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, Seasonality said:

I know that Mr and Mrs Spank need to pay a short sharp trip to Bottyland for me posting a GFS snow accumulation chart so far out, but this is mouth watering for lovers of the white stuff. Just look at the coverage.

gfs-16-234.png

hmmmm only knocker land and Ireland snow free- i'll take that with a huge pinch of salt!!

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

No prizes for guessing' where we are going into FI...

every synoptic flagging up..

Via 12z gfs...

Thats if wintry weather is your thing!

The 850s can only imo be taken seriously from around wednesdays output, to many micro-dynamics on view to put that one to bed'yet'.

All in all some craking output.

 

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
46 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Looking at the run-up to the weekend, this chart is not all bad:

h850t850eu.png

Yes T96 as well what can go wrong :hi:

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Posted
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Continental climate, snow winter, sunny summers
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl
7 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Disagree. As long as you keep the flow along that front east of south, most of the mild air is kept out.

I'd call it a "northern powerhouse" ... 

GFS is one slider after another. Northern areas could get absolutely pasted in the coming 10 days, maybe midlands too (and a teeny weeny chance for the most southern of us..)

It’s okay for the North and NE, but pants for the rest of us as milder air gets in ahead of the slider.

Edited by Gustywind
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Posted
  • Location: Chichester West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snow
  • Location: Chichester West Sussex

GFS showing some proper blocking at the end of the run, and it's now consistently modelled a Scandinavian high at the end of its runs. Really think something might be brewing and just in time for the festive celebrations ?

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Posted
  • Location: Brussels, Belgium
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy weather in winter, dry and warm weather in summer
  • Location: Brussels, Belgium

Scandi High in late FI, bringing -8 uppers across the UK and Ireland :D

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Is this the fourth successive run that has ended with snowfest, I mean block?

h850t850eu.png

h850t850eu.png

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington

Used the ignore button more than refresh this afternoon lol

great 12z just need ecm to smell the coffee 

 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

From the blocked AT- ridge..

To scandi conversion.

A quite remarkable run/start-to finish.

And a run that locks the uk...and most europe....into real winter!

A very worth while ec-12z for view this evening!!!

gfs-1-336.png

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
2 minutes ago, snowbob said:

Used the ignore button more than refresh this afternoon lol

great 12z just need ecm to smell the coffee 

 

So long as it's best Colombian and not Morrisons Savers!:drunk-emoji:

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Well the ensembles chart looks so cold and snowy for my location in South Wales but the BBC forecast itself has none of it with average temperatures right through from Thursday night and heavy rain on Sunday (oh the joys of living on the coast), only good news is there would be a lot of dry, sunny weather although despite clear skies overnight no frost is even expected with lows of 3 or 4C. Very strange  :cc_confused:

image.jpeg

image.png

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
21 minutes ago, ShortWaveHell said:

Right from what I’m reading I can go buy my sledge and finally show my 3 year old nephew what snow is ! Just need Mr Sussex green light on said sledge purchase ! 

Beware of breaking rule 26.5 of the UK snow chasers manual: Never, ever, ever tell anyone else with that snow is coming, until there is absolutely zero chance that it will not!!

 

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4 minutes ago, Draig Goch said:

Well the ensembles chart looks so cold and snowy for my location in South Wales but the BBC forecast itself has none of it with average temperatures right through from Thursday night and heavy rain on Sunday (oh the joys of living on the coast), only good news is there would be a lot of dry, sunny weather although despite clear skies overnight no frost is even expected with lows of 3 or 4C. Very strange  :cc_confused:

image.jpeg

image.png

Same here in Tenby although 10C is possible on Saturday, so much milder than the ensembles show. Well at least apart from a rainy Sunday we should get plenty of winter sunshine :) it's better than mild, wet & windy imo mate

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
11 minutes ago, Draig Goch said:

Well the ensembles chart looks so cold and snowy for my location in South Wales but the BBC forecast itself has none of it with average temperatures right through from Thursday night and heavy rain on Sunday (oh the joys of living on the coast), only good news is there would be a lot of dry, sunny weather although despite clear skies overnight no frost is even expected with lows of 3 or 4C. Very strange  :cc_confused:

image.jpeg

image.png

The BBC will blatantly tell you that it's not snowing and that there is no chance of snow, even when you are digging your car out of 10 foot drifts

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