Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Lots of sleet and RAIN 

 

BFTP

Huh?

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

5 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Lots of sleet and RAIN 

 

BFTP

 

You called?

 

[feb1991blizzard]

10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Which channel Karl ??

BBC, it actually showed sliders and mentioned snow from them.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/42200952

[Iceberg]

Some of the most stunning ec eps runs for snow I’ve ever seen. 

Out to 10-11 days many, around 50%ish have considerable snow fall 5-15cm for large chunks of the uk. 

This is the eps master. But various runs have the snow in every section of the uk. 

[Chesil View]

12 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

BBC, it actually showed sliders and mentioned snow from them.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/42200952

Yes just seen the same forecast. Ben Rich showing cold pool with sliders moving into it for week 2.

Edited December 2, 2017 by Broadmayne blizzard

[bluearmy]

8 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Yes just seen the same forecast. Ben Rich showing cold pool with sliders moving for weeke 2.

That forecast made with data from the 00z runs. hopefully that picture shows lows corrected a bit further west in a couple of mins on the news channel! 

[tinybill]

13 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

BBC, it actually showed sliders and mentioned snow from them.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/42200952

news 25  weather week in 2  min

 

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

12 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

Some of the most stunning ec eps runs for snow I’ve ever seen. 

Out to 10-11 days many, around 50%ish have considerable snow fall 5-15cm for large chunks of the uk. 

This is the eps master. But various runs have the snow in every section of the uk. 

I need a cold shower after seeing that... 

[Don]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That forecast made with data from the 00z runs. hopefully that picture shows lows corrected a bit further west in a couple of mins on the news channel! 

Yes, that forecast looked pretty underwhelming to me!

[Winter Hill]

45 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Anything in our neck of the woods feb? 

Probably sleet knowing our luck....that damn warm Irish Sea 

Edited December 2, 2017 by Winter Hill

[tinybill]

Just now, tinybill said:

  bbcnews 24  weather week i are  saying   cold  after  friday  now

 

 

 

 

[Frosty.]

30 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Which channel Karl ??

BBC weather website.

Sorry mods, the charts today are just so exciting for later in the week.

Edited December 2, 2017 by Frosty.

[steveinsussex]

4 minutes ago, tinybill said:

news 25  weather week in 2  min

 

looked mild and wet all week, ugh, 13 degrees down here on thursday

[Met4Cast]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

Yes, that forecast looked pretty underwhelming to me!

Really? Massive blocking, slider lows and the threat of widespread snowfall looked underwhelming? 

The BBC aren't going to be touting the widespread snow forecast for Thursday yet, it's too early and there would be no point in stirring up that kind of hype this far out, especially given the uncertainty and differing solutions still within the model suites.

Edited December 2, 2017 by Danny*

[Allseasons-Si]

The 12z gfs shows us some back edge snowfall as the low pushes away SE,then a cheshire streamer setting up after so plenty going on,i know these charts will change but nice to view

site here.

http://www.myweather2.com/synop/player.aspx?synop=2

[Ice Day]

GFS and ECM at 114 are pretty close....steady as she goes

GFS 

ECM 

[Don]

1 minute ago, Danny* said:

Really? Massive blocking, slider lows and the threat of widespread snowfall looked underwhelming? 

The BBC aren't going to be touting the widespread snow forecast for Thursday yet, it's too early and there would be no point in stirring up that kind of hype this far out, especially given the uncertainty and differing solutions still within the model suites.

They were showing 13C for the south on Thursday so no snow event here!  Fair play though, they can't go into much detail at this stage and I agree overall it looks promising ATM.

[Mokidugway]

Quick question for the professionals , does the IPA effect  change the model output ?? 

[karlos1983]

Just now, Mokidugway said:

Quick question for the professionals , does the IPA effect  change the model output ?? 

Yes, you need a vodka and then go home 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

18Z! looks good, surely not wishbone as winds look NNW'ly, Cheshire streamer

[Snowy L]

Not a good run this. No back edge snow, the low to our east is further away so we are not getting those sharp curves in the isobars that bring precipitation. Rain followed by a cold and dry northerly except for the usual exposed areas.

[Derecho]

One thing I also find encouraging about the model output is the timing of the northerly keeps getting pushed forward, whereas originally it was due to cover the whole UK on Friday evening, the latest GFS shows it arriving in the early hours of Thursday down here.

Anyway, robust heights over Greenland yet again will probably result in the uppers being a tad colder. 



What a fine chart that is.

Edited December 2, 2017 by Quicksilver1989

[Allseasons-Si]

Blimey!!!,that is a clean northerly at 120,i couldn't draw it straighter even when sober

 

[bluearmy]

Gfs finally loses any back edge snow on the cold front - wouldn't expect it to return away from elevation in the north

[andymusic]

bbc and meto will hold off causing a panic until they're sure - 24 hours before the problem or sometimes right on the time it's happening in the past - difficulty with snow - meanwhile tonights gfs 18z