Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Geordiesnow said:

More trends towards a mild spell of weather, it would of been nice if such a large area of high pressure came after this northerly but mild air will topple in so potentially a boring period of weather coming up I'm afraid. 

Medium term shows the Atlantic waking up perhaps also.

It would be nice to hear the met office start talking about a milder trend as I've been worried about the early crop of December daffodils getting frostbite!

Seriously though, I'm no clearer about next week with the models all over the place right now.

[blizzard81]

22 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

The ecm had everyone, including me looking west. As a result I think we may be missing a trick here. Look east! The siberian high builds to a whopping 1055 and looks to be on an ideal tilt to advect cold westwards. I think this is  part of the reason why the Atlantic attack eventually leans towards a northwest to southeast track instead of it's usual southwest to northeast track. This is also caused by frigid air which has built over Scandi. Even the ecm ensemble mean at day 10 shows the siberian high at 1040mb. If this does lead to an easterly down the line, there will be no worries about lack of cold uppers heading our way

Ecm says keep looking east

[Methuselah]

In other words, the GFS18Z becomes our last-chance saloon! Again!

[karlos1983]

+240 is likely to be a stonker. Think of it as being married and You’re out with the lads and a pretty lady catches your eye, nice to look at but probably best just to move on, leave well alone and forget about it.

Edited November 30, 2017 by karlos1983

[Snipper]

Not sure if this is suppose to be the expert thread but not impressed by some who seem more like hysterical school girls (apologies to any school girls).

I for one want grown up analysis of what the models show. Not sad comments that we deserve this or that. 

[Timmytour]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

+240 is likely to be a stonker. Think of it as being married and Your out with the lads and a pretty lady catches your eye, nice to look at but probably best just to move on and forget about it.

Rather than go with it only too find there was a bit more to her than caught your eye, and i don't just mean the Adam's apple!

Turned out to be your uncle Bartlett in drag....

[northwestsnow]

Well i will always bow to nicks superior knowledge but i prefer the EC ..:)

[nick sussex]

Well after a tragic start , one which nearly ended up with my laptop meeting a grisly end the ECM performs a miracle of sorts!

The displaced Azores high and low heights over Europe saved my mood however once again we’re chasing rainbows and it’s hard to have faith in any outputs till there’s agreement in the early stages .

My mood is now in a holding pattern waiting for the next move from the outputs! 

[jvenge]

6 minutes ago, weirpig said:

True it is a brave man. But it's 120 chart from the 0z is different to the 12z. Conclusion ?  It's hasn't a scooby . Pretty much like the rest of us. Confused and disoriented 

Well. Im too tired to wait the control and EPS. Ill check the 0z tomorrow instead. Something tells me the 18z will be eagerly awaited here tonight.

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well i will always bow to nicks superior knowledge but i prefer the EC ..:)

So do I, who in the right mind wants this? GEFS ensemble, but op showing it too

[Geordiesnow]

8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It would be nice to hear the met office start talking about a milder trend as I've been worried about the early crop of December daffodils getting frostbite!

Seriously though, I'm no clearer about next week with the models all over the place right now.

Nothing really confusing about it that we we will be in for a mild spell. The question is will there be a northerly eventually but at least from tomorrow, it's going to slowly turn milder with perhaps the start of next week seeing widespread double figures of a South westerly flow picks up.

[karlos1983]

9 minutes ago, Snipper said:

Not sure if this is suppose to be the expert thread but not impressed by some who seem more like hysterical school girls (apologies to any school girls).

I for one want grown up analysis of what the models show. Not sad comments that we deserve this or that. 

Why do people post this, why do people post that. ?

could always use the ignore button ?

Edited November 30, 2017 by karlos1983

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, jvenge said:

Well. Im too tired to wait the control and EPS. Ill check the 0z tomorrow instead. Something tells me the 18z will be eagerly awaited here tonight.

 

In all seriousness for me it's still up in the air  as nick alluded to the shortwave and how it behaves dictates were the run goes     96 is were the models deviate  I expect it will be resolved by 12z Friday night   But your right ecm usually handles this situation better at this timeframe  we shall see 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Best thing to do is look for medium term changes and sudden flips. That's normally how we have ever ended up with a cold spell, January 2013 springs to mind. 

At the moment, anyone's guess could come off given the performance of the models at 120+ hours out! It's been as bad as I can remember, utterly shambolic! 

[Snipper]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Why do people post this, why do people post that. ?

