Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

So ECM was out of whack yesterday evening, not surprising I suppose given lack of EPS support. The blocking to the NE remains closer than GFS has it though - a very typical difference between the two models there.

gfsnh-0-168.png?6 gfsnh-1-168.png?6

gfs-0-180.png?6

Yikes. This would feel dang cold and the storm track could push quite a bit of water down the N. Sea so coastal concerns there.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, Steve Murr said:

Peak blocking now establishing as we head into the 9th...

IMG_1488.thumb.PNG.1b8a316fec7513ad5e460a3cf4f94c40.PNG

awsome 2 wave pattern!!

Looks potentially snow for many steve.. gawd i hope its on the right track..

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Peak blocking now establishing as we head into the 9th...

IMG_1488.thumb.PNG.1b8a316fec7513ad5e460a3cf4f94c40.PNG

awsome 2 wave pattern!!

So different from 00z though, hope it's onto something 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

We are it seems, as is quite often the case, heading towards a 'Day-Ten Spiffer'...Unless of course, a mysterious shortage of balloon-data intercedes?:crazy:

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

So different from 00z though, hope it's onto something 

It has to be a good thing we are seeing improvements as we get closer. doesn't often happen once the models start to take a step back from a cold outlook. More runs needed for consensus, but promising for sure. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

I was just thinking about those U.S. regional outlooks Nick shared on here that were keen on the Canadian vortex lobe staying in N. America rather than ejecting to Greenland.
gfsnh-0-186.png?6
This illustrates that idea very nicely and you know what, the 00z ECM wasn't that far away from achieving the same if one applies the adjustments suggested by the 00z EPS as reported by BA earlier (thanks as always for your updates!).

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
2 minutes ago, Singularity said:

I was just thinking about those U.S. regional outlooks Nick shared on here that were keen on the Canadian vortex lobe staying in N. America rather than ejecting to Greenland.
gfsnh-0-186.png?6
This illustrates that idea very nicely and you know what, the 00z ECM wasn't that far away from achieving the same if one applies the adjustments suggested by the 00z EPS as reported by BA earlier (thanks as always for your updates!).

So states goes into freezer and UK goes into freezer at same time not often that happens.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, radiohead said:

Some serious coastal flooding concerns I'd imagine if this happened.

180-289UK.GIF?01-6180-515UK.GIF?01-6

And a blizzard for some parts.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

gfsnh-0-222.png?6

Intriguing but nothing more at that range. 
The major changes setting up the more restrained Canadian lobe movement occur in the 5-6 day range but model volatility has been so extreme lately that I'm not sure how encouraged I can be by that :unknw:.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

With such variances in the polar profile on offer from the ops, run to run, its very tough to get a handle on how to use them to adjust the ens to give a decent call on later week 2

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

With such variances in the polar profile on offer from the ops, run to run, its very tough to get a handle on how to use them to adjust the ens to give a decent call on later week 2

GFS6Z digging the trough really quite far south(into europe) Blue- although i wouldnt be suprised if its over doing the low...

Edited by northwestsnow
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl
  • Weather Preferences: WHITE GOLD
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl
49 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

True but its below 1 inch for the vast majority.

Netweather GFS ImageLook at the difference in temps 

I have no idea why that quote from feb1991 is there!!!

Edited by Fozfoster
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, Fozfoster said:

Netweather GFS ImageLook at the difference in temps 

Sorry, I was talking about the ECM.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

If the current direction of travel verifies around day 8 then we seem to be honing in on this trough disruption across Western Europe theme. This op feeds into it just to our east as the ec op did but the spread on the eps says the envelope to our west is considerable. 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington

Nice run from the 6z   quite a few areas experiencing a rain to snow event   infact some places could get 2 days of snow   cold digging south all the way to North Africa  Bone chilling windchill   and with movement for upgrades  particularly on the snow and uppers.  All in all very good run.  and at least we seem to be getting a little consistancy within the models at short time frame.   lovely start to winter

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

If the current direction of travel verifies around day 8 then we seem to be honing in on this trough disruption across Western Europe theme. This op feeds into it just to our east as the ec op did but the spread on the eps says the envelope to our west is considerable. 

Hopefully the ops are correc- 6Z is full of wintry suprises !!

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

@knocker - even the gfs op finds the mean upper ridge heading east days 13/15. Surely just a co-incidence ??

btw, the back end of the gfs run = wedge !! (Ref yesterday morning )

Edited by bluearmy
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Snow & Snow.
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
30 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

My money is on this being the first :db:M4 corridor North :db: event of the season. :wallbash: I'm going to remove that road one day.

Dont mention the M4 corridor  :wallbash::D

 

 But seriously  im happy with how things are heading .. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Still looking at something quite far out, but an interesting theme as I think BlueArmy mentioned somewhere developing D8-D15 - the theme of lows diving NW-SE into cold air ahead of the UK, with plentiful marginal snow events on the leading edge.

GFS 06 op has this (T300, after a near miss at T264)

gfs-0-300.png?6

ECM clusters: the two main clusters at T240 have potential for this:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2017120100_240.

and both D13 clusters could lead to this as well:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2017120100_324.

 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL

With this chart for around next Thursday and beyond the following weekend. 

Some very stormy weather indeed along with snow/ rain.

I've also noticed later on in the run . A 1045mb high pressure. West of the uk over the Atlantic that potentially. 

Leaves me thinking about the possibility of the models struggling to grasp much more beyond next Friday. 

I know that's generally the case.

But I'll be watching the coming days with interest. Given my location. 

Storm force winds from this direction at this time of year." close roads and make enormous snow drifts.

17120718_0106.gif

Edited by sorepaw1
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

Yes please! If this is how we are trending, more of the same from the subsequent models please. IMO a much more realisitc evolution than the majority we have seen of late.

GFSOPNH06_201_1.thumb.png.29fc988ec56a504be06bf197e23f2001.png

This is just what we want to see.The period around 9th does indeed seem to be the one to watch (as Steve Murr has been pointing out for quite a while). The meridional jet looks increasing likely to dive southwards over us and drag a viscious delicious looking low with it. Not only does it bring massive opportunites for some serious back edge snow for many in the UK, this, assuming it can dig down low enough, is potentially Nirvana for the Alps, both in terms of timing and associated snowfall. It was already looking like the best start to the skiing season for a good number of years, this would be the icing,

Edited by s4lancia
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...