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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
16 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

Trying to forecast air patterns by a mean chart is frought wirh danger imo,  and even so it can't get t144 in order so no point in looking beyond 

That's what ensembles are for though, the t144 mean isn't great, anyway its not all doom and gloom as there is a weak -ve temperature anomaly right out to day 15 and the -ve height anomaly is centred over and stretches to the South of the UK  so intuitively there must be a fair sized cluster showing more amplified solution.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
25 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

big change on the ECM ensembles going by the 240 mean, looks more like cold zonality now rather than any great percentage showing a stonking Greeny block.

I posted what an ECM 240hr ensemble mean chart was showing for yesterday. Not a hint of a northerly from that chart.

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

The ecm had everyone, including me looking west. As a result I think we may be missing a trick here. Look east! The siberian high builds to a whopping 1055 and looks to be on an ideal tilt to advect cold westwards. I think this is  part of the reason why the Atlantic attack eventually leans towards a northwest to southeast track instead of it's usual southwest to northeast track. This is also caused by frigid air which has built over Scandi. Even the ecm ensemble mean at day 10 shows the siberian high at 1040mb. If this does lead to an easterly down the line, there will be no worries about lack of cold uppers heading our way :)

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

As with the Ecm 12z op, the ens mean struggles to push the cold air south but things could still improve..I'm not giving up on a second cold shot next week!:)

ECMAVGEU12_144_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_168_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_192_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_216_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_240_1.png

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
19 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

 I've decided to put this out from New Hampshire state forecast. I have to say this is one of the most in depth discussions I've  seen and I'd advise everyone to give it a good read as it impacts us in Europe.

Pattern shift emerging towards mid-December per ensemble guidance.
Interrogating, persistence of low pressure across the N Pacific as
the present phase 4 MJO transitions towards phase 5/6 yields an
increasing pump of warm-moist air across the NE Pacific into NW N
America. Subsequent ridging, Arctic air is dislodged and sheared
southward towards Central and E N America, hence -EPO/+PNA trends,
along with Pacific energy being cut-off over the SW CONUS from the
mid-latitude flow.

Meanwhile over the N Atlantic, a bit more complicated. Persistent
warm-moist pump towards the poles across the Davis Straight and
Greenland lends to blocking mechanisms that make E/SE Canada a
favorable region for storm development at times. However, the
associated polar low wobbles back N/W, retrograding as it reloads,
at which time additional Pacific energy through the mid-latitudes
becomes cut-off into the N Central Atlantic by upstream ridging,
gumming up the downstream zonal flow, hence a persistent -AO trend
and an inconsistent NAO trend.
 

US forecasters refer to the PV as the polar low, and that's supposed to go nw not be ejected east, you'll also note the persistent negative AO.

In terms of the warm moist air heading into the pole from the Davis strait, a southerly there means the block centred further to the ne.

The storm track suggests energy firing east out of se Canada but with a block in place that should be on a southerly track.

In terms of the upstream pattern this from New York state forecast:

A more significant shortwave is developing for Tuesday into
Wednesday as a shortwave moves onshore of the Pacific northwest
Saturday night into Sunday. This wave eventually amplifies into a
full latitude trough.

A full latitude trough in the US is one which digs right down towards the Gulf of Mexico, you wont have that if the pattern flattens out upstream.

 


 

So is this good news for the uk and should we bin the ecm for now nick?

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
55 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO at t168 still going for a north westerly

ukm2.2017120612_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.0033c62c010a716c6055880a611288dc.png

This looks like it might go down the GFS BOOM!! route of throwing an Atlantic trough into the Arctic blast!

So GFS + UKMO vs ECM at the moment.

My gut feeling is that the "northerly" will go east, though...

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

I posted what an ECM 240hr ensemble mean chart was showing for yesterday. Not a hint of a northerly from that chart.

Yes but the 144-192 charts clearly show it!!!!   -   This is the timeframe we are in now.

EDH1-144.GIF?12EDH1-168.GIF?12EDH1-192.GIF?12

 

Here are the current charts.

EDH1-144_jlr8.GIFEDH1-168_vin5.GIFEDH1-192_ecp9.GIF

 

And even with those very decent means from last week showing target date 28th, this still turned out to be a feeble Northerly so what will the bottom 3 target dates turn out like??

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
9 minutes ago, shaky said:

So is this good news for the uk and should we bin the ecm for now nick?

Yes I'd bin it for now because its far too progressive. And then it takes the PV and sticks it over Greenland.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
23 minutes ago, shaky said:

So is this good news for the uk and should we bin the ecm for now nick?

If you look at the plume for de Bilt, you can see the oper is the extreme warm outlier for day 10 and control and oper are not in sync since say 7, so indeed a pretty low chance of verifying 

 

 

 

Edit: what sorcery is that, the plume image changes right after posting  

KNMI_expertpluim_De_Bilt_Temperatuur_201711291200.png

Edited by ArHu3
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Yes I'd bin it for now because its far too progressive. And then it takes the PV and sticks it over Greenland.

