Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

[Frosty.]

I will gladly take a run like this from thurs onwards from the Ecm 12z any day, any week, any month during the winter over southwesterly  mild mush!..for those who prefer mild, enjoy wednesday because arctic air is on the way with a strong blast piling snow showers down across the UK later in the week with widespread frosty nights. even though the uppers lift a bit during next weekend it stays cold with a wintry mix, snow especially to high ground..then a reload of colder uppers from the north returning south..it's wintry!...anyway, it's still evolving, there could be further upgrades nearer the time as the models firm up on the finer detail..Enjoy the ride coldies!

Edited December 3, 2017 by Frosty.

[bobbydog]

2 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

ooh whats that peaking over the top of the Scandi trough at 240 on ECM. ..............rearrange the following words...... High ...Russian.

Hishian Rugs?

[summer blizzard]

34 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

When it comes to Sliders N and E of the low is usually a good spot for snow, those S and W will receive cold rain.

The important thing for sliders is not to be on the east coast and to have south easterlies at the surface so that the low drags colder and drier air ahead. 

[Man With Beard]

22 minutes ago, snowking said:

I'm not a fan of looking at precise snowfall prospects at this range as this will obviously vary hugely from run to run (and suite to suite), but on this particular ECM Det. run:

It looks fairly impressive North of that magical M4 corridor

From the charts I've seen (and not just this one), ECM has Sunday as a big snow event north of M4. The ECM op has actually shown this many times now, with some variation over where the snow is centred.

[Summer Sun]

Bit of a no man's land type of chart from UKMO extended over the UK no deep lows and no big high

Edited December 3, 2017 by Summer Sun

[northwestsnow]

24 minutes ago, tinybill said:

country  file are  saying after  thuesday by  the end  of  the week iscold  and windy by friday with possibe wintry showers 

That sounds pathetic to be fair 

[markw2680]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

That sounds pathetic to be fair 

It was pathetic tbh, it was very vague with its graphics as usual and said wintry showers around the coasts and was sunny down the spine, I’m sure that will change as it gets closer

[karlos1983]

5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Bit of a no man's land type of chart from UKMO extended over the UK no deep lows and no big high

Looks to me like a sliding low? Similar to ECM but perhaps a tad further west

Edited December 3, 2017 by karlos1983

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

That sounds pathetic to be fair 

I think over the years they have been put into their place at times, I.e calling a barbecue summer in 2007, and then turning out to be the wettest on record! So have since kept a more conservative view and not counting chickens before they've hatched! 

[andymusic]

1 minute ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

I think over the years they have been put into their place at times, I.e calling a barbecue summer in 2007, and then turning out to be the wettest on record! So have since kept a more conservative view and not counting chickens before they've hatched! 

yep - on the fence until closer to snow-day before giving out panic or non-panic info

[Mokidugway]

1 minute ago, andymusic said:

yep - on the fence until closer to snow-day before giving out panic or non-panic info

Aye , met office all over ,lol 

[knocker]

7 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Bit of a no man's land type of chart from UKMO extended over the UK no deep lows and no big high

Well it does have the trough behind the ecm but of course there is no way of knowing the angle of the jet.

[karlos1983]

17 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

That sounds pathetic to be fair 

It was as per UKMO output really and they only went up to Friday, so no great shakes imo. They clearly have confidence in a very cold northerly but aren’t tempted to go further .......yet. Who can blame them??

Edited December 3, 2017 by karlos1983

[January Snowstorm]

4 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

It was pathetic tbh, it was very vague with its graphics as usual and said wintry showers around the coasts and was sunny down the spine, I’m sure that will change as it gets closer

I don't agree as he did say it would turn markedly colder by Thursday and interestingly showed a trough coming down from the North. It's a potent 2 day toppler though as we know further potential afterwards

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

It was pathetic tbh, it was very vague with its graphics as usual and said wintry showers around the coasts and was sunny down the spine, I’m sure that will change as it gets closer

Yes why is chris fawkes tweeting about disruptive snow and then the beeb wheel out an absolutely abysmal forecast for snow fans.

If thats right there will be hardly any snow..anywhere.

[Frosty.]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

That sounds pathetic to be fair 

It's usual playing down caution, I've seen plenty of reports today saying much, much colder with snow in places after the midweek wet and windy period..and of course most of the latest model output is ace for c o l d i e s 

[knocker]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes why is chris fawkes tweeting about disruptive snow and then the beeb wheel out an absolutely abysmal forecast for snow fans.

If thats right there will be hardly any snow..anywhere.

I know it's an absolute disgrace and a complete waste of public money when they refuse to tell us what we want to hear,

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

I don't agree as he did say it would turn markedly colder by Thursday and interestingly showed a trough coming down from the North. It's a potent 2 day toppler though as we know further potential afterwards

It's a toppler, Jim. But not as we know it!

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

I know it's an absolute disgrace and a complete waste of public money when they refuse to tell us what we want to hear,

 great minds knocker think alike..

[beatpete]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes why is chris fawkes tweeting about disruptive snow and then the beeb wheel out an absolutely abysmal forecast for snow fans.

If thats right there will be hardly any snow..anywhere.

Detail impossible at this range?

 

[geordiekev]

1 hour ago, Isleofwightsnowgal74 said:

Could someone please explain to me are the charts showing potential cold and snow for...

A good place to check specifics are in the regional threads and there's always visitors local to those threads to answer any questions. 

But, the best way of learning is to use netweathers free GFS charts. Choose a specific time to look at Eg T24, then just play around with the drop down options for that exact same time, precipitation type, temp, wind, snow chances, pressure charts. Then just scroll forward, you'll soon pick up the correlation between the charts that are mainly shown in here, with what to expect on the ground.

Ofcourse there's many of the most helpful members in here to help,  but that's where I would start. But believe me it's addictive, the GFS charts are free just to lure you in 

https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/gfs

Edited December 3, 2017 by geordiekev

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

 great minds knocker think alike..

I actually feel sorry for knocker and sidney, didn't think I would ever say that.

Very exciting 12z runs showing an arctic blast sweep south after wednesday.

Edited December 3, 2017 by Frosty.

[terrier]

Well just caught up on the model output. And wow it’s gonna get cold from Thursday onwards. A far cry from this time last year. Seeing a few comments regarding the weather for week ahead forecast regarding not showing widespread snow. But I’ve not seen much in the charts to suggest that anyway. Summary is turning very cold with widespread sharp frost with coastal counties seeing snow and Scotland. 

[knocker]

Oh dearie, dearie me. The thought of Frosty feeling sorry for me has brought on one of my turns. A dark room beckons.

[Frosty.]

Just now, knocker said:

Oh dearie, dearie me. The thought of Frosty feeling sorry for me has brought on one of my turns. A dark room beckons.

Check out the woodshed, there's something wintry lurking in there

Enjoy the cold knocksmodels never looked better.