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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Snow & Snow.
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Looks very similar to GFS at 96- 

as you would expect at that range, next slide is crucial..

Are we all looking away? Im to nervouse to watch lol. ?

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

ECMECM1-120.GIF?02-0GFS gfs-0-120.png?12

 

Not bad GFS still better colder air not as far south.

 

ECM 12z Yesterday for reference.

ECM1-144.GIF?12

Massive improvements, could be it be a win for the GFS?

Edited by SN0WM4N
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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
3 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

It would be nice as haven't seen one for such a long time 

IMG_1445.PNG

Last polar low I believe was in 2015 in Feb. Spawned of the West coast of Scotland and tracked SE.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
1 minute ago, Mokidugway said:

Typical I was out of the country :nonono:

You haven't missed much, it was just wet snow for our region.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Lovely 144 from the ECM - moving towards the GFS but I don't think it's completely there yet. Much better uppers across the UK......I'm moving behind the sofa for the 168

ECH0-144.GIF?02-0  ECH1-144.GIF?02-0

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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Man
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Blizzards, Storms, Hot, Foggy - Infact everything
  • Location: Isle of Man

Looks like the ECM is keeping the energy from Canada further away on this run ! Trending towards GFS ?

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, karyo said:

You haven't missed much, it was just wet snow for our region.

It added another inch to the 2 inches we already had here, anyway I thought it was January.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, lorenzo said:

No complaints for those of a cold persuasion at 144..

ECU0-144.gif

Its too late though, we needed some of it to be wrapped around the low, where is inland PPN coming from?

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its too late though, we needed some of it to be wrapped around the low, where is inland PPN coming from?

Okay, some complaints from those of a cold persuasion..

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

Basically, the 12z ECM is a slower version of the earlier run. Slower in the sense that it doesn't sink the high as fast, allowing colder uppers to move in. Then the Atlantic is coming at a slower pace (168 hours) which may allow for a wedge of high pressure to our north.

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its too late though, we needed some of it to be wrapped around the low, where is inland PPN coming from?

Lovely and cold there going in the right direction.:D

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

ECM1-168.GIF?02-0

Right then, maybe just maybe the ECM will run with the GFS idea here, will the low near Greenland undercut that warm air advection and slide south east close to the UK, leaving a wedge of heights to our north?

Cold end to the week and the start of the weekend with showers falling as snow.

ECM0-144.GIF?02-0   ECM0-168.GIF?02-0

Overall the ECM out of the main three is still the least desirable but still looks to to deliver a reasonable spell of cold weather with showers mainly around the coasts but there is always the chance of a trough carrying them inland, also this could last a good few days with sharp overnight frosts.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its too late though, we needed some of it to be wrapped around the low, where is inland PPN coming from?

Looks fine to me!:yahoo:

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Cold still hanging on at 168 but looks like it may not last much longer? Edit - or maybe I'm wrong????

ECU0-168.GIF?02-0

Edited by Ice Day
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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
3 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Cold still hanging on at 168 but looks like it may not last much longer?

ECU0-168.GIF?02-0

Not sure, I can see trough disruption on that low near Greenland... the wedge of high pressure may be stubborn

image.thumb.png.bbd97bcc8e0d1b7a59ef00d955df8159.png

The block isn't as resilient as the one we see on the GFS but its a step in that direction. Differences in SLP over Greenland are the main differences in the two earlier on.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Posted
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in winter Warm Sunny Summer
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales

Look at the shortwave at the point it buckles the Azores high it's aiming straight for Spain and if this come off there will be locked in cold can it......

IMG_4202.GIF

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