Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

[Daniel*]

3 minutes ago, CanadaAl said:

Very impressive run. Pressure charts might not look as good as the 18Z but precipitation charts are a lot better. If only we can see that low drop into europe and a scandi ridge form, that'd be the icing on the cake 

It is indeed snowfall working it’s way down S the spine of the country at T+150.

If this were to materialise I’m sure some in the high ground of the north will need to be buried out! 

At least the GFS is being consistent  

[CanadaAl]

1 minute ago, ShortWaveHell said:

How aren’t the MetO forecasting a northerly yet in their outlook !?!?, their model has looked primed for it ! GFS just isn’t letting go of the idea at all ! 

the MetO are the ones who forecast a mild winter for 09/10 and we know how that turned out. I think they always want to err on the side of caution and wait until at least 5 days out

[Daniel*]

Delete

 

Edited December 2, 2017 by Daniel*

[Daniel*]

Slider low territory? Further on with a wedge of +ve heights to NW I think 2013 had something similar. I’d take this to the BANK no questions asked. Best run of the season so far for the white stuff. 

.

 

Edited December 2, 2017 by Daniel*

[Mucka]

When the MetO talked of slow moving systems, I'm not sure they had a low just sitting over the North sea for 3 days+ in mind.

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

Ukmo a beauty 

[SMU]

Look at the UKMO Blocking

EPIC -AO

[feb1991blizzard]

How about GFS FI for a huge -AO

[feb1991blizzard]

Well something has to give soon, either a model run or human forecast, its not going to be the 0z GEFS suite, if anything they're even better than the 18z.

[northwestsnow]

26 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Look at the UKMO Blocking

EPIC -AO

That will do me stevey boy!!!!!CARNAGE !!!!

PS if EC doesn't come on board this morning  i officially give up!!

[booferking]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Well something has to give soon, either a model run or human forecast, its not going to be the 0z GEFS suite, if anything they're even better than the 18z.

They have already mentioned in the week ahead good chance northerly winds return so its no secret it's in there forecast.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b09gsflt/weather-for-the-week-ahead-02122017

[SLEETY]

2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

While we wait for the 00z runs it might be worth bearing in mind Exeter have updated their outlook a short time ago and again there is very little mention of snow next week...mainly wind and rain followed by wintry showers and then a wet weekend....

In other words they are having absolutely nothing to do with recent GFS ops or for that matter the GEFS.

 

That’s the same as bbc forecast last night cold after midweek as a Northerly wind come back then maybe a NW wind next weekend-however you do realise that update was written before this morning runs,so probably change anyway.

 

Both gfs ukmo agree it’s turning colder again and maybe stormy too.Who knows exactly after 5 days ahead.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, booferking said:

They have already mentioned in the week ahead good chance northerly winds return so its no secret it's in there forecast.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b09gsflt/weather-for-the-week-ahead-02122017

Yes but the text forecast....

[booferking]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes but the text forecast....

Ec show same in an hour they will update today.

[cheshire snow]

4 minutes ago, booferking said:

Ec show same in an hour they will update today.

I don' think they will update anything until Monday at the earliest,still alot of uncertainty 

Dispite the fantastic UKMO and GFS this morning 

Just IMO though.

C.S. 

[geordiekev]

Kudos to GFS if we get any cold shot in the period showing as it has been touting the idea for a good few days,  even in the face of  ridicule for it being in 10+ day range. 

It really is like a dog with a bone at times and that's why I lurvs it when it does find cold trends in Winter as I'm on the hunt for my 5th day of falling snow and a top up soon before its all disappeared.

Cmon ECM, last one to the party brings the ICE 

[knocker]

Most places today will be cloudy with rain and light drizzle as a weak warm front slips down the country. More concentrated in the west and south west with the south east more likely for sunny intervals. Scotland more general rain and quite windy on a cold front. This will clear Scotland and the north of England overnight and into tomorrow but cloud and drizzle may linger further south. Temps milder than of late.