 

I take it the state updates wont include the ECM eps yet? I was hoping they might or you might bin it on the back of your expertise in interpreting the effect of upstream teleconnections on UK weather.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
4 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

If you look at the plume for de Bilt, you can see the oper is the extreme warm outlier for day 10 and control and oper are not in sync since say 7, so indeed a pretty low chance of verifying 

 

eps_pluim_tt_06240.png

The op is the red line ........

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

The op is the red line ........

Something weird happened with that image, I edited my post with the correct plume 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
17 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I take it the state updates wont include the ECM eps yet? I was hoping they might or you might bin it on the back of your expertise in interpreting the effect of upstream teleconnections on UK weather.

Oh that's setting me up for a fall! :D

I'm just a humble model anorak! Anyway in terms of the ECM the eps aren't covered till much later, normally the state forecasts do a further update at around 8-9 pm eastern time.

The issue isn't really upto T144hrs that's where the ECM has trended towards the GFS/UKMO. Its after that where the issues arise, but a positive PNA normally has a dig of cold in the east with the PV pulled towards northern Canada. Without amplitude in the jet upstream you can't  get that dig of cold in the eastern USA.

The New Hampshire forecast suggests we're going to see the PV revolving around the trough engaging shortwave energy and spitting out some energy into the Atlantic but with blocking near Greenland.

The ECM wants to flatten things out and take the PV over Greenland which is very dubious.

All will be revealed in the morning , I'm not saying the GFS and UKMO have got the solution nailed down but the ECM looks very much like an outlier past day 7.

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
23 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes but the 144-192 charts clearly show it!!!!   -   This is the timeframe we are in now.

EDH1-144.GIF?12EDH1-168.GIF?12EDH1-192.GIF?12

 

Here are th

EDH1-144_jlr8.GIFEDH1-168_vin5.GIFEDH1-192_ecp9.GIF

 

You are showing the 12z mean, I was referring to the 0z ECM mean  which I posted :)

Edited by Weather-history
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Some seem to get confused via' difference/ops/means/ens.

Anyway for the here and now there is no 'clear' resolution between, many-if any output.

Also ramifications via- blocking and forcing maybe mis-interp...

But given consientcious its hardly suprising.

Its going around on a conoe with one paddle atm.

But surely its coming to a end point.

And things 'should' begin resolve very soon now... highlighted by the massive ups and downs of output dynamics...

The way is clearing...

And perhaps for cross agree-soon.

Edit:

One way or other.

 

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

You are showing the 12z mean, I was referring to the 0z ECM which I posted :)

Wires crossed then, I thought you were trying to say that you cant deduce anything from a mean as you said 'Ensemble' in your post, and although I tbf I was thinking you were correct wrt 240, I was pointing out that the Northerly was picked out beautifully in the mid range, which is the part important range currently being modeled wrt next weeks potential Northerly

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Posted
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset

Not been around on here since the summer and not even looked at the charts since august! 

However, it is pretty chilly at the moment which is why I thought I would have a look at the charts to see what is happening. Looks like we are in a chilly northerly at the moment but nothing unusual it seems. High then seems to be close by from the weekend onwards with milder weather in time for the new working week. Looks like GFS wants to try for another northerly of some sorts but long long way in FI. ECM showing much milder conditions next week with GEM on similar page. Ukmo showing benign yet boring and rather milder weather from the weekend also. 

At least for now, its a little more seasonal. Shame theres no major signs of anything apart from normal in the foreseeable. Please let me know if im wrong but thats what the models are showing this evening from a new pair of eyes perspective. Not had time to read through the last few pages, but clearly there has been some excitement given the amount of pages in less than 2 days. Clearly what perhaps was showing is no longer there or am I missing something?

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Whilst it looks very progressive, the 12z ec op isn't so far from the largest cluster at day 9/10 this morning on mean heights. I don't think it's right but I also don't think it should be so easily dismissed. The 12z spreads show clusters with a northerly but also a low height depression heading east off the ESB at day 10. still no resolution ! 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The anomalies this evening are not in agreement, particularly at the coal face, but I thought it worth a look to see if one can get some sort of handle where we going with all this.

Upstream we are not too bad with the Siberian vortex, Aleutian trough, with strong Alaskan ridge into the Arctic with strong positive anomalies over same into the east European ridge. And a vortex lobe N. Canada with a trough down the east side of N. America and also a conduit around Greenland  to another centre and trough Scandinavia.central Europe.

