Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

UKMO at +120 not entertaining the GFS Slider of the 06z either 

 

It’s complicated but because of the way gfs was dealing with the cut off low, it’s split flow was wrong and it developed a proper low to undercut - ecm and ukmo just have a shortwave (see the kink in the ridge) with tonnes more energy into the northern arm 

hence gfs was basically far more wrong than ukmo and ecm will be

Edited December 4, 2017 by bluearmy

[Rocheydub]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It’s complicated but because is the way gfs was dealing with the cut off low, it’s split flow was wrong and it developed a proper low to undercut - ecm and ukmo just have a shortwave (see the kink in the ridge) with tonnes more energy into the northern arm 

hence gfs was basically far more wrong than ukmo and ecm will be

Indeed, minuscule differences in the short term have huge knock on effects longterm on our doorsteps!

[karlos1983]

cant see there being to many complaints *if this were to come off.

 

[Methuselah]

T+132...looks like a slider:

 

[bluearmy]

So we now have x model agreement on the evolution - we just don’t know where the diving low will dive (and how strong the feature will be)  - it’s fairly important where it dives !!

 

[Captain Shortwave]

To be honest this isn't far from the chart I posted above.

 

Snow for southern England in association with that sliding low.

UKMO

Cut off wedge pretty much due north of the UK, it would be pretty tight as to where the rain/snow line would be.

Edited December 4, 2017 by Captain Shortwave

[Frosty.]

8 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Looking at the run-up to the weekend, this chart is not all bad:

Indeed Ed..could be a lot lot worse

[Derecho]

A swing towards the ECM from the GFS but the undercutting low is a little further west which makes a big difference.



As mentioned earlier hopefully we can carry on undercutting Atlantic energy and pressure can start building behind from the Azores to Greenland.

A big snow event for northern/eastern areas on this chart.

Edited December 4, 2017 by Quicksilver1989

[Mark Neal.]

Hang On. Slider?

[That ECM]

UkmO at t144 shows what we trying to work out from the previous t168. It looks good to me. Sorry can't post the chart!

Edited December 4, 2017 by That ECM

[karlos1983]

Won't be long before we chase our next Northerly 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

UkmO at t144 shows what we trying to work out from the previous t168. It looks good to me. 

Yep, looks good to me too, im sure thats an upgrade on the 00z run..

[booferking]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

cant see there being to many complaints *if this were to come off.

 

Yea but the problem is if it can move 500 miles North one run nothing to say it will  correct itself even further North. 

[Singularity]

  

Aha - the halfway house!

 

Clear here how this keeps a good feed into the Euro trough whereas the 06z was missing the boat a bit.

That nose of higher pressure from the Arctic is interesting as this could force further sliders to follow into that Euro trough. 

Main question now is whether the UK can stay on the polar side of the jet. This being what the 00z ECM failed to achieve (while the 00z UKMO was very much on the edge).

[Mark wheeler]

Question ? , I’m still learning off these charts , snow or rain? Looks close to me. And yes all academic at this range.

 

Edited December 4, 2017 by Mark wheeler

[feb1991blizzard]

Big dumping coming up here.

[Methuselah]

Looks like a mixture of rain, sleet & snow, to me:

[Mucka]

Definitely one for Frosty's charts. 

[karlos1983]

Just now, Mark wheeler said:

Question ? , I’m still learning off these charts , snow or rain? 

 

knife edge!!!! really impossible to say who gets cold rain and who gets snow in that setup this far out. very likely to change as we get nearer anyway. It could go way south and everywhere is cold and dry or further N and then its cold rain everywhere.

[snowstorm445]

1 minute ago, Mark wheeler said:

Question ? , I’m still learning off these charts , snow or rain? Looks close to me. And yes all academic at this range.

 

Snow over England north of the M4 corridor and Northern Ireland. Rain for Southern England and Southern Ireland.

[northwestsnow]

Fascinating watching the jet buckle and energy going SE- feeding the euro low.

UKMO is close to something very very nice at 144 imho

just watching GFS is like rinse and repeat, again and again.

Edited December 4, 2017 by northwestsnow

[Mucka]

It gets said a lot but no point in getting hung up on where any snowline may or may not be, there are always winners and losers in marginal set ups.

Rinse repeat?

The good news is that there will be several opportunities for snow falling for just about everyone at some stage through first half of December and perhaps beyond.

Edited December 4, 2017 by Mucka

[Methuselah]

Looks as if the really mild air will be kept to our south:

Even more interesting:

Edited December 4, 2017 by Ed Stone

[Frosty.]

13 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Question ? , I’m still learning off these charts , snow or rain? Looks close to me. And yes all academic at this range.

 

Rain, sleet and snow, depending on location and elevation..a wintry cocktail..more likely snow further north and east..great to be discussing snow as a realistic prospect isn't it..

Edited December 4, 2017 by Frosty.

[Mark Neal.]

Here is the UKMO 144hrs. 

Corrected- I posted the 12z GFS... Ooops... 

Edited December 4, 2017 by Mark N