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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I'm sure there is mate - it's just the back of the cold front which I doubt will bring anything notable 

Yes im thinking very cold upper air sourced from Greeny over a warmish sea track..polar low territory potentially..

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
Just now, northwestsnow said:

That is a classic chart !

certainly is, but no slider snow event, looks a better FI than the 12Z coming up

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snowice Seasoned

snowice

Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
Posted
1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Very cold at this stage, but GFS takes the slider miles too far west, ECM way further east

gfs-0-174.png?18

At this range it will go east/ west, at least the cold has set in:cold:

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted
2 minutes ago, John Badrick said:

Rember it can all go pete tong even 48 hours out, don't forget the infamous "That ECM" back in 2012

Do you have to keep reminding us that:nonono::rofl:

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted (edited)

Slider low way way to the west on the 18z, no where near our shores. Still, some wedges of -40c air at 500mb dropping down from Greenland may induce a polar low to the north that could bring more organised snow to northern areas.

86C43A23-C31E-4007-8F24-69DA7BA0A53D.thumb.png.c002f721b9765b578434163ec58acc85.png

Eventually the ridge to our west collapses to allow winds to back westerly, but that’s FI and not worth worrying over for now ...

Edited by Nick F
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Had Worse Maestro

Had Worse

Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
Posted
1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Do you have to keep reminding us that:nonono::rofl:

Suffering from post traumatic stress disorder after that event.

I think we all are:wallbash:

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Unstable Northerly, I'm sure the fax charts will show trough lines swinging south in the arctic flow..how great is it to be talking about arctic air instead of the usual mild zonal mush!:D

Your wish is my command. The T+120 MetO Fax chart has just been updated for Thursday, Dec 7th 1200:

20171202.2147.PPVO89.png

Loads of troughs there with plenty of interest. Obviously, the detail will change but definitely encouraging.

Edited by Guest
Correct typos
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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted

Please can we stick to the models and not clutter up the thread with the wrongs and rights of the BBC!

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Jason Edwards Newbie

Jason Edwards

Posted
Posted

Remember the old saying...get the cold in first...well...

 

gfs-1-198.png?18

No point in getting bogged down into details this far out, there's always likely to be disturbances within the flow and it's great to see the whole of Europe in the freezer. I still think that the door to an Easterly flow is being opened slowly but surely as we head through December and into January when seeing charts like what we are seeing, the constant flip flopping from one day to another shows that things aren't behaving in the normal manner and that has to be a good thing as the normal manner usually involves HP over Azores and lows running over the top through the UK. 

 

Even when this does show up on the models as per + 210 on tonights GFS 

gfs-0-210.png?18

 

it doesn't seem to take long for the cold to find a way back...or the next days runs drop the return to westerly idea completely.

 

Enjoy the cold at the back end of next week and let's see where it goes from there 

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Winter Hill Seasoned

Winter Hill

Posted
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow.. frost. Freezing fog
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
Posted

There is a downbeat feel after the 18z.... I've seen more than enough GFS 18z"s start a new trend or back track 

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snowbob Seasoned

snowbob

Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington
Posted
Just now, Winter Hill said:

There is a downbeat feel after the 18z.... I've seen more than enough GFS 18z"s start a new trend or back track 

Are you for real with that !!!

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markw2680 Accomplished

markw2680

Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
Posted
Just now, Winter Hill said:

There is a downbeat feel after the 18z.... I've seen more than enough GFS 18z"s start a new trend or back track 

What are you on about? If that’s downbeat then there really is a problem

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Snowy L Maestro

Snowy L

Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
Posted (edited)

Yep that run went wrong fairly early. Our trigger low on Thursday further North than the 12z and the low to our east further North and East.

Edited by Snowy L
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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted
Just now, Winter Hill said:

There is a downbeat feel after the 18z.... I've seen more than enough GFS 18z"s start a new trend or back track 

Are you looking at the right 18z? There hasn't been any backtrack. The theme is the same, very cold beyond Thursday with unstable Northerly airlfow and an increased risk of snow.

