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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted (edited)

ECM is now offering a different evolution. Builds a ridge of us.

ECH1-120.GIF?30-0

 

Edited by SN0WM4N
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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted (edited)

My mood is about to hit the buffers , the ECM at T96 hours throwing another curveball into the mix. It will take a miracle to retrieve the situation now with a phasing from hell and a poor T120hrs chart.

You want the high over the UK flattened its of no use now , any ridge has to build from the nw over the low.

Edited by nick sussex
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Derecho Maestro

Derecho

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
Posted (edited)

ECM drops the idea of strong high pressure over Greenland at T120 :rofl:

Crazy output at the moment, the decline in blocking to our north in recent output has been very swift

image.thumb.png.d349db8c1ea6a53954779cf1881ab437.png

Maybe the ECM is off on one but what a change.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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N/A Apprentice

N/A

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Draig Goch said:

:cc_confused: Wow, where has this suddenly come from? Early days but GFS 12z shows some atrocious weather is possible next Friday, severe gales or even storm force wind gusts across parts of the north & west. One to keep an eye on. The outdoor Christmas trees certainly won't like that! 

image.png

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image.png

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Ooh that looks nasty, tbh I wondered if the jet stream was going to fire up again bringing the pre Christmas storms, but this is different as the winds are coming down from the north, blizzards perhaps? 

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Zakos Community Regular

Zakos

Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Wellingborough
Posted (edited)

ECM1-120.GIF?30-0gfs-0-120.png?12UW120-21.GIF?30-18

Miles apart at just 120- the output is a dogs dinner. Very uncertain as we head into next week.

My money is on a second cold shot, though it may be a long and drawn out process.

Interesting to see the met office mention battleground scenarios during december, this has been hinted at several times by the GFS...

ECH101-144.GIF?30-0gfsnh-12-144.png?12

At +144 the difference between the ECM and GFS is ridiculous, can't recall the last time i saw such a difference in the output.The models are clearly struggling with this setup.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Zakos
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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted
1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

My eyes are drawn to the north east probably nothing will come of it..

72128DC9-472B-48FD-BFC0-8C8EE22AA5CA.thumb.png.b47cc6807c0bc7336b7bfe29e5fde224.png

Bit Wedgy as BA eluded to perhaps ?

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted (edited)

Some bizzare evolutions being thrown up today.  

Ec-wants to take heights east now..

But tbf' with the dramatics in the atlantic/eastern seaboard/canada...

I think its got its head screwed on!

 

Edited by tight isobar
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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

Game over sadly , as soon as that shortwave energy phased to the nw  and amplifies at T96 hrs the effect is to bloat the high over the UK ahead of it.

We want that shortwave energy to the sw to remain flat.

So FI begins at T96 hrs ,  one output is going to look very silly tomorrow.

 

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snowice Seasoned

snowice

Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
Posted
2 minutes ago, Zakos said:

ECM1-120.GIF?30-0gfs-0-120.png?12UW120-21.GIF?30-18

Miles apart at just 120- the output is a dogs dinner. Very uncertain as we head into next week.

My money is on a second cold shot, though it may be a long and drawn out process.

Interesting to see the met office mention battleground scenarios during december, this has been hinted at several times by the GFS...

ECH101-144.GIF?30-0gfsnh-12-144.png?12

At +144 the difference is ridiculous, can't recall the last time i saw such a difference in the output.The models are clearly struggling with this setup.

 

 

 

 

 

It's like a bad bunch of grapes all 3 so different it's toss a coin time:closedeyes:

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Two words sum up the Ecm 12z to me, the first word is Pete and the second word is tong..so I'm binning this run because it's not showing what I want to see so it must therefore be wrong!!:help::D..More runs needed.

144_mslp500.png

168_mslp850uk.png

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ACCOUNT DELETED Enthusiast

ACCOUNT DELETED

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Dafydd Tomos said:

Ooh that looks nasty, tbh I wondered if the jet stream was going to fire up again bringing the pre Christmas storms, but this is different as the winds are coming down from the north, blizzards perhaps? 

No don't be silly mun :yahoo:just rain, rain and more rain! Scotland and Ireland could get sleet & snow though 

image.png

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted
1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

Bit of an early call Nick S? But what do I know.. :laugh:

1545DF5C-DA95-46AC-80BF-35A0E8AAE47F.thumb.png.917a8ba71a45fa7b34b0257fd51943d6.png

 

No the ECM is garbage, I don’t care what it shows past T168hrs. It’s also taken the PV further east because the troughing is given a tow by the upstream calamity .

Its now going to tease but I’m past caring ! 

 

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weirpig Maestro

weirpig

Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
Posted
1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Know which one I prefer! ecm obvious, could even be dry altogether on ECM

gfs-0-192.png?12ECM1-192.GIF?30-0

Got a feeling it will end up nothing like those two examples. Just call it a hunch 

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jvenge Seasoned

jvenge

Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
Posted
1 minute ago, Timmytour said:

We're going to end up getting a Bartlett for Christmas aren't we.....?

You don't like Uncle Bartlett? Sure, he drinks a lot and starts fights, but a decent guy.

Anyway. There is only one member of the GEFS showing anything like that. Can almost the ENTIRE GEFS be that wrong?

It is a brave man to bet against the ECM at t120 though.

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Geordiesnow Accomplished

Geordiesnow

Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
Posted

More trends towards a mild spell of weather, it would of been nice if such a large area of high pressure came after this northerly but mild air will topple in so potentially a boring period of weather coming up I'm afraid. 

Medium term shows the Atlantic waking up perhaps also.

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted (edited)

This is pretty painful model watching, can’t remember the last time we had this much disagreement. It’s driving me insane :fool:

i would advise extreme caution reading anything into this 216 chart.

AE46E334-F336-4C4B-8525-465921CDA8C6.thumb.png.32bdd2614de428689eea48829b509a3a.png

Edited by karlos1983
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weirpig Maestro

weirpig

Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
Posted
3 minutes ago, jvenge said:

You don't like Uncle Bartlett? Sure, he drinks a lot and starts fights, but a decent guy.

Anyway. There is only one member of the GEFS showing anything like that. Can almost the ENTIRE GEFS be that wrong?

It is a brave man to bet against the ECM at t120 though.

True it is a brave man. But it's 120 chart from the 0z is different to the 12z. Conclusion ?  It's hasn't a scooby . Pretty much like the rest of us. Confused and disoriented 

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