Thus we have the basis here for two energy flows. One around Greenland and another strong upper flow from the south east of the US courtesy of the highly amplified pattern. The former feeds the trough to the east of the UK but the complications arise with the latter because the configuration and intensity of the Atlantic ridge/Euro trough determines whether this flow is split  with the main arm running around the ridge across Greenland and diving NNW over the UK or a much flatter flow that is just west of north across the UK With a strong jet leaving the eastern seaboard it is this that appears, I say appears deliberately because it is just my take on it, that is causing the det runs some grief  This doesn’t offer any solutions but it will be interesting to see how it pans out. Only just seen NOAA but it appear to be moor in the EPS camp

Which ever way you hack this there doesn’t appear an obvious route to any serious cold unless perhaps the trough to the east adjusts west.

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.thumb.png.5b2480ce136fb689c498d91b05ab4a5b.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.thumb.png.c4f1e084d65a24e71a2ff374d045fd46.png610day_03.thumb.gif.f28db0e03c52a1409073aa917db1539b.gif

Not much point in getting too carried away in the ext period but worth noting the ridging and very strong positive anomalies across the pole, a pretty active Canadian vortex lobe and trough and the fact that we possibly heading towards zonality across the Atlantic.

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_61.thumb.png.9fda7ce24b9c5fd31a0aefef3e4b7714.png814day_03.thumb.gif.b5889b4046b8fc111012475c3a8a08ae.gif

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
7 minutes ago, knocker said:

The anomalies this evening are not in agreement, particularly at the coal face, but I thought it worth a look to see if one can get some sort of handle where we going with all this.

Upstream we are not too bad with the Siberian vortex, Aleutian trough, with strong Alaskan ridge into the Arctic with strong positive anomalies over same into the east European ridge. And a vortex lobe N. Canada with a trough down the east side of N. America and also a conduit around Greenland  to another centre and trough Scandinavia.central Europe.

Thus we have the basis here for two energy flows. One around Greenland and another strong upper flow from the south east of the US courtesy of the highly amplified pattern. The former feeds the trough to the east of the UK but the complications arise with the latter because the configuration and intensity of the Atlantic ridge/Euro trough determines whether this flow is split  with the main arm running around the ridge across Greenland and diving NNW over the UK or a much flatter flow that is just west of north across the UK With a strong jet leaving the eastern seaboard it is this that appears, I say appears deliberately because it is just my take on it, that is causing the det runs some grief  This doesn’t offer any solutions but it will be interesting to see how it pans out. Only just seen NOAA but it appear to be moor in the EPS camp

Which ever way you hack this there doesn’t appear an obvious route to any serious cold unless perhaps the trough to the east adjusts west.

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.thumb.png.5b2480ce136fb689c498d91b05ab4a5b.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.thumb.png.c4f1e084d65a24e71a2ff374d045fd46.png610day_03.thumb.gif.f28db0e03c52a1409073aa917db1539b.gif

Not much point in getting too carried away in the ext period but worth noting the ridging and very strong positive anomalies across the pole, a pretty active Canadian vortex lobe and trough and the fact that we possibly heading towards zonality across the Atlantic.

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_61.thumb.png.9fda7ce24b9c5fd31a0aefef3e4b7714.png814day_03.thumb.gif.b5889b4046b8fc111012475c3a8a08ae.gif

Again-all options on the table!

And troughing' both sides of the pond are of utmost!!!!

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Not sure why someone reported the Met Office video I posted, it was specifically a video about the weather models and the Met Office thinking but whatever, you do you.

Latest GFS snow depth for tomorrow. Scotland has been getting absolutely pelted with snow in this setup.

Snow depth.png

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent

So here we are  progressively colder later next week  North winds wintery showers looks like gfs is on the money with this one.

E3655EB5-4BD9-46F6-AC70-7AEE87133E3B.png

Edited by abbie123
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Posted
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)

Well models all over the place atm but just on previous experience feel that next week, after a slightly less cold weekend, the real cold air will stay East of the UK and will head into Germany Eastwards and move into Balkans and SE Europe.That seems to have been the pattern for last 3 years and not sure if it is to do with the continuos heights over Southern Europe playing their role . Just my personal feeling and really hope i am wrong.Also a little concerning that Eastern Seaboard may fire jet up although as per NS comments totally understand there is still a lot of uncertainty in this area.Think by Saturday we will be pretty sure what direction we will be going.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
1 minute ago, abbie123 said:

So here we are  progressively colder later next week northly winds wintery showers looks like gfs is on the money with this one.

E3655EB5-4BD9-46F6-AC70-7AEE87133E3B.png

Have to agree gfs been getting its house in-line much better than the other ops. .

'Overall'...

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
2 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

So here we are  progressively colder later next week northly winds wintery showers looks like gfs is on the money with this one.

E3655EB5-4BD9-46F6-AC70-7AEE87133E3B.png

I thînk the updated one is in ten minutes - that forecast must have been before the current eps. Be interesting to see if there is more doubt cast over the poss northerly. 

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