Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

[frosty ground]

Just your typical Euro high and Azores high nothing to see here......

Actually there is, pretty sure it's a matter of when not if. The longer ranger pattern regardless of next weeks northerly has been and continues to be high pressure sat in the Atlantic leading to bouts of polar air from the north.

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I still have delusions that the snowmagheddon Gfs 6z will verify.☺????

Careful Karl...folks have been sent to Broadmoor for less than that!

[booferking]

If i was to choose any chart @144 tonight it would be UKMO couple of frames later it should show a nice Northerly just like Gfs 6z @Frosty.

[Walsall Wood Snow]

11 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

A deluded part of me still thinks it will turn colder next week

I think you're probably right. Seems to be a bit of a rinse and repeat pattern lately anyway. As for the models they're probably just struggling to get a grip, in these unusual circumstances, as they're not used to dealing with these sort of synoptics. I'm sure tomorrow one or two of the big 3 will start showing nirvana again.

[bobbydog]

well... i suppose we'll see a return to a standard zonal december for the forseeable, since the stratospheric vortex is becoming stronger and more organised.

oh wait.... its not!!

winter is far from over....

 

(partly because is hasn't even started yet!)

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, booferking said:

If i was to choose any chart @144 tonight it would be UKMO couple of frames later it should show a nice Northerly just like Gfs 6z @Frosty.

Absolutely agree...next week could still prove very interesting..or exciting even

Edited November 30, 2017 by Frosty.

[russell k]

15 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

This thread is a mix of analysis and the occasional toys out of prams. We’re not the BBC giving a forecast . And the ups and downs and some of the melodrama and humour in here are part and parcel of the success of these forums .

Coldies in here are not your average members of the public , the majority are snow lovers who are passionate and so no I don’t want a dry humourless emotionless thread just discussing the track of a low.

Yes of course you want to see some analysis and there’s lots of that in here,  but at times it’s going to happen that we might lose it and and have the occasional moan.

Best quote of the day

("Now I Know what a Short wave is!)

[phil nw.]

No clear path yet to a weeks time then.Still cold air lurking just to the north by then but the question of how far south will it come.

A look at 2 graphs from the gefs-C England and C Scotland

The dip again around the same dates-- 7/8th December with the Scottish data pretty clear cut and further south still in the balance.Based on these we could still see this sharp divide between the air masses with snow over the boundary areas.

[nick sussex]

Frustratingly the MJO forecasts haven’t updated for two days . Very bad timing for that to happen .

We might be seeing some conflicting messages in the outputs and more volatility than normal .

This displaced Azores high in the ECM  has me wondering.

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, russell k said:

Best quote of the day

("Now I Know what a Short wave is!)

Me too

Still lots of model uncertainty this evening regarding next midweek onwards, hopefully the picture will become clearer in the next few days.

[karlos1983]

ECM shows no interest in the much discussed Tropical Cyclone near the Philippines... so maybe a non starter.

[Devonshire]

19 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

This thread is a mix of analysis and the occasional toys out of prams. We’re not the BBC giving a forecast . And the ups and downs and some of the melodrama and humour in here are part and parcel of the success of these forums .

Coldies in here are not your average members of the public , the majority are snow lovers who are passionate and so no I don’t want a dry humourless emotionless thread just discussing the track of a low.

Yes of course you want to see some analysis and there’s lots of that in here,  but at times it’s going to happen that we might lose it and and have the occasional moan.

I think you are bang-on - although some shouldn't be surprised at being called out as 'towel-tossers', toy-chuckers' and - dare I say it 'bed-wetters' (no offence meant against any genuinely affected enuresis sufferers.

back to models - my flabber was pleasantly gasted by tonight's ECM run - later stages. Has anyone got any stats about 10 day verification gfs vs ecm ops?

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, Devonshire said:

I think you are bang-on - although some shouldn't be surprised at being called out as 'towel-tossers', toy-chuckers' and - dare I say it 'bed-wetters' (no offence meant against any genuinely affected enuresis sufferers.

back to models - my flabber was pleasantly gasted by tonight's ECM run - later stages. Has anyone got any stats about 10 day verification gfs vs ecm ops?

Here you go, hope this link helps:

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/

 

[weirpig]

While we are between runs may I ask we're is the north. I hear this expression a lot on met office website and BBC reports i.e. "Snow in the north"  rain in the south. Would you think it's a line through the country  or is it the BBC rule and anything to the north of Watford is classed as the north  I wish someone would put a definitive line on we're the divide  is 

[Dean E]

 

1 hour ago, Optimus Prime said:

So whilst we're all looking for and expecting extreme December weather (2010/2015) what we are actually more than likely going to get is, ordinary early December weather? 

 

 

1 hour ago, karlos1983 said:

Not sure where I said that to be honest.  

Yeah not sure @karlos1983 mentioned anything along the lines of what you were saying @Optimus Prime..

Below average is where we are right now, with a Northerly spell, slowly returning to near average at the weekend for most. Next week, well that's any ones guess right now! 

[daz_4]

27 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

well... i suppose we'll see a return to a standard zonal december for the forseeable, since the stratospheric vortex is becoming stronger and more organised.

oh wait.... its not!!

winter is far from over....

 

(partly because is hasn't even started yet!)

Please, the warming at 380 has been there for at least ten days now. It is not getting closer. And yes, looks like the vortex will rebound.

[Frosty.]

14 minutes ago, weirpig said:

While we are between runs may I ask we're is the north. I hear this expression a lot on met office website and BBC reports i.e. "Snow in the north"  rain in the south. Would you think it's a line through the country  or is it the BBC rule and anything to the north of Watford is classed as the north  I wish someone would put a definitive line on we're the divide  is 

I always thought it was the M4 corridor

Anyway, there have been some positives today, the Gfs 6z top of the list and now the ukmo 12z looks like it's primed to pull the trigger and enable another Northerly through the second half of next week...hopes are still alive for some excitement next week..hopefully not the word that sounds similar to excitement if you know what I mean

Edited November 30, 2017 by Frosty.