By Monday 12 the general synopsis in the Atlantic arena and north west Europe is not unfamiliar. The main trough to the south west off the eastern seaboard stretching north east, high pressure to the south west of the UK ridging north and the other trough to the NE/E. This translates on the surface to a complex low pressure area to the south west stretching north with an associated front which then runs east south of Iceland as it runs around the high cell still parked over the UK and centred south of Ireland. This front is quite active as it sits on the boundary of the cold and warm air and wave depressions form on it and run east over the next 24 hours as the main trough the south west pushes north east. Thus by Tuesday there are quite strong westerly winds over Scotland as the front nudges south whilst at the same time the low out in the Atlantic is pushing north east.

Over the next 24 hours this general movement continues and by Wednesday 12 the front and rain are orientated over Scotland whilst the low is 997mb south west of Ireland with the high pressure just about hanging on in the south. And there is a marked delineation between the cold and warm air,

What happens next is quite complex to put it mildly (according to the gfs anyway). As the low moves east across the UK and the front south various centers form in the main trough but the general picture is for rain spreading east over most of the country with quite possibly snow on the northern edge of the front over N. Ireland, Scotland and N. England.The low deepens and tracks east to be near Oslo by 18 on Thursday which, with the help of amplifying high pressure in the Atlantic initiates very strong northerly gales over the UK with many squally wintry showers, particularly in the north, and even perhaps more concentrated falls of snow there.

The northerly regime remains over the weekend, albeit abating all the while, as the low, after initially deepening further, slowly fills in the north Sea as the upper trough is sandwiched between the two ridges and slips slowly south. But wait, what's now happening in the north west? best left here as all this detail at the end of next week is just that at the moment and many changes await.

Edited December 2, 2017 by knocker

[northwestsnow]

1 hour ago, ShortWaveHell said:

How aren’t the MetO forecasting a northerly yet in their outlook !?!?, their model has looked primed for it ! GFS just isn’t letting go of the idea at all ! 

Thats the thing - its concerning, i almost wish EC was cancelled this morning, im sure it will ruin my mood...

[northwestsnow]

Well both GFS and UKMO look fabulous... i just checked the temps on GFS 0z and its cold, at times really cold for a good week or so...

Is anyone else dreading EC?

I know i am.

[mountain shadow]

Come on ECM, don't let us down.

In fairness the ECM 0z have been more amplified than the 12z, so everything crossed.

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Come on ECM, don't let us down.

In fairness the ECM 0z have been more amplified than the 12z, so everything crossed.

You have no idea how hacked off im going to be if its anything like its last 2 runs...surely the weight of gfs00z/Gefs/ukmo have to bear down..

Ps northerly..tight isobars...warmish north sea surely wont be dry!

Edited December 2, 2017 by northwestsnow

[knocker]

 One thing I meant to add to my post above regarding the severe gales the gfs is indicating, They are very much dependent on  the explosive cyclogenesis between T120 and T144 as the low moves into the North Sea, I would have thought this must remain a tad problematic although I have no logical meteorological reasoning for saying this.

[Iceaxecrampon]

17 minutes ago, geordiekev said:

Kudos to GFS if we get any cold shot in the period showing as it has been touting the idea for a good few days,  even in the face of  ridicule for it being in 10+ day range. 

It really is like a dog with a bone at times and that's why I lurvs it when it does find cold trends in Winter as I'm on the hunt for my 5th day of falling snow and a top up soon before its all disappeared.

Cmon ECM, last one to the party brings the ICE 

Good post. 

Yes the GFS has picked up the trend in the past weeks with the Northerlies once it latches on to something terrier like it doesn't want to let go. Phenomenal 18 and 00z runs though. 

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech

if this  dont happen after 132 hr and our weather  goes boom  i go and  bye a  norwich city football shirt!!!

=6

Edited December 2, 2017 by tinybill

[mountain shadow]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

You have no idea how hacked off im going to be if its anything like its last 2 runs...surely the weight of gfs00z/Gefs/ukmo have to bear down..

Ps northerly..tight isobars...warmish north sea surely wont be dry!

I would amazed if the ECM doesn't come on board.  The GFS and Ukmo would amazingly wrong otherwise.