Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

[northwestsnow]

EC very very similar to UKMO 96...

[MR EXTREMES]

Northerly rest of the run from ECM.

It's gonna get cold for sure.

This little cold spell is a shock to the system what's coming is much colder.

[northwestsnow]

Hmmmmmm- first signs of differences on the deep low coming out of canada at 120- 

[Optimus Prime]

3 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

Northerly rest of the run from ECM.

It's gonna get cold for sure.

This little cold spell is a shock to the system what's coming is much colder.

Yes, perhaps even uncomfortably numb?

[mountain shadow]

Nothing like two consecutive posts which contradict one another. 

[Eskimo]

ECM edging slowly towards the GFS?


GFS

[bluearmy]

Ecm slightly sharper on Alaska and a little shallower on Greenland than ukmo - not a great deal but be interesting to see what diff tha makes at day 6

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, PerfectStorm said:

ECM edging slowly towards the GFS?


GFS

not as good, next day to have milder air from NW, looks to be 12 hour toppler

[MR EXTREMES]

The Azores high has nowhere to go but northwest could be a seriously cold fi. 

[Eskimo]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

not as good, next day to have milder air from NW, looks to be 12 hour toppler

No nowhere near as good, but the low is much further south than the 0z.

[bluearmy]

Flatter upstream with the American vortex pushing east again - not quite flip flop but not far short 

[Joe Watts]

A little different to the gfs ?

[SMU]

ECMs rubbish again - fed up with it TBH-

was to flat with this current cold spell-

[bluearmy]

I wonder how far west that next system can drop. 

[Frostbite1980]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECMs rubbish again - fed up with it TBH-

was to flat with this current cold spell-

Yet it verifies better than GFS......you can’t rule it out unfortunately 

[snowice]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

ECMs rubbish again - fed up with it TBH-

was to flat with this current cold spell-

By that you mean it's modeling it wrong like the last 24 hours when it was wrong at +96

[nick sussex]

We're seeing a bit of a reversal here. Normally its the GFS which is flatter upstream but in recent runs its been the ECM.

 

[Britneyfan]

GFS is drunk, that will not happen, it will either be watered down a lot or disappear altogether by nearer the time 

[bluearmy]

in a strange way not unhappy to see a hemispherically flattish ec op run in that at least we can see what effect that has in the strat re zonal flow by day 10

[northwestsnow]

8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECMs rubbish again - fed up with it TBH-

was to flat with this current cold spell-

Me too steve..and it will most likely be right.

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Me too steve..and it will most likely be right.

Nah I think the ukmo will be right boom!

[nick sussex]

Even with the ECM being more progressive a good sign is the Azores high shows no signs of ridging east. So it threw everything east and still didn't manage that.

So I'd take that as a positive.

[Frank Trough]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Me too steve..and it will most likely be right.

Indeed. Much more realistic but at least colder side of average which in recent Decembers is an achievement in itself.

Edited December 1, 2017 by Certain kind of fool

[feb1991blizzard]

11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECMs rubbish again - fed up with it TBH-

was to flat with this current cold spell-

Its usually the other way - too amplified, so you don't think it will verify then?

[Ice Day]

ECM has a go at getting heights up to Greenland at 216.....is it finally starting to smell the Starbucks

The day 10 'could' be a belter