Why not?  Might see the wood for the trees.

[Geordiesnow]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

So do I, who in the right mind wants this? GEFS ensemble, but op showing it too

Erm me... winter is not just about snowy weather, it's about stormy weather also. That chart is more interesting than that entire ECM run but sadly I think the GFS/GEFS is over deepening lows again.

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Geordiesnow said:

Nothing really confusing about it that we we will be in for a mild spell. The question is will there be a northerly eventually but at least from tomorrow, it's going to slowly turn milder with perhaps the start of next week seeing widespread double figures of a South westerly flow picks up.

A deluded part of me still thinks it will turn colder next week

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

In all seriousness for me it's still up in the air  as nick alluded to the shortwave and how it behaves dictates were the run goes     96 is were the models deviate  I expect it will be resolved by 12z Friday night   But your right ecm usually handles this situation better at this timeframe  we shall see 

Not sure the ecm has covered itself in glory recently. Not sure the stats agree, but it certainly doesn’t feel like it’s been performing to well recently. Neither have any in fairness. 

[blizzard81]

Ecm op would probably lead to a potent easterly. 

[Team Jo]

And if you’re posting a moan about the content of the thread or the models, you’re posting it in the wrong place.

I think  we had four episodes of the atmosphere turning sour in here last week because the models weren’t showing cold preferences run after run. And now we have falling snow as I type. Can’t recall this being a nailed on thing 7 days ago, next week probably won’t be any different.

Edited November 30, 2017 by Team Jo
Vital typo!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Just now, Geordiesnow said:

Erm me... winter is not just about snowy weather, it's about stormy weather also. That chart is more interesting than that entire ECM run but sadly I think the GFS/GEFS is over deepening lows again.

Was only 36 hours ago that the ECM magically blew a tiny shortwave up into a polar like hurricane just off new foundland though! 

All we need to do is keep an eye on the phasing of the lows and behaviour of the jet over the eastern seaboard these coming days. The slightest change as we have seen could decide whether we end up on the cold or warm side of the jet. 

[Geordiesnow]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

A deluded part of me still thinks it will turn colder next week

I hope so but there has been a shift no doubt that any return to colder weather will be longer than first expected. 

If we can't have the cold, lets have some deep lows coming into play like the GFS runs have shown.

[nick sussex]

15 minutes ago, Snipper said:

Not sure if this is suppose to be the expert thread but not impressed by some who seem more like hysterical school girls (apologies to any school girls).

I for one want grown up analysis of what the models show. Not sad comments that we deserve this or that. 

This thread is a mix of analysis and the occasional toys out of prams. We’re not the BBC giving a forecast . And the ups and downs and some of the melodrama and humour in here are part and parcel of the success of these forums .

Coldies in here are not your average members of the public , the majority are snow lovers who are passionate and so no I don’t want a dry humourless emotionless thread just discussing the track of a low.

Yes of course you want to see some analysis and there’s lots of that in here,  but at times it’s going to happen that we might lose it and and have the occasional moan.

Edited November 30, 2017 by nick sussex

[knocker]

According to this evening’s ecm by Monday midday the High cell to our west is coming under increasing pressure from the usual sources, the Canadian vortex lobe and the eastern seaboard and is being realigned, albeit the UK remains in the north westerly airstream,

By T120 This battle between the upstream forces and the high pressure results in very complex trough in mid Atlantic at the interface with various surface low pressure centers with the main two being phased together  west of Ireland and over Iceland whilst the high cell is still in situ adjacent to the UK

The complex low pressure to the NW does eventually get more organised (more or less) and by Thursday 00 is centred over Iceland with a strong WNW flow south of Greenland east pushing fronts south east across north west UK as the high pressure is eventually worn down.

From this point we see once again a resurgence of the Bermuda high pressure courtesy of the plunging cold trough in eastern N. America which results in a very strong thermal gradient across southern Greenland, a 170kt jet, and a very strong north westerly over the UK bringing rain and gales.

A good place to leave it.

A summation of the temp contour and anomaly and as I type I can hear the strains of, The Hills are Alive to the Sound of Music, emanating from the country park.

Edited November 30, 2017 by knocker

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Geordiesnow said:

I hope so but there has been a shift no doubt that any return to colder weather will be longer than first expected. 

If we can't have the cold, lets have some deep lows coming into play like the GFS runs have shown.

I still have delusions that the snowmagheddon Gfs 6z will verify.☺????