Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

[snowice]

Bring back 62-63

Must thank  you for your informative and excellent post and the effort and time you put into it

Edited December 3, 2017 by snowice

[MattTarrant]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Perfect allignment of the cold so far brings a second bout of -10c over the UK

how close will the slider get....

62% phone charge Steve....

In all seriousness, the West Coast would look very wintry if it came off as this. 

[Derecho]

High pressure much stronger to the SW on this run so far, will the undercut even happen?.... hmmmmm

Ideally we want a high to be cut off to our NW, this run looks a bit more precarious but I may be wrong

Edited December 3, 2017 by Quicksilver1989

[Mokidugway]

19 minutes ago, Bring Back1962-63 said:

 

 

Wow , that's up there with the epic tales of Gilgamesh, nice work  thanks Paul 

Edited December 3, 2017 by Mokidugway

[Allseasons-Si]

At 144,better height's into the Atlantic and eastern europe/asia can only force the trough to sink further south,i am keeping my eye on heights bridging on subsequent runs(red circle),good stuff this.

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, Ukwoody said:

I can see the -10  but how do you work out where the 850 is please??

That is an 850 chart.

[bluearmy]

Very strong jet streak headed east off Newfoundland day 7 - 

[Allseasons-Si]

7 minutes ago, Ukwoody said:

I can see the -10  but how do you work out where the 850 is please??

Says so in the top middle

[Derecho]

Looks like the northerly will be quickly brushed aside because of the high settling over Europe, not a fan of this run, hopefully not a trend. The polar vortex looks far stronger then on the 12z.

Edited December 3, 2017 by Quicksilver1989

[Dean E]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Very strong jet streak headed east off Newfoundland day 7 - 

Must be in response to a better organised vortex over Canada, rather different in that area compared to the 12z and other recent runs

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Looks like the northerly will be quickly brushed aside because of the high settling over Europe, not a fan of this run, hopefully not a trend. The polar vortex looks far stronger then on the 12z.

Where is the high settling over Europe on that chart?

[Derecho]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Where is the high settling over Europe on that chart?

The 1025mb high over Southern France... and a low near Iceland which is conductive to westerlies occuring due to the stronger PV over NE Canada.

Ideally you want to avoid higher pressure in this area if the UK is to remain cold.

 

[Ben Sainsbury]

Definitely greater amplification on GFS 18z, and some clear differences regarding the low in the Atlantic. A much stronger low developing towards Iceland too displacing much of the cold air from the UK.

 

[Methuselah]

Not much sign of a slider here?

[bluearmy]

Disappointing mid range from the pub run. sums up the potential for not too much to come from this particular amplification if the initial northerly doesn't deliver.  Hoping the clusters due out in five mins work this time! 

Edited December 3, 2017 by Paul

[Frosty.]

Well I was accused of being very misleading and giving fake news about a potentially severe wintry blast late in the week ahead but that's exactly what the Gfs 18z shows with heavy snow showers, drifting snow, severe windchill, ice days and penetrating frosts, especially over the many snow fields..hope it verifies!! Enjoy coldies

[knocker]

Would you Adam and Eve it. The slider has become a trigger shortwave. Whatever next

[Methuselah]

17 minutes ago, Ukwoody said:

I can see the -10  but how do you work out where the 850 is please??

You need to select 850hPa + SLP from the chart options thingy...

[nick sussex]

The PV is more bloated here but before it gets ideas above its station a re-load of the positive PNA takes place with a some great amplification working in from the Pacific.

Factor in some GFS bias and edge the pattern further west.

 

[Day 10]

UKMO, ECM & GFS 18z together for comparison 96 & 120

[MKN]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Well I was accused of being very misleading and giving fake news about a potentially severe wintry blast late in the week ahead but that's exactly what the Gfs 18z shows with heavy snow showers, drifting snow, severe windchill, ice days and penetrating frosts, especially over the many snow fields..hope it verifies!! Enjoy coldies

For less than 15% of the UK that maybe the case but for the majority a typical largely dry northerly followed by a more westerly influence into day 8/9. 

[January Snowstorm]

Folks if that's not a toppler I don't know what is......potent with snow for some though.

Looks like a reset then going forward but decent outlook hard to attain

[Allseasons-Si]

Trough disrupting too far north and similar to the ecm's 168

i keep on seeing those arctic wabbits on the NH charts

Edited December 3, 2017 by Allseasons-si

[stewfox]

2 hours ago, tinybill said:

country  file are  saying after  Tuesday by  the end  of  the week is cold  and windy by friday with possible wintry showers 

 Country file was invented before the internet  to advised snow lovers when in the following 7 days it was best to look under street lights, usually at 4am for potential wintry showers.We don't need that any more

3 days into winter only 87 days left well including March (remember 2013) only 118 or 456 GFS runs to go unless you include April

Eyes down for 18GFS Even if its a two day Northely Toppler , 456 runs left all to play for

 

[SteveB]

2 minutes ago, MKN said:

For less than 15% of the UK that maybe the case but for the majority a typical largely dry northerly followed by a more westerly influence into day 8/9. 

And of course we all know day 8 & 9 verify