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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I thînk the updated one is in ten minutes - that forecast must have been before the current eps. Be interesting to see if there is more doubt cast over the poss northerly. 

The current one says Northerly at the end of next week after mild start, doesn't express any doubt.

EDIT : Was updated at 9 though so whether they had time to digest the eps then do a broadcast?

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Location: Hertfordshire

Well that ecm op run was a stinker from as early as 120 onwards as the Atlantic low deepens and heads north, certainly was not expecting that and of course the following synoptics were impacted with zero ridging etc. Really hope and reasonably confident that the ECM is modelling this all wrong judging by the gfs and ukmo runs this afternoon. The pub run should give us a clue with tomorrows runs hopefully confirming one way or other.

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
1 hour ago, ArHu3 said:

 

KNMI_expertpluim_De_Bilt_Temperatuur_201711291200.png

After days of  this model output rollercoaster ride, that's what popped up on my mobile heart rate monitor! :80:

Edited by ajpoolshark
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, booferking said:

GFS coming up with a ECM special this run.:nonono:

Although I'm not sure its going to be an ECM special, I'm also far from certain its going to be a powerhouse Arctic outbreak special either unlike the last 2 pub runs.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
2 minutes ago, booferking said:

GFS coming up with a ECM special this run.:nonono:

Looks ok.

Better clearance' 

And at least higher heights are moving north...

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Hope im wrong but gfs18z early doors looks very ecmish blowing up the atlantic low!!!

Edited by swfc
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Posted
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
8 minutes ago, booferking said:

GFS coming up with a ECM special this run.:nonono:

 

5 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Looks ok.

Better clearance' 

And at least higher heights are moving north...

??  Any chance of a chart?!

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Although I'm not sure its going to be an ECM special, I'm also far from certain its going to be a powerhouse Arctic outbreak special either unlike the last 2 pub runs.

Looks a good match to me.

ECM1-168.gif

gfs-0-162.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The 18z is trying..very trying:santa-emoji:plenty of snow for scotland though:shok:

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
3 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman said:

 

??  Any chance of a chart?!

Yeah sure...

Short term pains for long term gains.

That being we have decipher'ed this scenario?!!..

An,icelandic route-advecting to mid greenland -mid term would at least dissenable a west based-  NAO Situ..

And perhaps ramp up waa, overiding the trough filtering east-usa..

And have some morph with west board ridge...

Something to look for...

For sure!!!

Screenshot_2017-11-29-22-11-56.png

Screenshot_2017-11-29-22-10-59.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Just now, Frosty. said:

The 18z is trying..very trying:santa-emoji:plenty of snow for scotland though:shok:

Definitely trying, yes, to move towards top model the ECM

gfs-0-168.png?18

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Posted
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in winter Warm Sunny Summer
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales

It's just hard to take any output seriously at the moment it's changing wildly each and every run and I think it's not getting energy exiting the us east coast right. It's only a small amount of energy that exits yet it pumps up the low in the mid Atlantic to something that looks wrong to me. Think I'll take a few days off model watching and return on the weekend when they should have a better handle on that low in the mid Atlantic.

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Posted
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)

All the time we have high pressure in the Greenland locale we are in the game although we do need those ruddy heights to drop over Europe / Iberia!

Edited by Kentish Snowman
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Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

So the gfs moves towards the ecm tonight. Why am I not surprised. The ecm is the top performing model in the verification stats. Looks like everything is delayed again. Thankfully it’s still autumn. Think if we see the same from tomorrow’s output we will see a change from the met Office. 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
7 minutes ago, booferking said:

Looks a good match to me.

ECM1-168.gif

gfs-0-162.png

I still think this run will rescue it though.

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