Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

[northwestsnow]

Isnt Ec looking cold again after the low passes through? Looks cold to me at 192 onwards ?at work cant see the 850s.

[gottolovethisweather]

20 minutes ago, Isleofwightsnowgal74 said:

Could someone please explain to me are the charts showing potential cold and snow for all the country or just north? Coming from the Isle of Wight I’m really not sure whether to be excited or not? Obviously be great just to have a prolonged cold spell but wondered what our southerners chances of snow are? Sorry if wrong thread just trying to understand the charts? 

 

 

Get the cold air in place and then worry about your regions' chances might be an old adage but it IS a sound one. Same goes for everyone else wondering over the specifics. Even now, the bigger picture could change but once down to D3 timescales we should get a clearer idea on the surface specifics, so that'll be Tuesday evening's model outputs or thereabouts. During this range, i.e. less than 72 hours right through to almost zero hours, Fax charts and local media forecasts come into their own when trying to second-guess precipitation types (will it snow IMBY?). All I'll say is that my feet on firmly on the ground, we've been here a million times in the past, so I'll be waiting for many further runs yet. Tempted to go 70:30 in favour of a significant wintry event, but will stick with 60:40 chances for now. 

Edited December 3, 2017 by gottolovethisweather

[Iceaxecrampon]

Just comparing 2010 to 2017 potential.

17th December was the last time the Fylde had a memorable event.

2010

2017

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Isnt Ec looking cold again after the low passes through? Looks cold to me at 192 onwards ?at work cant see the 850s.

Nothing desperately cold 

But yes colder

 

[Dennis]

by GFS12 snow 

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 

Roughly North of the Home Counties its lots of snow

once the front is through  its damp thereafter 

Seen it now, if I'm looking at the chart right, decent covering maintained across Wales and NW England right to the end of the run.

[nick sussex]

The ECM at T168hrs shows a very rare set up and its all very complicated in terms of detail. Impossible to say which areas will be in the firing line this far out.

Theres disagreement between the big 3 as to where this Atlantic energy might track so it's very much a case of having to wait and see.

 

 

[shotski]

Thank goodness for the 160kt jet. 

Seems to be setting up reload after reload.  

Edited December 3, 2017 by shotski

[Frosty_wsm]

3 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Just comparing 2010 to 2017 potential.

17th December was the last time the Fylde had a memorable event.

2010

2017

Had a steamer set up that day back in 2010, all the way from the west coast of Wales, dumped a fair few inches here, would be nice to see a repeat, charts look very similar, doubt will see the same result though but who knows. 

[ArHu3]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM at T168hrs shows a very rare set up and its all very complicated in terms of detail. Impossible to say which areas will be in the firing line this far out.

Theres disagreement between the big 3 as to where this Atlantic energy might track so it's very much a case of having to wait and see.

 

 

 

Are you thinking this? 

 

[MattStoke]

Anyone have the link to the ECM snow accumulation charts?

Also, the Fax charts should be updated soon. Might give an idea of any troughs that bring increase wintry precipitation. 

[Britneyfan]

Let's hope the ECM is not the way forward, otherwise we are looking at a very brief northerly with very little in the way of snow expect higher ground, hills and Scotland! Nothing unusual or exciting 

[MattStoke]

Just now, Britneyfan said:

Let's hope the ECM is not the way forward, otherwise we are looking at a very brief northerly with very little in the way of snow expect higher ground, hills and Scotland! Nothing unusual or exciting 

Looks far more wintry than that to me. Uppers supportive of snowfall to low levels, and streamer and disturbances in the flow with showers pushing well in land. 

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, Britneyfan said:

Let's hope the ECM is not the way forward, otherwise we are looking at a very brief northerly with very little in the way of snow expect higher ground, hills and Scotland! Nothing unusual or exciting 

Not true but academic at this stage without any x model agreement on the evolution in the nw Atlantic days 5/7. 

Edited December 3, 2017 by bluearmy

[snowking]

1 minute ago, Britneyfan said:

Let's hope the ECM is not the way forward, otherwise we are looking at a very brief northerly with very little in the way of snow expect higher ground, hills and Scotland! Nothing unusual or exciting 

I'm not a fan of looking at precise snowfall prospects at this range as this will obviously vary hugely from run to run (and suite to suite), but on this particular ECM Det. run:

It looks fairly impressive North of that magical M4 corridor

[blizzard81]

20 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

What a dogs dinner the ECM is making out of this..... eeesh

cold rain is my least favourite weather type.

I couldn't agree more. I am disappointed with the ecm op in the medium to long term. One of the main problems with this run is the fact that the pv lobe over north east Canada is much more menacing and then moves east towards Greenland. We really do not want this to happen. 

[Midlander]

Hi all, to my surprise I found these snow depths, when 850's seem to be not conducive for snow.

[bradymk]

JMA got the low sliding SE’wards much further to the west. ECM probably too far east going off past experiences with this sort of setup. Will have to wait until we get some sort of agreement but exciting times!

[Chesil View]

Just now, bluearmy said:

Not true but acandemic at this stage without any x model agreement on the evolution in the nw Atlantic days 5/7. 

very true Nick.Anyone trying to stick detail on possible events seven days out  in a situationlike this is really just wasting their time.

Edited December 3, 2017 by Broadmayne blizzard

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

I couldn't agree more. I am disappointed with the ecm op in the medium to long term. One of the main problems with this run is the fact that the pv lobe over north east Canada is much more menacing and then moves east towards Greenland. We really do not want this to happen. 

I’m still happy to play the long game if needs be, and the end of the week looks good for many. We are in a rare situation where we could get a few bites at the cherry. 

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

 

Are you thinking this?

 

That's a rare set up as well but had a deeper level of cold air to draw on as the feed ahead of the fronts was from the east.

 

[bobbydog]

trough further west this time, hanging on and allowing a colder feed to build.

will it rain? will it snow? where will it snow? who has it right? the GFS? the UKMO? the ECM?

find out in the next episode of...'Netweather's Top Model'....

[CanadaAl]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I couldn't agree more. I am disappointed with the ecm op in the medium to long term. One of the main problems with this run is the fact that the pv lobe over north east Canada is much more menacing and then moves east towards Greenland. We really do not want this to happen. 

It looks unlikely that the PV will intensify to this level at least in the next 2 weeks. Positive PNA should see to that

[tinybill]

country  file are  saying after  thuesday by  the end  of  the week iscold  and windy by friday with possibe wintry showers 

[Chesil View]

ooh whats that peaking over the top of the Scandi trough at 240 on ECM. ..............rearrange the following words...... High ...Russian.