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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

JMA also with the slider later. Plenty of snow in tonight's output

JN192-21.GIF?02-12

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
23 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its too late though, we needed some of it to be wrapped around the low, where is inland PPN coming from?

from the sky....

images-12.thumb.jpg.31f64d62031a369d89b17481686575a7.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, freezes, bitterly cold and icy. Thunderstorms and heatwaves!
  • Location: Lincolnshire

Great news,We have the big three on board now :)

Bad news is the Gem/Jma and icon are not good at all.

I'd love it if we could get all on board. Obviously you'd favour the big three but nothing like a nagging feeling in the back of your head.

Edit.. after looking again, the jma ain't too bad.

Edited by Connor Bailey Degnan
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Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

Very confused after that run. Heights looked very very fragile yet seem enough to slide the low southeast. It doesn't look a plausible run to me but the great news is all roads appear to lead to cold!!! The gfs certainly leading the way this year so far

All in all a great days model watching.

See you all at 4am??

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Snow depths from ec run by t240. Several inches 10-15cm in places. 

Warning though that this is purely an example of potential over the coming 2 weeks rather than a forecast but does chime nicely with the meto forecasts for dec. 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Magnificent run..good riddance mild mush and hello prolonged winter wonderland if this Ecm 12z run verifies..it's gob smackingly good!:yahoo:..Boooooom:bomb::cold-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
4 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Great news,We have the big three on board now :)

Bad news is the Gem/Jma and icon are not good at all.

I'd love it if we could get all on board. Obviously you'd favour the big three but nothing like a nagging feeling in the back of your head.

No need to worry Connor - tonight's BOM is going to be atomic!:oops:

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Nice to see the ECM join the GFS, although variation on a theme at this range. Both models suggest by end of D8 a wedge of upper heights is undercut, keeping the cold coming.

ECM1-192.thumb.gif.70b1af097349df3dc4ce500c4514779d.gifgfs-0-192.thumb.png.f8b5aec1499d337fcc18efd7cacdfba1.png

Details will take some time to clarify but lots of potential with this scenario.

I think BA suggested this a couple of days ago, good spot if it verifies!

The longwave pattern on the ECM is excellent, with a Pacific wave and Arctic High, this keeps the Polar Lows cut off and keeps the Canadian vortex subdued. If that profile is correct then very feasible model output. The initial northerly is certain now so we need consistent runs with the subsequent slider setup...

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Excellent runs from the big three today all programmed for a cold run. Still tiem for plenty of changes yet but a slong as the tilt is towards cold it doesn't matter.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Did anyone spot a wedge ??

Absolutely brilliant call a few days ago Blue...of course its not happened yet but sliders is on the menu.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
10 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Great news,We have the big three on board now :)

Bad news is the Gem/Jma and icon are not good at all.

I'd love it if we could get all on board. Obviously you'd favour the big three but nothing like a nagging feeling in the back of your head.

Edit.. after looking again, the jma ain't too bad.

Ain’t too bad ? Do you usually live in Canada Connor ?? 

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Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Wellingborough

ECM101-216.GIF?02-0gfs-12-216.png?12

Strong indication from the GFS and ECM in the long range for europe to be locked in a significant cold spell.

gfs-5-6.png?12

The jet stream at present is astonishingly weak for the time of year, I see little evidence in the output for a return mild weather conditions once the cold air becomes entrenched

I think a lot of coldies on here were left bitterly dissapointed from the last 2 seasons. But Im now personally convinced that we are in for noteable spell of cold weather, possibly a prolonged one if heights rise to our North East as some posters have hinted at. It's already been fantastic model watching so far this season, which seems to be getting more exciting and promising for cold prospects as times goes on. 

Edited by Zakos
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Posted
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Continental climate, snow winter, sunny summers
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl
10 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Very confused after that run. Heights looked very very fragile yet seem enough to slide the low southeast. It doesn't look a plausible run to me but the great news is all roads appear to lead to cold!!! The gfs certainly leading the way this year so far

All in all a great days model watching.

See you all at 4am??

Similar to 18th Jan 2013, weak wedge of HP near Iceland brought same slider scenario, 15cms in my locale from that fall

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Just now, northwestsnow said:

Absolutely brilliant call a few days ago Blue...of course its not happened yet but sliders is on the menu.

Whilst some areas are favoured in a Northerly flow, this solution is the most likely to bring widespread snowfall 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, bluearmy said:

Whilst some areas are favoured in a Northerly flow, this solution is the most likely to bring widespread snowfall 

Well dont rule out troughs in that northerly later next week :)

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