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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: South Norwood, London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Cold Winters & Warm Dry Summers
  • Location: South Norwood, London
1 hour ago, terrier said:

I want to believe in the gfs this time but unfortunately the way it performs in the stats tells you everything you need to know. Think most places will be more wet than white. Would be interesting to see the ukmo 168 chart. Because I think we are going to see a brief northerly shot at end of week before Atlantic moves back in. Think ecm will be on the money. And it seems the met are edging towards the ecm output from there updates 

If the ECM is on the money then it seems we may be in for our first country wide taste of winter. Of course, we've all been here before and we still need between 24 and 48 hours of output before we can get really excited and even then it could still not go completely right.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

GFS looking a little isolated at t168

imageproxy_php.thumb.gif.af1a17762c93ff3af9417c9341ac5752.gifgem-0-168.thumb.png.68517207bf5815484e258cb57156a30b.pnggfs-0-168.thumb.png.46ee0f0e7d257ef0f51ba84d74875acb.png

The GEM looks more isolated though.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ecm 12z looks great to me..arctic blast incoming with snow showers and increasingly icy with frosts become sharp / severe..another significant step closer!:cold-emoji:

Fun starts midweek in the far north / wed night / thursday for everyone else..lovely stuff...hoping the cold goes on and  on and on..etc..:D

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168_mslp850.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

GFS looking a little isolated at t168

imageproxy_php.thumb.gif.af1a17762c93ff3af9417c9341ac5752.gifgem-0-168.thumb.png.68517207bf5815484e258cb57156a30b.pnggfs-0-168.thumb.png.46ee0f0e7d257ef0f51ba84d74875acb.png

So is the GEM :)

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

From frontal snow at T+192 to synchronised wrist-slitting at T+195?:D

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, northwestsnow said:

Yes EC shows slider scenario...cold air on place at 168-192...potentially amazing..

And the dumping then continues further south at 216.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Just now, Ed Stone said:

From frontal snow at T+192 to synchronised wrist-slitting at T+195?:D

What an EC, Ed, if slider at 192 is far enough west

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast

ECH1-216.GIF?02-0

 

216h well into fi but that is a thing of beauty, especially for us in the low countries 

Edited by ArHu3
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Oh my...this is amazing:cold-emoji:

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
4 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

Cracking t216 chart from ec 100% snow for the south. 

As soon as the lows track se the cold will always return. 

7DB54D89-866E-436A-9FDE-21993CF2E49B.gif

Thames Streamer alert on that ENE wind, :yahoo:

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Well that was nice, a run to quicken the pulse somewhat!!!  Another corker at 240.

ECH1-240.GIF?02-0  ECU0-240.GIF?02-0

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Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.

Beautiful, just beautiful. But we have been here a million times before. Not getting drawn in yet...

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