Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

[Man With Beard]

The ECM has come in for a bit of criticism this week - but just check out the archives for Friday 00Z. Looked odd at the time but now a very close match to all tonights models up to T168, even T192. If this is the final path, you'd have to say it actually had it over the GFS. Oh, and that one had a snowy weekend too...

[markw2680]

16 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

I don't agree as he did say it would turn markedly colder by Thursday and interestingly showed a trough coming down from the North. It's a potent 2 day toppler though as we know further potential afterwards

Yes I suppose I did see the trough but the graphics as usual were pathetic and it was all a bit played down, I no it’s a way off yet to be playing it up etc but I have to say it was all rather ?. Anyway back to the models we go

[comet]

Apart from a fairly potent 2 day northerly the Ecm 12z was nothing to write home about, quite disappointing to honest. Same can really be said for the UKMO run as well.

[steveinsussex]

5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Check out the woodshed, there's something wintry lurking in there

Enjoy the cold knocksmodels never looked better.

V misleading

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

V misleading

I must be looking at different models to you then, I could swear they show lots of wintry potential..indeed they do!!!!!

[bluearmy]

15 minutes ago, comet said:

Apart from a fairly potent 2 day northerly the Ecm 12z was nothing to write home about, quite disappointing to honest. Same can really be said for the UKMO run as well.

Agreed - we always get almost countrywide snow events more than once in every December model run ............this run bringing  only one is very poor 

[MR EXTREMES]

1 hour ago, Isleofwightsnowgal74 said:

Could someone please explain to me are the charts showing potential cold and snow for all the country or just north? Coming from the Isle of Wight I’m really not sure whether to be excited or not? Obviously be great just to have a prolonged cold spell but wondered what our southerners chances of snow are? Sorry if wrong thread just trying to understand the charts? 

Yes lots of potential absolutely I've been watching the gefs model lately and I'm impressed.

It's an amazing set up certainly could rival 09/10

[MR EXTREMES]

11 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I must be looking at different models to you then, I could swear they show lots of wintry potential..indeed they do!!!!!

Absolutely frosty im 80% on the northerly and block.

[joggs]

29 minutes ago, knocker said:

Oh dearie, dearie me. The thought of Frosty feeling sorry for me has brought on one of my turns. A dark room beckons.

Then again Knocker you do have about 90% of the bragging rights each winter lol.

Hope Sidney' s nuts survive.

Great looking charts if your of cold persuasion.  But we know these things can go nuts down.

 

Edited December 3, 2017 by joggs

[Duane S.]

ECM just another variation on the theme. The theme remains. Will be interesting to see where it fits amongst the ens shortly.

Worth noting 'sliders' like this are a fairly rare occurrence and more often than not, for whatever reason, correct south and westwards towards Day 0

Edited December 3, 2017 by s4lancia

[bobbydog]

16 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

V misleading

whats misleading? frosty is saying what the models are showing - wintry potential. to be fair, no-one in this thread has any obligation to provide an accurate forecast. its a discussion about model output. if you want an official forecast, look here-  https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/mobile/forecast/gcpf2xeu5

which incidentally, looks like a decent outlook if you like cold wintry weather!

[steveinsussex]

1 minute ago, bobbydog said:

whats misleading? frosty is saying what the models are showing - wintry potential. to be fair, no-one in this thread has any obligation to provide an accurate forecast. its a discussion about model output. if you want an official forecast, look here-  https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/mobile/forecast/gcpf2xeu5

which incidentally, looks like a decent outlook if you like cold wintry weather!

He said - "models never looked better"

 

#fakenews

[Allseasons-Si]

 

37 minutes ago, knocker said:

Oh dearie, dearie me. The thought of Frosty feeling sorry for me has brought on one of my turns. A dark room beckons.

It's not like you to be off topic in the MOD thread Knocks...maybe you are getting that frosty feeling

anyway,ecm mean out and not much has changed the last few days,graph for London,not bad.

Edited December 3, 2017 by Allseasons-si

[bobbydog]

7 minutes ago, ShortWaveHell said:

Does a Russian high bring an easterlie in for the uk ? Not something I’m clued up on 

it can if it links up with the atlantic ridge, (with a euro trough in place) in this case (on the ECM) it keeps everything further west, which keeps the trough over us for longer.

