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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but boringly hot
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
54 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I would ? to give more points out but I'm empty..back tomorrow for hopefully more stellar cold charts to feast our eyes on..night all:):cold:

Have a point on me. Oh I scared myself there, sounded a bit too southern for my parts, we are closely monitored up here.  that scarf would never do. 

Seriously though,  we should be happy that the 3 main models appear to be practising the same religion never mind from the same hymn book.

As they say. when the FUN stops STOP. It's difficult to get upgrades when models look as good as they do, relatively speaking. I'm tempted to give the next few a miss and just wait for the next pasting to arrive and hopefully be even more surprised when it does :ball-santa-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Huge uncertainties for Thursday/Friday, yet alone deeper into the runs. For example, some of the ECM ensembles have nothing in terms of snow, some have a widespread event. My favourite dumps about 20-30cms widely across a majority of the country, with a max of 75cms over higher ground in the north of England!

I'd roughly eyeball about 70% having settling snow on Thursday/Friday for at least a region of the country, with maybe 30% of the ensembles having deeper falls(15cms+) for at least one region. 

 

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: DL
  • Location: DL
13 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Gfs looks great...picking up the slider baton ..

Ukmo on the other hand looks like a 24 hour northerly toppler..:wallbash:

 

I think apparent toppling is what is wanted, if we want the jet to be able to throw the lows from south of Greenland toward northern France.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
7 minutes ago, meh said:

I think apparent toppling is what is wanted, if we want the jet to be able to throw the lows from south of Greenland toward northern France.

Absolutely...but that looks unlikely on ukmo 00z..the jet is running over the top of the high rather than cutting across...

If you compare gfs/ukmo at 144 the difference is there to see.

Its one run...amongst a range of posibilities...

Over to EC...a repeat of the 12z would be appreciated..:)

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Posted
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but boringly hot
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Gfs looks great...picking up the slider baton ..

Ukmo on the other hand looks like a 24 hour northerly toppler..:wallbash:

 

Trying to find the right emoji for UKM0 this morning, Rebekah Vardy eating Ass with Ant & Dec sums it up

S71203-053627.jpg

Edited by geordiekev
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

edit :waffle-

GEM sides with UKMO at 144- much less amplified than GFS.

Oh dear i do hope the wheels aren't falling off again...

Would love a repeat of EC 12z to boost my drained morale.

Control looks potentially quite snowy thur night into Fri and stays cold until monday but after that its awful with the jet blasting all before it.

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
31 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

edit :waffle-

GEM sides with UKMO at 144- much less amplified than GFS.

Oh dear i do hope the wheels aren't falling off again...

Would love a repeat of EC 12z to boost my drained morale.

Control looks potentially quite snowy thur night into Fri and stays cold until monday but after that its awful with the jet blasting all before it.

Hopefully the UKMO is overplaying the strength of the jet.

Certainly looks a cold weekend all around though with some snow for most.

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

With this set up it is a constant battle between the ridge and the jet stream. If a model makes more of the jet we have upset coldies. This battle looks like being played out for a good while yet. Country wide snow I don't see but chances for some. Is it any wonder there is little confidence as it is finely balanced. Fact is we're are in the game and that hasn't been the case for a few years.

 

past t120 is just for fun and in the set up even more so. Why get led by good looking output past t120? 

Edited by That ECM
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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

The models are making far more of that trigger low this morning, another shift Northwards and another trend to deepen the low. I'm still not sure that evolution is going to be right, but I suppose with the very sharp temperature gradient it very well could be. 

ECM full slider territory, it hasn't gone the UKMO route.

 ECM.thumb.gif.c390a0f4b988ce2ace34acc9627a49c6.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
4 minutes ago, Danny* said:

The models are making far more of that trigger low this morning, another shift Northwards and another trend to deepen the low. I'm still not sure that evolution is going to be right, but I suppose with the very sharp temperature gradient it very well could be. 

ECM full slider territory, it hasn't gone the UKMO route.

 ECM.thumb.gif.c390a0f4b988ce2ace34acc9627a49c6.gif

It looks much better than ukmo :)

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

On this run ecm is more like gfs.  Fascinating times. 

IMG_0121.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

Morning,

Monday morning looks frigid on ECM 00z a very slack flow barely any wind. On EC negative double digits in the south? With white stuff on the ground I suspect so. Mid negative teens for Scottish Glens.

