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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

Slider alert

gfsnh-0-174.png?6

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

They are lining up

gfs-0-186.png?6

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Having looked closely at gfs and ecm days 5/6, there is a shortwave on  ecm which goes under the block well to our sw whilst gfs develops this trough markedly into a distinct system which undercuts towards n biscay. I assume, therefore that gfs takes more split flow under the block which leaves less in the northern arm and a less strong jet for day 6/7. That might be a bit simplistic re the split jet but the differences between the two models may not quite be as marked as they look

 

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

would you look at that!!

5a252563c7f89_arcticflow.thumb.png.f76fedaeaa8e6844c370fef210bac632.png

Unprecedented Arctic profile for the time of year!! so much to be positive about as we head into winter proper

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Even way out here in la-la land the signal for some kind of Atlantic block seems strong...

h850t850eu.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

'Ello, 'ello, 'ello...what do we have 'ere then?:D

h850t850eu.png

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Well here we go again with hights transferring more towards Scandi towards the end of the run, a reoccurring theme there. Lots of snow showers ready to pile in from the east, I'd be very happy with this outcome, a coldies wet dream!:D:cold:

gfs-0-288.png

gfs-1-336.png

gfs-0-336.png

gfs-2-360.png

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

looking through the GEFS Purbs, I cannot find a single one that follows the ECM. They all send the slider low over the west of the UK or further west.

None of them look like this....

ECH1-144.thumb.gif.1ea1be76e6dd33391e04d5ebcb9e4af5.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ec op is amongst the milder spread of london T2 maxes and also windiest In the slider timescale 

Times like these are when I would love to see what MOGREPS is showing for the slider....

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

ECM is as BA pointed out very much on the mild side of the ensembles at the key time frame as well as a tad blowy. So hopefully in the 12z we will see a weaker feature, that will be much more likely to slide more favourably south east than the 00z. One to watch as the GFS is having none of it.

B7CFD3CB-180D-4D48-97D7-FF1832107ECD.thumb.gif.321842d09572c3ad387867e25b4f7ac0.gifD54C74A4-A0E2-49E6-B496-F470CC1AFDCA.gif

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
22 minutes ago, bradythemole said:

Times like these are when I would love to see what MOGREPS is showing for the slider....

I believe the Meto long range forecast is heavily influenced by MOGREPS so if you read that it will tell you...In summary it goes for the slider low running across southern areas. 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

What a stunning, sensational end to the Gfs 6z with charts that remind me of the last time we had a severe wintry spell 7 years ago.:shok::cold:. The arctic blast later this week is upgraded with ice days, heavy snow showers, hard frosts and plenty of ice. Throughout the run the depth of cold ebbs and flows before really intensifying from the E / NE towards the end with a wall of snow marching westwards!..great stuff, hoping the majority of us get lots of the white stuff we richly deserve following recent years of generally mild miserable mush!:cold: 

06_372_mslp850.png

06_372_preciptype.png

06_372_uk2mtmp.png

06_384_uk2mtmpmin.png

06_384_ukthickness850.png

Yes, great charts, just needs that shortwave a couple of hundred miles west any you've got a very potent shortwave wrapped in -15c uppers, believe me, that at this time of year would wreak havoc on some scale.

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