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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
3 minutes ago, snowstorm445 said:

Snow over England north of the M4 corridor and Northern Ireland. Rain for Southern England and Southern Ireland.

Uppers are marginal for snow. 

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Just now, Mark N said:

Here is the UKMO 144hrs. 

144HRS....png

thats the GFS

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
4 minutes ago, Mark N said:

Here is the UKMO 144hrs. 

144HRS....png

Edited by That ECM
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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

gem-0-150.png?12 gem-0-204.png?12 gem-0-234.png?12

GEM 12z just keeps on hurling those sliding lows into a trough that gains some seriously low heights. All areas go sub-516 at least briefly, and the far north sub-512 for a time.

I gather this translates to strong snow prospects even with uppers short of the -6 to -8 that some may look for under a polar maritime (although mixed with polar continental in this case) airmass. 

A vast improvement from the 00z and brings it in line with the trend that GFS started following a day or two ago.

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Posted
  • Location: Aberdare, Mid-Glamorgan. 202 ASL
  • Location: Aberdare, Mid-Glamorgan. 202 ASL
5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Rain, sleet and snow, depending on location and elevation..a wintry cocktail..more likely snow further north and east.

Edited by Welsh_Weather
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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

GFSOPNH12_198_1.png

Polar vortex shredded to pieces, pretty good from the GFS, lets hope this undercutting becomes a regular theme :D

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
1 minute ago, Singularity said:

gem-0-150.png?12 gem-0-204.png?12 gem-0-234.png?12

GEM 12z just keeps on hurling those sliding lows into a trough that gains some seriously low heights. All areas go sub-516 at least briefly, and the far north sub-512 for a time.

I gather this translates to strong snow prospects even with uppers short of the -6 to -8 that some may look for under a polar maritime (although mixed with polar continental in this case) airmass. 

A vast improvement from the 00z and brings it in line with the trend that GFS started following a day or two ago.

Two things - firstly gem uppers are generally overstated so take 2c off them and secondly, the surface thickness much less impressive but under a stagnant deep trough surface thicknesses become less relevant (I know you know this but others may not !)

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

npsh500.png npsh500.png

It is of considerable note that we're seeing the ridge to our NW re-establishing a good deal faster on the 12z GFS compared to the previous few.

gfsgwo_1.pngALL_emean_phase_full.gif 

Good progress with the tropical forcing and atmospheric setup in today's observed GWO and also the ECMF prediction for the MJO in the near-term. That it's had to adjust so very much already makes me highly suspicious of it's desire to collapse the  MJO on the 6-7 line. It's as if the model is being constrained by an assumed 'normal La Nina' background state... I've never seen a bias-adjusted EPS on the non-monthly scale so maybe that's actually the case...?

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Posted
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but boringly hot
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl

SOS from the polar vortex, might have to place a missing PV report in, after its being attacked by warm air right around the northern hemisphere.

Bodes well for the rest of December as can't see the jigsaw pieces coming back together in the near term from that view. 

 

S71204-162744.jpg

Edited by geordiekev
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Posted
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Cracking output so far-

sliding lows subject to revision SOUTH WEST-

UK mean 168-216 unlikely to rise above -4c @850 maybe even -6c..

GEM is amazing but its such a cannon fodder model...

awaits GFS FI...

Steve am I correct that we only just need the uppers to be just below freezing for snow to fall if the feed is coming off the continent??

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Cracking output so far-

sliding lows subject to revision SOUTH WEST-

UK mean 168-216 unlikely to rise above -4c @850 maybe even -6c..

GEM is amazing but its such a cannon fodder model...

awaits GFS FI...

Prone to dodgy runs but it still verifies close to gfs. If it’s on the same sheet as the other models then it’s solution is worth chucking into the pot

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Posted
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Continental climate, snow winter, sunny summers
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl
5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Cracking output so far-

sliding lows subject to revision SOUTH WEST-

UK mean 168-216 unlikely to rise above -4c @850 maybe even -6c..

GEM is amazing but its such a cannon fodder model...

awaits GFS FI...

UKMO looks a bit dodgy though at t144, atlantic air making inroads?

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Location: Hertfordshire

Excellent output so far great to finally see the ukmo on board. The ecm must surly follow to round off a superb afternoons model watching.

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
Just now, comet said:

Excellent output so far great to finally see the ukmo on board. The ecm must surly follow to round off a superb afternoons model watching.

Oh would love for it to follow, but can just see it being difficult and going against what current runs suggest aha.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
1 minute ago, Rocheydub said:

Here is UKMO 144. A bit meh. 

Screen Shot 2017-12-04 at 16.36.04.png

Probably some snow of the leading edge ahead of the slightly less cold air

UW144-7.thumb.GIF.8f5f78b98d9349a29957299513a05ffb.GIF

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On 02/12/2017 at 22:48, LRD said:

Yep, looking at the southerly jet and persistent euro low on the 18z, my first thought was "backtrack". Or, to put it another way... no, it wasn't

Is it not the case the more chances we get at reloads the more chance of getting something special to happen i.e. 2010 

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

gfsnh-0-240.png?12
Slightly odd I suppose but this is essentially the 12z GEM with some of the 'vigour' put into a LP development over C. Europe that then heads NE and draws the focus of low heights away with it.

Still constructing a continental feed situation though, even with the Arctic ridge aligned not nearly as helpfully as was the case in the previous two runs, thanks to that strong -ve PNA with a deep amplifying trough over E Canada which has turned up days 9-10 for a great many runs in a row now.

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