873DD954-2776-4304-8F75-7740A64BE3C9.thumb.gif.d87434309b8149587404d33888d7b19b.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

I wouldn't call it fascinating myself more a synoptic mess. The coldest uppers evaporate and we are left with cold rain...that azores high seems ever present and more than just a nuisance 

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Morning,

Monday morning looks frigid on ECM 00z a very slack flow barely any wind. On EC negative double digits in the south? With white stuff on the ground I suspect so. Mid negative teens for Scottish Glens.

873DD954-2776-4304-8F75-7740A64BE3C9.thumb.gif.d87434309b8149587404d33888d7b19b.gif

Wouldn't there be a weather front trailing down across the country from the LP to the NW?

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

The latter frames of ECM are extremely cold despite not overly impressive T850 temps very slack.

A68A79A5-E2D5-47C7-AAC0-D12311D72115.thumb.png.0f5da87da2872e6c24257b678fddaa0f.png

Hi there, slider low! 

T850 temps are not great. However, I think it will be cold enough by then to be on the right side of things for most. Typically this would not be the way - very happy with ECM this morning.

D40DEA5D-A052-496F-9220-36DC583914CF.thumb.png.29b5b6b9e87c9b1363125c032369f65d.png

 

Edited by Daniel*
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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

I wouldn't call it fascinating myself more a synoptic mess. The coldest uppers evaporate and we are left with cold rain...that azores high seems ever present and more than just a nuisance 

Better than warm rain? ;)

We are never going to get the perfect synoptics. I would take a cold mess with the chance of some surprise snowfall. 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
9 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

I wouldn't call it fascinating myself more a synoptic mess. The coldest uppers evaporate and we are left with cold rain...that azores high seems ever present and more than just a nuisance 

Yes for ireland cold rain ...not for me though :D

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

At Thursday 00 the ecm has the airmass boundary front just north of Scotland into southern Norway with the other front and rain Scotland to the west coast of Ireland and the UK in a strong, mild south westerly. Over the next 18 hours the rain(front) tracks south east across the country clearing the SE with the surface wind veering NW/N in it's wake as the Arctic airstream plunges south. Thus frequent wintry showers, particularly in the north and coastal areas with gales in Scotland and N. Ireland

The northerly regime persists through Friday and by Saturday 00 the upper trough is aligned to the east with HP ridging into Iceland to the west but coming under pressure from the same areas as in my earlier post.

The jet splitting and winging around the high is a tad further east than the gfs and by 00 Sunday the low is over SW Ireland on it's way south east just clipping the far south west of the UK

ecm_mslp_uv850_natl_6.thumb.png.3b2214bf503a1b9d85c508407202bb26.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_7.thumb.png.9735cd9b9eee2aedc3a810858dc4a8f2.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_8.thumb.png.0e55eb156c71ce50c791183aa2a817dc.pngecm_t850a_5d_natl_11.thumb.png.7c6dc697181e0fba80d1f4bcee38d08e.png

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

As long as the 500 flow remains significantly to the west of the uk and dives south, the low pressure systems will slide in dragging the colder air into the uk. The airmass should be cold enough at the surface 925mb to 1000 for snow for most and the ec snow charts continue to show snow particularly for western regions. 

It would be strange for a significant shift away from the upper flows for gfs and ec at the important t144-168 range. Hence the ens support from both models.  

All this being said the jet is ramping up and unless we see lots of help from northern blocking the pattern will kill itself pretty quickly. 

6DB3A558-0B36-49B7-96E6-097CE46E87B7.png

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
6 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

As long as the 500 flow remains significantly to the west of the uk and dives south, the low pressure systems will slide in dragging the colder air into the uk. The airmass should be cold enough at the surface 925mb to 1000 for snow for most and the ec snow charts continue to show snow particularly for western regions. 

It would be strange for a significant shift away from the upper flows for gfs and ec at the important t144-168 range. Hence the ens support from both models.  

All this being said the jet is ramping up and unless we see lots of help from northern blocking the pattern will kill itself pretty quickly. 

6DB3A558-0B36-49B7-96E6-097CE46E87B7.png

Yes i think thats a very good post- the EC at 120 suggests plenty of snow showers moving through on a keen NW wind, certainly i will be bitterly disappointed if elevated areas round me dont get a good dump thur night into fri with a chart like this-

ECM1-120.GIF?03-12

ECM0-120.GIF?03-12

 

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
27 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Wouldn't there be a weather front trailing down across the country from the LP to the NW?

That's right. Interestingly the beeb 10 day outlook mentioned low pressure at the end from the NW colliding with cold air thus a more substantial snow risk. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Gfs looks great...picking up the slider baton ..

Ukmo on the other hand looks like a 24 hour northerly toppler..:wallbash:

 

Yes, UKMO 144 is pants, worst of season, EC good though going for sliders

 

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