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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Before the ECM started tripping it had actually moved towards the UKMO and the GFS.

If the ECM had been on the money in recent days I would be throwing my toys out of the pram however it’s been poor with its modeling towards the ne USA.

Its of course disappointing that it’s still not on board but to put complete faith in its output given its recent form is like backing a steeplechaser after a couple of wins but has fallen and refused in its last two starts , tonight it looks like it’s also slipped and unseated it’s rider on the run in ! :cold-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Why? If EC is correct dont you think they will be re writing their update? Becasue their update will be massively wrong.

I didnt say EC was correct, did i?

if its any consolation, on the 17th november, the ECM day 10 chart (2 days ago)  showed this-

ECH1-240-1.thumb.gif.0ae3d54f2345debaaa26cd6dd27687d6.gif

that was massively wrong.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, bobbydog said:

if its any consolation, on the 17th november, the ECM day 10 chart (2 days ago)  showed this-

ECH1-240-1.thumb.gif.0ae3d54f2345debaaa26cd6dd27687d6.gif

that was massively wrong.

Fingers crossed Bobby :)

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

I think as nick has just said the change from the oz to the 12 on ecm is staggering tbh.this morning wasn't great but it did have good ridging later on be it with an immense low .how it goes from that in one run for me is at least sceptical. Imo looking at various other models and forecasts its wrong.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Unfortunately the GFS has been a distant third up to the 26th Dec for six days out. ECM does toy with the idea and UKMO may go down the GFS line at T168 but I can't see that chart. T144 is a bit far out and I wouldn't be surprised to see the GFS switch towards the ECM solution in the next few runs.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Just now, johnholmes said:

Grief, out come the thrown toys based on, yet again, one output. Why is this one so much more likely to be correct than the 00z output. Does this 12z compare with that from yesterday?

Certainly it doesn't compare with the latest MO update, nothing like..something's definitely not right.:santa-emoji:..time, as ever will tell.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

Grief, out come the thrown toys based on, yet again, one output. Why is this one so much more likely to be correct than the 00z output. Does this 12z compare with that from yesterday?

Well 12oz GFS does follow yesterdays 12oz fairly. Unfortunately people spend to much time looking into deep FI and get hung up about it. Since ECM tends to be more reliable I'll give it more creedance but wouldn't say anything is nailed down at all until we get closer in.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Cheer up coldies, next week is far from resolved yet..More runs needed i think!:santa-emoji::reindeer-emoji::D

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

I am currently compiling evidence from upstream that the ECM is wrong!

This will be passed to the prosecution to be heard by a jury drawn from irate nw members !

The charges against the ECM are as follows:

Emotional abuse of nw members.

Child cruelty , Little Jimmy  was promised sledging in the snow and has now been told instead he’s going to one of those naff fake Lapland parks.

A collapse in the share price of Ear Muffs and Scarves RUs.

Evidence to be heard a bit later after my operatives in the USA have compiled a full dossier of evidence .:cold-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
9 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Grief, out come the thrown toys based on, yet again, one output. Why is this one so much more likely to be correct than the 00z output. Does this 12z compare with that from yesterday?

indeed john... 

if by this time tomorrow, all models look like tonights ECM then there might be cause for concern. until then, i won't be and i'm sure the Met office won't change their forecast based on a single model run.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
7 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO at t168 still going for a north westerly

ukm2.2017120612_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.0033c62c010a716c6055880a611288dc.png

More a Northerly and much better than ECM for the same time-frame with lower heights to the South, better ridge and disrupting low rather than bowling ball low of ECM

ECM could be right but it doesn't have a great deal of support at the moment.

I think the mood swings in here are inevitable when we have such promising charts yet other runs have it all going TU.

But nothing is written yet and the Northerly plunge is actually still favourite IMO.

Also ECM has actually improved a little on previous runs for the shorter time-frames and has had no consistency through the mid term and FI.

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
44 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

The ECM would have to be monumentally wrong to give any chance of a Northerly next week, i have been model watching for over a decade and I can't hardly remember a time where a T+120 ECM chart has been that monumentally wrong. Remember, we are a small island, if the jet pushes everything 200 miles East, we miss out and the cold goes East.

Time will of course tell, but it's looking increasingly likely that our ship has sailed as the jet fires up due to the bitter cold sweeping into the US and Canada over the weekend.

There is a poster on here called That ECM I assume after that ECM that was never to be.... so yeah it can be wrong

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

big change on the ECM ensembles going by the 240 mean, looks more like cold zonality now rather than any great percentage showing a stonking Greeny block.

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Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.

Hopefully Man with Beard will post clusters later, but Id say the Operational has reasonable support from its members and control, which is positively toasty for a time when the GFS shows a northerly.

Looks quite changable after t240. Will leave it there and have a peak tomorrow.

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Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
21 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO at t168 still going for a north westerly

ukm2.2017120612_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.0033c62c010a716c6055880a611288dc.png

Great chart, you can see the effect the low pressure down the north sea is having on the flow, so whilst it's a northwesterly flow it's a good chart, with that cheeky shortwave about to move through southern areas, as that pushes through it will turn winds northerly/northeasterly bringing bitter air down with it. 

Ecm on it's own big time tonight 

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Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

big change on the ECM ensembles going by the 240 mean, looks more like cold zonality now rather than any great percentage showing a stonking Greeny block.

Trying to forecast air patterns by a mean chart is frought wirh danger imo,  and even so it can't get t144 in order so no point in looking beyond 

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

There's so much to iron out over these next few days, so I'm not worrying about this next potential cold spell unless it's still being modelled at less than 90 hours out! 

Put it this way, if the ECM can be so wrong like it was about the 2012 failed easterly which I saw unfold in real time, then surely it can be just as wrong about being too progressive with that shortwave and high.. 

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
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Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
4 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

There's so much to iron out over these next few days, so I'm not worrying about this next potential cold spell unless it's still being modelled at less than 90 hours out! 

Put it this way, if the ECM can be so wrong like is was about the 2012 failed easterly which I saw unfold in real time, then surely it can be just as wrong about being too progressive with that shortwave and high.. 

And all those 51 ensembles that said the Same!!

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