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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
21 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Still looking at something quite far out, but an interesting theme as I think BlueArmy mentioned somewhere developing D8-D15 - the theme of lows diving NW-SE into cold air ahead of the UK, with plentiful marginal snow events on the leading edge.

GFS 06 op has this (T300, after a near miss at T264)

gfs-0-300.png?6 ECM clusters: the two main clusters at T240 have potential for this: ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2017120100_240.

and both D13 clusters could lead to this as well:       ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2017120100_324.

Thanks for posting these clusters with each run - very useful for getting a quick overview without even having to navigate away from the forum :good:
I just brought myself back to reality with a bang when it hit me how much of a forecaster's nightmare the GFS 06z what with those multiple marginal events all over the country :shok::D

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Absolute corker!

It is Indeed   shows aswell lower uppers on quite a few compared to the OPP    looking good   these are for Brum  so further south may also be in with a chance of the white stuff

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

much more support on the ensembles 

graphe3_1000_240_83___.gif

Tell you what, WP - if that plunge makes it to T+120, I'll start to get excited...until then, I'll assume it to be yet another infamous GFS red herring?:cold::D

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

No comment on anyone in particular but can we have a set place in the uk for the ensembles to be posted from unless a point is trying to be made about a specific location. 

On the approaching trough end next week, where you choose for the ens graph could have a big effect run to run. 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

No comment on anyone in particular but can we have a set place in the uk for the ensembles to be posted from unless a point is trying to be made about a specific location. 

On the approaching trough end next week, where you choose for the ens graph could have a big effect run to run. 

True but you can find out where the ensembles are for, just tap the co-ordinates into google and it will show you a map with the exact point on it.

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Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .

Just looked at the 6z and what a feast for cold-lovers' eyes that is. Perhaps the most important considerations are that 1. the trend is once again favourable and 2. the ensembles are giving support.

There's a long way to go, in that we're talking about 5 to 6 days for the low to drag the northerly regime back but this is extremely encouraging.

If the trend does continue this way then we may see some epic runs over the next day or two. We all know that it may go pear-shaped but this is the most encouraging start to winter I can remember for a very long time. Dare one mention 1978/9 or does that put the mockers on it? Certainly some synoptic similarities in terms of northerly / north-easterly orientation. The east coast low next week would be a peach.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Amazing 6z full of wintry reloads and the jet digging well south..sidney looks worried!:D:cold:

imageproxy.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Good support for another cold spell to develop later next week and through to mid-December

graphe_ens3_tzq2.thumb.gif.d1d9b5894790640d2118ae219fc91462.gif

around  05

they look good to me - majority plunge of the cliff as that low passes through  next Friday - with a nice cluster flat-line -5 to follow. Plenty  of time and support for a gentle drift down to -7/-8

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Amazing 6z full of wintry reloads and the jet digging well south..sidney looks worried!:D:cold:

imageproxy.gif

Then again, it's sure to keep his nuts fresh?

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
20 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Absolute corker!

Yep even London ensembles on the GEFS 6z are a corker . Lots off flat lining ??. 

IMG_0701.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Yep even London ensembles on the GEFS 6z are a corker . Lots off flat lining ??. 

IMG_0701.PNG

 

12 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Good support for another cold spell to develop later next week and through to mid-December

graphe_ens3_tzq2.thumb.gif.d1d9b5894790640d2118ae219fc91462.gif

 

Yes, Normally i would be very sceptical of those uppers in the low res, particularly if they were all PM incursions, they tend to deliver slushfests on the main drag while you look up and the mountains have massive drifts on them, but there is some support for battleground /slider / undercutter solutions and you can have a non-marginal snowfall with those uppers and synoptics

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Indeed knocks - tbh, I seem to recall some of your posts from the snow fest wintry  periods of four/ five years ago being quite enthusiastic .....

the London eps T2’s are perhaps not as impressive as they might be given the anomolys and clusters but then under cyclonic cold the surface isn’t going to be v chilly without snowcover and we know how unpredictable that is 

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
18 minutes ago, knocker said:

If I may clarify a point here. I have absolutely no idea who are members of the so called "mildness" gang but I am certainly not one of them. It is no secret that I detest cold weather and I do so mainly for two reasons. Firstly, the imprint of 62-63 will forever remain with me and secondly, and far more importantly, as a vulnerable, elderly pensioner, and of course I'm not alone here, cold weather very much affects my health. But none of that is relevant as to how I approach the model output, which in my very simplistic manner, is based purely and simply on a meteorological analysis. Preferences and deliberate bias are no go areas.

tbh I only really start getting excited about cold prospects when i see you get on board.  And there have been such occasions lately - as would be natural in such times of model volatility as we have been seeing - when i have detected you alluding to the prospects of it turning cold and snowy.  It's just that you have to read your posts to detect those occasions rather than shortcut by means of any smileys used!  :)   Keep up the good work...it's much appreciated

Edited by Timmytour
spelling!
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

now I know I'm not it's biggest fan, far from it actually BUT........ the CFS still shows a very upset, disorganised PV into the new year, with the AO still negative. Got to be a good thing! **Probably best not to look at the end of the run mind***

cfsnh-0-900.thumb.png.5faff7120acf5fc2405c9afc37932584.png73c7dc4a055e000e7beded4810b06d58a966f820d7795e4df72f9c4fbcfbd873.thumb.jpg.80dab14293d5d58a9c0570505078d6c8.jpg

 

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