The only thing that has changed in the back-edge snow for Thursday which was never really "nailed on" anyway, but this is just 1 run. I don't see anyone being downbeat in here? Talks of backtracking are certainly unjustified, backtracking to what? The 18z GFS is solid in terms of cold.

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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted
6 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Slider low way way to the west on the 18z, no where near our shores. Still, some wedges of -40c air at 500mb dropping down from Greenland may induce a polar low to the north that could bring more organised snow to northern areas.

86C43A23-C31E-4007-8F24-69DA7BA0A53D.thumb.png.c002f721b9765b578434163ec58acc85.png

Eventually the ridge to our west collapses to allow winds to back westerly, but that’s FI and not worth worrying over for now ...

A forecast sounding for 12 on the 8th

sounding.thumb.jpg.c68cb52c06e81f84a9d8b3fcfde4968a.jpg

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Winter Hill Seasoned

Winter Hill

Posted
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow.. frost. Freezing fog
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
Posted

For one the backedge snow has gone on the 18z 

That in my book is a back track 

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Snowy L Maestro

Snowy L

Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
Posted
Just now, markw2680 said:

What are you on about? If that’s downbeat then there really is a problem

The 18z for most places will be a few days of dry and cold weather with the odd snow shower folloed by a return to zonal weather. Dont know what is so amazing about that? ECM has been the best today

 

1 minute ago, Danny* said:

Are you looking at the right 18z? There hasn't been any backtrack. The theme is the same, very cold beyond Thursday with unstable Northerly airlfow and an increased risk of snow.

The only thing that has changed in the back-edge snow for Thursday which was never really "nailed on" anyway, but this is just 1 run. I don't see anyone being downbeat in here? Talks of backtracking are certainly unjustified, backtracking to what? The 18z GFS is solid in terms of cold.

We have lost the slider and the pattern over the UK completely flattens 3 days after the Northerly starts. I know this stuff is FI but when compared to the ECM the GFS is terrible.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
5 minutes ago, Bring Back1962-63 said:

Your wish is my command. The T+120 MetO Fax chart has just been updated for Thursday, Dec 7th 1200:

20171202.2147.PPVO89.png

Loads of troughs there with plenty of interest. Obviously, the detail will change but definitely encouraging.

Thanks for showing the new fax chart..exciting times ahead..for the majority of us who love cold weather and snow.:)

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markw2680 Accomplished

markw2680

Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
Posted
1 minute ago, Snowy L said:

The 18z for most places will be a few days of dry and cold weather with the odd snow shower folloed by a return to zonal weather. Dont know what is so amazing about that? ECM has been the best today

 

We have lost the slider and the pattern over the UK completely flattens 3 days after the Northerly starts. I know this stuff is FI but when compared to the ECM the GFS is terrible.

We are talking about the weather for the end of next week so I’m pretty sure there will be many changes in detail etc but the main theme remains so imo there is definitely no backtrack or downgrade or whatever you may wana call it

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Winter Hill said:

For one the backedge snow has gone on the 18z 

That in my book is a back track 

Who cares about back edge snow landing on wet warm ground...... nobody.

troughy snow in frigid air? Everyone. 

D8A0E50D-4FAA-4629-A7C4-EF35E7CDBD0A.thumb.png.d31b5df280c6870df42d006e73fb5292.png95A9DBD7-1C9D-4608-9324-D21E9612EFB9.thumb.png.a0c794a77dea1b16c1dcb9380d784ee8.png

Not to mention a PV that’s lost it’s mum, Dad, brothers and sisters at the park and has no money to get the bus home. It’s all good

ps. Yeah I watched it lol

Edited by karlos1983
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bobbydog Maestro

bobbydog

Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
Posted

before anyone chews their knuckles off over the details of this or any other run, before this point on thursday, there are 20 more GFS runs, and 10 more ECM and UKMO runs each. it can and will change. maybe even for the better....

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Had Worse Maestro

Had Worse

Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
Posted

A back track is a modelled change/ correction from something we think is excellent to something less so.

The weather itself doesn't back track, you get what ever the conditions will allow for.

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