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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

ECM is probably going to say no to the ridiculous blizzard (rain more likely) but yes to a cold Northerly outbreak afterwards.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers /snowy winters
  • Location: Peterborough
Just now, Edlav said:

What time does the ECM start running guys?

Now . 6am - 7am

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Posted
  • Location: Coastal Northumberland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, heatwaves and anything extreme
  • Location: Coastal Northumberland

The low sits over the North Sea for 4 days, feeding in snow. This is "potentially" going to be a period to remember.  ECM on board although with the low slightly more North East but still giving us what we crave.  

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

All 3 at t144. All on the same page with small differences. Game on!! Love this trend to firm up over the next couple of days and then we can start looking for details:D

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

All at day 6... well there we have it cross model agreement of sorts an amplified ridge the EC the least unusual since typically it’s the model to go full throttle, and cold cyclonic trough! GFS top this morning wise followed by UKMO it’s more amplified but with less trough disruption I bet the name frame would be a belter so hard to say. All offer wintriness in early to medium timeframe, you can’t complain with that really.

B64C9FF7-3047-41EF-A646-46C53A57BF69.thumb.png.60f7401688b17a81b72cb9e4d3a2fd88.png9CB59A55-C92F-45FA-B81B-1D73948ED6E5.thumb.gif.56a0d45ec4974fa703ad5633dd5abfb8.gif22095C4A-A42C-4DFC-A932-37304BFFB264.thumb.png.3842b151d810053e12a201630bea8c07.png

 

Edited by Daniel*
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ecm has a front and heavy rain impacting the UK by T114 (Weds 1800) with the low west of Ireland and possibly south westerly gales. Over the next 24 hours the low does deepen to 974mb and tracks ENE to be over Oslo whilst the front moves south east bringing heavy rain to all areas. Behind the front the wind veers northerly, perhaps touching gale force in the north,  accompanied by frequent wintry showers before a transient ridge edges in on Saturday which rapidly gives way to the next frontal system arriving from the north west with more rain and gales. At which point there is an 140kt jet dipping SE just west of the UK

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: North Tyneside
  • Location: North Tyneside

So excited viewing this mornings runs. Going to be an interesting time ahead with that low being in the north sea as I'm in Northumberland and we've got a flag display to do! :rofl: Good to see the agreement too across the models.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

EC is trying it wouldn’t take significant change for something much more wintry and dare I say it snowy. Credit where it’s due to GFS too often it is cast aside. :good: 

Deeply interesting start to meteorological winter..

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Just for info

ECM has the initial front on Thursday as rain with snow over hills. However on Friday night it produces a trough in the flow that gives a covering to most of England/Wales by Saturday morning. Rain returns later in the weekend (though ECM, once again, looks alone on this,).

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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
56 minutes ago, Edlav said:

What time does the ECM start running guys?

Welcome.

Another Fylde Coaster.

Leave now for the sake of your sanity :D

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Not overly enthused with that EC det.

Need corrections south with the low at 120-144... and its MUCH less amplified than either UKMO or GFS.

Looks wet for most apart from a brief 24 hour window- we lose the cold uppers through saturday- ominously it looks and sounds like the meto update- rain moving in through the weekend...

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
36 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Just for info

ECM has the initial front on Thursday as rain with snow over hills. However on Friday night it produces a trough in the flow that gives a covering to most of England/Wales by Saturday morning. Rain returns later in the weekend (though ECM, once again, looks alone on this,).

But it might be alone but it ties in with the meto update overnight!!

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Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Not overly enthused with that EC det.

Need corrections south with the low at 120-144... and its MUCH less amplified than either UKMO or GFS.

Looks wet for most apart from a brief 24 hour window.

Yeah agree room for improvement but there is still time for change even if the ECM meets the Ukmo/Gfs half way at 120 hrs we should still get a decent snow event.

Anything after 144hrs is up in the air (as Always)until they pin down the track of the low.

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
4 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Anyone got the UKMO 0z 168hr chart?

Where does that chart come from by the way?

Here it is:D

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Ec mean due out- hopefully will be better than the Det!! After viewing the GEFS 00z that EC run would be a pretty BIG mild outlier in the suite!!

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
13 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Nah I think the ukmo will be right;):cold-emoji::bomb: boom!

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I still think the ukmo will be right!!..BOOM;):cold-emoji::bomb:

UKMOPEU00_144_1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

TBF the EC mean at day 10 looks OK, scandy low sinking south into Europe,only issue is the azores high- hopefully the cold trough will drop anchor across southern France..

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meanwhile events in the strat could begetting intersting-zonal winds forecast  to start dropping off again!!

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

GEM is very similar to EC - less than amplified at 144- further on its the jet diving SE into Europe preventing the azrs high ridging into Europe.

As mentioned previously although the jet is running into Europe we lack the cold uppers a wedge of high pressure to our north or north east would bring.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
26 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

UKMO day 7

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pretty chipper Northerly!

It's difficult to ascertain where it would go from there as we don't get to see the nh profile but following gfs and continuation of the northerly theme is a distinct possibility wouldn't you say?

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