[nick sussex]

12 minutes ago, weirpig said:

While we are between runs may I ask we're is the north. I hear this expression a lot on met office website and BBC reports i.e. "Snow in the north"  rain in the south. Would you think it's a line through the country  or is it the BBC rule and anything to the north of Watford is classed as the north  I wish someone would put a definitive line on we're the divide  is 

I tend to think of the north as anywhere from the Peak District northwards.

 

[weirpig]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I tend to think of the north as anywhere from the Peak District northwards.

 

Yes I reckon there is a door by derby one side people drink pimms and play polo  the other side people breed whippets and point at the moon in wonder  anyway has the t168 ukmo been issued yet hopefully that will be an improvement on the ecm 

[nick sussex]

I'm still waiting for the NOAA updated monthly forecast but in the meantime the New York state forecast calls into question the outputs which remove the Greenland block too quickly.

It's a long read but well worth it.

Looking farther ahead, the major pattern change that starts to take
shape Wednesday will mature by the end of next week. Long range
ensemble guidance is an excellent agreement with this pattern
change, and has only grown stronger with forecast blocking over the
past few days. The anomalously strong and eastward extending East
Asian Jet is in the process of weakening, and this will allow for a
strong amplification of the Pacific wave train. This will force the
downstream pattern across North America to strongly amplify, with a
strengthening ridge along the west coast and a deep longwave trough
carving out over central and eastern North America. At the same
time, blocking over Greenland will strengthen.

The increasing high latitude blocking will project on an
increasingly strong negative AO (Arctic Oscillation), with the
Greenland Block forcing a negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation).
The western ridge/eastern trough and amplification farther west in
the Pacific will force an increasingly positive PNA (Pacific North
American) pattern.

The coupling of a negative NAO and positive PNA pattern will result
in an extended period of below normal temperatures and active winter
weather for the Great Lakes starting late next week, and lasting for
an extended period of time. The first few days of the pattern change
late next week will be routine cold, but after about December 10th
there are increasing signals in long range ensemble guidance that
several blasts of true arctic air may be in play for the Great Lakes
and Northeast. Obviously details are impossible to predict at this
time range, but the large scale pattern suggests the possibility of
numerous high impact lake effect snow events starting late next week
or next weekend, and continuing through the middle of December. Stay
tuned.
 

The upstream pattern is really one that should help downstream for UK coldies, the fact they mention an extended period of time is good. Of course energy being thrown east into the Atlantic will run towards the UK but it should be angled more favourably.

The displaced Azores high would be as a result of that upstream amplitude in the east USA with that troughing.
 

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended wet and windy

[weirpig]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I'm still waiting for the NOAA updated monthly forecast but in the meantime the New York state forecast calls into question the outputs which remove the Greenland block too quickly.

It's a long read but well worth it.

Looking farther ahead, the major pattern change that starts to take
shape Wednesday will mature by the end of next week. Long range
ensemble guidance is an excellent agreement with this pattern
change, and has only grown stronger with forecast blocking over the
past few days. The anomalously strong and eastward extending East
Asian Jet is in the process of weakening, and this will allow for a
strong amplification of the Pacific wave train. This will force the
downstream pattern across North America to strongly amplify, with a
strengthening ridge along the west coast and a deep longwave trough
carving out over central and eastern North America. At the same
time, blocking over Greenland will strengthen.

The increasing high latitude blocking will project on an
increasingly strong negative AO (Arctic Oscillation), with the
Greenland Block forcing a negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation).
The western ridge/eastern trough and amplification farther west in
the Pacific will force an increasingly positive PNA (Pacific North
American) pattern.

The coupling of a negative NAO and positive PNA pattern will result
in an extended period of below normal temperatures and active winter
weather for the Great Lakes starting late next week, and lasting for
an extended period of time. The first few days of the pattern change
late next week will be routine cold, but after about December 10th
there are increasing signals in long range ensemble guidance that
several blasts of true arctic air may be in play for the Great Lakes
and Northeast. Obviously details are impossible to predict at this
time range, but the large scale pattern suggests the possibility of
numerous high impact lake effect snow events starting late next week
or next weekend, and continuing through the middle of December. Stay
tuned.
 

The upstream pattern is really one that should help downstream for UK coldies, the fact they mention an extended period of time is good. Of course energy being thrown east into the Atlantic will run towards the UK but it should be angled more favourably.

The displaced Azores high would be as a result of that upstream amplitude in the east USA with that troughing.
 

The update sounds very good however it mentions a Greenland block  we have seen hints of this mainly from the gfs  but if this is correct this should start to show its hand more frequently   Still very much up in the air 

[blizzard81]

I notice that members are avoiding any mention of the possibility of an easterly post day 10. I for one think that the chance of one has increased over the last 24 hours. The block to the east is growing and the displacement of the azores high will encourage lows to dive south east into western Europe and undercut the ever growing block to the north east. 

[nick sussex]

The updated NOAA monthly forecast has just been issued.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus07.html

If the UK can't get some snow and cold from what I've read then theres a curse!

It might be wintry in the east USA with energy firing east into the Atlantic but with a negative AO and the MJO on the move towards the west Pacific low track into the UK should be forced further south.

So to be frank it would be tragic beyond belief if coldies here don't get something to enjoy during December.

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

 

So to be frank it would be tragic beyond belief if coldies here don't get something to enjoy during December.

Tragic beyond belief is usual for UK coldies in winter..hope you're right nick..I want to see what you do when we reach white alert!