Edited December 3, 2017 by bobbydog
add some important detail!

[bobbydog]

Just now, steveinsussex said:

He said - "models never looked better"

 

#fakenews

#pedantic....

[terrier]

2 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

He said - "models never looked better"

 

#fakenews

Look a dam sight better than last December 

[Had Worse]

1 minute ago, FiftyShadesofWine said:

Russian highs are dangerous, migrate into Scandi Iceland game on....join an Azores high and it's game over....for weeks!....won't mention the word though. Most here know the dreaded B word.

You mean Belt Tart?

[phil nw.]

Certainly nothing to complain about this evening from a cold pov.

All the models going with the same NH pattern ie Canadian trough,Atlantic ridging and the Scandi/Euro trough.Once the Northerly comes through bringing in a reload of Arctic air it looks cold for the UK and nw Europe for the foreseeable.The 500hPa pattern remains pretty much the same throughout.

Days 5 and 10 from the ECM mean

 

and glancing at day 15 EPS still looking cold with the cold upper Euro trough nearby and those Ht anomalies in the Atlantic.. 

Probably limited snow as the cold comes in but this northerly looks to have a bit more of bite to it and i wouldn't be surprised to see some last minute minor disturbances cropping up in the flow afterwards.

Overall though with the signs of the Canadian vortex expelling further lows over and then se around the Atlantic ridging there 's likely to be more interest in the medium term. 

[Frosty.]

15 minutes ago, terrier said:

Look a dam sight better than last December 

And a million times better than Dec 2015..still makes me shudder, all those red / mud brown crayon charts showing mild across the UK / western europe

I'm really enjoying what the models are showing and I know many are which is why it's so busy..i mean let's face it, the models are usually showing Atlantic / Azores mild zephyrs but coldies have something wintry to look forward to again later in the week ahead and hopefully further ahead too, the GEFS mean today indicates quite a prolonged cold spell after the initial arctic surge on thurs / fri...fascinating exciting times..for a change!

Edited December 3, 2017 by Frosty.

[Coopsy]

Best charts in ages and still there’s bickering  ?. Roll on Friday and snowmaggedon ?

Edited December 3, 2017 by c00ps

[Allseasons-Si]

I am liking the look of this

mslp 15d anomly,shows a big scuasian block developing.

[Day 10]

Weather for the week ahead in left to right order

[Singularity]

16 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Certainly nothing to complain about this evening from a cold pov.

All the models going with the same NH pattern ie Canadian trough,Atlantic ridging and the Scandi/Euro trough.Once the Northerly comes through bringing in a reload of Arctic air it looks cold for the UK and nw Europe for the foreseeable.The 500hPa pattern remains pretty much the same throughout.

Days 5 and 10 from the ECM mean

 

and glancing at day 15 EPS still looking cold with the cold upper Euro trough nearby and those Ht anomalies in the Atlantic.. 

Probably limited snow as the cold comes in but this northerly looks to have a bit more of bite to it and i wouldn't be surprised to see some last minute minor disturbances cropping up in the flow afterwards.

Overall though with the signs of the Canadian vortex expelling further lows over and then se around the Atlantic ridging there 's likely to be more interest in the medium term. 

Great analysis as usual - worth adding though, that's a 1035 mb Arctic High on an ensemble mean (and EPS at that!) at day 10 and with good continuity from earlier timeframes.

One of the most extraordinary charts I've witnessed in that respect. 

Plus GFS/GEFS have been in good agreement and strongly suggesting a significant further disturbance to both the tropospheric and stratospheric vortex in the 8-16 day period.

Hopefully this is not a major case of red herrings - it'd be among the worst I'd ever seen if it did turn out to be so.

[Mokidugway]

1 minute ago, Day 10 said:

Weather for the week ahead in left to right order

And if not ....

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening All ,hope you have had a great weekend , A Potent shot of Artic air by the end of the week , once we get this little blip of something milder which still feels cold  This will be a colder shot for all of us than last week ,so snow likely in more places especially in the north and west as apposed to the south east, but the longegevity of this cold spell remains shortwell at the moment....