Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

[Frosty.]

11 minutes ago, karyo said:

This is worrying! It will feel like a long wait till the ECM comes out.

I won't sleep tonight now the Icon / Gem isn't on-board!..on the plus side, I get to spend more time on here..mostly fantastic wintry 12z output similar to earlier today..More please Ecm!

Edited December 2, 2017 by Frosty.

[snowice]

5 minutes ago, terrier said:

So the gem follows the ecm of this morning with a brief northerly at end of week. Why do I get the feeling the gfs is leading us up the garden path again. 

It can't follow the ecm if the data is 6 hours ahead of it.

[The PIT]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

^^ so your just ignoring the UKMET^^

Well Met did say this week would be cold on Thursday.

Anyways dunno why people are banging on the brief toppler on Gem and Shown on the ECM while ignoring the next ECM chart showing the reload.  It's all lala land anyway so I wouldn't put much credence on it. GFS lovely just waiting for ECM to come out next.

[SMU]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well its all about opinions steve but i like ukmo 144 today- yes the high will topple but i think there is enough momentum in the trough pushing south to prevent a zonal reset..:)

Look at the energy west of the high pressure it’s split going North East & south / south west- minimal eastward component ... people posting that it’s a ‘toppler’ are the usual crew that want it to happen anyway.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

8 minutes ago, terrier said:

So the gem follows the ecm of this morning with a brief northerly at end of week. Why do I get the feeling the gfs is leading us up the garden path again. 

We all thought 3 days ago it was over as soon as the ECM toppled the high.. One run doesn't mean it's game over. Infact the ECM has tracked towards the GFS regarding the possible winter storm next week. 

[MildCarlilse]

I’m always looking for the models to show a possible route to the classic block.So far pressure has been too high over Iberia,however as long as Northerlies are showing  and being realised we are better placed for longer term cold.

[IDO]

The GEFS are mainly on board at D7, with the Control following the OP, and the mean supportive:

D7:  http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=168

D8:  http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=192

So we would need a complete U-Turn by the GFS suite if the OP is wrong.

Reasonable to expect ECM to move in that direction shortly.

 

[karyo]

2 minutes ago, ShortWaveHell said:

No wonder the CFS has a reputation fraught with distain , it’s chenged it’s entire monthly anomaly within a week ! 

That's good, what about January?

[karlos1983]

Short ENS London look very nice

 

[Mucka]

[northwestsnow]

17 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Look at the energy west of the high pressure it’s split going North East & south / south west- minimal eastward component ... people posting that it’s a ‘toppler’ are the usual crew that want it to happen anyway.

Think we will both be very happy if EC is similar to ukmo tonight...upto now its been an utter pain in the wotsits...something has to give this evening.

[carinthian]

31 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Well another duo of good/very good runs from UKMO and GFS.  Both showing a pretty potent northerly at 144/

  

I would gladly take either of them, although GFS has slightly better heights up towards Greenland and looks like it would have better longevity.  This is terrific model watching at the moment.....and it's only the 2nd December!!!

You would have to assume looking at the comparison that GFS has a longevity to cold compared to UKMO which looks like a shorter and less intense Northerly. Certainly the Met Office text forecast does not go for widespread snowfall with-in this range ,which will be a let down. Scotland maybe. However, changes will occur over the next couple of days and sure fax will be the best guidance to show any potential adjustments ( UK MET )

C

[Frosty.]

This from the Gfs 12z is almost into the reliable timeframe...so close! stunning charts showing full-on winter with snow, drifting, ice, sharp frosts, high windchill!!..what could possibly go wrong??..on second thoughts, don't answer that

[igloo]

13 minutes ago, ShortWaveHell said:

I wouldn’t even bother looking at that , the cfs is a lunatic 

spot on its a joke all it ever shows is dartboard lows every two days for six weeks i have never seen  anything else they would be better to pull it and save some cash

[Iceaxecrampon]

13 minutes ago, ShortWaveHell said:

I mean , for being a week away , that’s startling agreement in its members , it’s been hell bent on this 

Yes.

Wont post but Cumbria ensembles all in agreement not seen such a close match in a while at this range,

[NorthernRab]

22 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

This from the Gfs 12z is almost into the reliable timeframe...so close! stunning charts showing full-on winter with snow, drifting, ice, sharp frosts, high windchill!!..what could possibly go wrong??..on second thoughts, don't answer that

 

Is -12'C 850 hPa for Scotland from an early December northerly not quite exceptional? 

From memory -16'C (maybe -17?) is the record and that was during the depths of a cold winter.

Edited December 2, 2017 by NorthernRab

[Jeremy Shockey]

A remarkable drop in 850 hPa temperatures forecast from 7th Dec onwards

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Relief to see GFS not switched towards EC, if anything brings cold in earlier on Thursday, come on EC, play ball

[Frosty.]

This GEFS 12z mean looks impressive to me..anyone agree??..this is for the coldies

Edited December 2, 2017 by Frosty.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Relief to see GFS not switched towards EC, if anything brings cold in earlier on Thursday, come on EC, play ball

Yeah - hopefully EC will be better this evening- ukmo for me the standard- altho i wouldn't kick GFS out of bed..

[andymusic]

out to 96 ecm matching gfs now so far

Edited December 2, 2017 by andymusic

[bryan629]

potential for a polar low in the relaible `ish

 

 

 

Edited December 2, 2017 by bryan629

[northwestsnow]

Looks very similar to GFS at 96- 

as you would expect at that range, next slide is crucial..

[Mucka]

ECM today V Yesterday. Just like the other models it can struggle at times.

[Mokidugway]

5 minutes ago, bryan629 said:

potential for a polar low in the relaible `ish

 

 

 

It would be nice as haven't seen one for such a long time