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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn


Paul
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Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

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Different orientation. The ridge is steadily pushing down south-east from Iceland - this will bring in a proper northerly

gfsnh-0-186.png?18

perhaps I should say - "should"!

Edited by Guest
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Don't give up coldies, this is a titanic battle!!:santa-emoji:

18_177_preciptype.png

18_177_ukthickness850.png

18_180_uk2mtmpmin.png

18_180_mslp850.png

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Really showing just how expanded the Hadley Cell has been/still is. Anyone ever get the feeling Ian Brown was a couple of years too early? :rofl:

Just kidding, but definitely a step towards the ECM tonight quite surprisingly given the US Forecasts distain for the extended output. Still all to play for but the trend definitely hasn't been our "friend" today. It's not even winter yet and I'm getting model fatigue. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmund's, Suffolk
  • Location: Bury St Edmund's, Suffolk

Trying to get cold into our country the past few years is hopeless. This weeks so called "cold snap"  was also woeful unless you live up a hill somewhere. I don't know why we bother watching this model output sometimes, gfs, ecm all look nailed on for cold, ensembles looked promising etc. And just like that we're practically back into mild mush.

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I still think this run will rescue it though.

Could do but it's way in FI so not even bothered what it shows after 144hr all rest on 96-120hr period for this mid week Northerly.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Whats frustrating is that by now its not even iberian height that is the issue..

As the point has been passed where' that would have been an' issue in around 7-days from now of modeling.

Its actualy the pacific ridge that could/should have been our freind...but is quickly turning foe!..

Its forcing is ramping the canadian sector, and forcing is spilling shortwaves at will.. and seriously damaging waa reaching..

So already lp/or/hp holders..@around iberia are nil-worthy..

Its just ridiculous luck for us...

All over.

But we still have small windows of opportunity!?!-'?

 

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Well we do finally have a northerly incoming at 210, but at this rate of knots it'll make it just before the 00z's start rolling out.

gfsnh-0-210.png?18  gfsnh-1-210.png?18

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
5 minutes ago, Bring Back1962-63 said:

Different orientation. The ridge is steadily pushing down south-east from Iceland - this will bring in a proper northerly

gfsnh-0-186.png?18

perhaps I should say - "should"!

Once again it's at day 8+ though, unfortunately the models seem to be overdoing the amplification outside of a reliable timeframe and then gradually watering things down as we get towards the time.

Frustrating as feels like we are missing a trick

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

Not bad now, but pushed further into FI, increasing uncertainty, shortwave few hours earlier, could be back edge snow (south)

gfs-1-216.png?18

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Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmund's, Suffolk
  • Location: Bury St Edmund's, Suffolk
Just now, Ice Day said:

Well we do finally have a northerly incoming at 210, but at this rate of knots it'll make it just before the 00z's start rolling out.

gfsnh-0-210.png?18  gfsnh-1-210.png?18

Might make it by march if we're lucky at this rate ?

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Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmund's, Suffolk
  • Location: Bury St Edmund's, Suffolk
8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Don't give up coldies, this is a titanic battle!!:santa-emoji:

18_177_preciptype.png

18_177_ukthickness850.png

18_180_uk2mtmpmin.png

18_180_mslp850.png

Cold always wins out in FI, but come +180 or so it's inevitable the mild will win. It's like a repeat record.

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
4 minutes ago, Bobby93 said:

Trying to get cold into our country the past few years is hopeless. This weeks so called "cold snap"  was also woeful unless you live up a hill somewhere. I don't know why we bother watching this model output sometimes, gfs, ecm all look nailed on for cold, ensembles looked promising etc. And just like that we're practically back into mild mush.

Nothing was nailed on in the reliable time frames.Maybe if people stopped looking at fl charts thinking they will verify then their wouldn’t be so disappointed if it fails to materialise.

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

Whats frustrating is that by now its not even iberian height that is the issue..

As the point has been passed where' that would have been an' issue in around 7-days from now of modeling.

Its actualy the pacific ridge that could/should have been our freind...but is quickly turning foe!..

Its forcing is ramping the canadian sector, and forcing is spilling shortwaves at will.. and seriously damaging waa reaching..

So already lp/or/hp holders..@around iberia are nil-worthy..

Its just ridiculous luck for us...

All over.

But we still have small windows of opportunity!?!-'?

 

I have found the Pacific ridge to be more of a burden than a benefit to the UK in Winter. As you say, it ramps up a segment of the pv to the north east US/Canada which in turn ramps up the Atlantic. We need the siberian high to come to the rescue but he has become a hermit these last few years for some reason. 

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent

Its set to turn much colder later next week models have just pushed back few days meto have been going for this now for awhile except more changes to come upgrades next few days .:cold: And are the ukmo seeing something we haven’t seen yet.??

B5515FD4-A487-4B15-876B-750E13E7F65F.png

Edited by abbie123
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Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmund's, Suffolk
  • Location: Bury St Edmund's, Suffolk
1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

Nothing was nailed on in the reliable time frames.Maybe if people stopped looking at fl charts thinking they will verify then their wouldn’t be so disappointed if it fails to materialise.

It's more the fact the ensembles etc continuously lead us up the garden path.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I have found the Pacific ridge to be more of a burden than a benefit to the UK in Winter. As you say, it ramps up a segment of the pv to the north east US/Canada which in turn ramps up the Atlantic. We need the siberian high to come to the rescue but he has become a hermit these last few years for some reason. 

Agree(in part).

Although 'again'..

A little more luck with microscale waving would allow ridging to align, and take the emphasis off holding heights-greenland-..

Then the pacific ridge with be a hand holder in meet/or aid in already in place heights @/around greenland/Alaska!..

However..

In a miniscule maritime island...

Thats gold at the end of the rainbow!!

.....

We keep going!!!?

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

so, the cold and possibly snowy weather gets pushed back again according to the latest jumble of data and algorithms.....and keeps on getting pushed back......but fear not, eventually it will verify, it will happen, in the first week of July 2018....yes, a stonking great cold northerly in the middle of what should be summer.....It's nailed on I tell ya! :crazy:

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
7 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Its set to turn much colder later next week models have just pushed back few days meto have been going for this now for awhile except more changes to come upgrades next few days .:cold: And are the ukmo seeing something we haven’t seen yet.??

B5515FD4-A487-4B15-876B-750E13E7F65F.png

It is not set to turn much colder on the ECM and unless there is an incredible turn around overnight in the models then the Ukmet forecast will change accordingly. 

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Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington

Well c’mon we are such a small island

wr need all 6 numbers for the jackpot

the tenner always verifies

Though the last few winters we didn’t even get three numbers

Edited by snowbob
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