Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent

Same theme next week snow showers pushing south very cold too the pattern will change on run to run still going same direction cold and snow showers.

A86E7F57-B37F-4ACF-8308-8C12F168D63C.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, frosty ground said:

gfs-0-240.png?6

We get to day 10 and it looks like the pattern is about to repeat....

just thinking that- wonder if there still enough amplification in the Atlantic to prevent the euro high getting a foothold,

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
4 minutes ago, swfc said:

Gfs 6z gives up the fight at 200hrs be it fi

Massive swings which I can't remember seeing in 45 plus of model watching! !!

We get massive swings every gfs run in fl.What model are you watching if you can’t remember seeing such swings:gathering:

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

just thinking that- wonder if there still enough amplification in the Atlantic to prevent the euro high getting a foothold,

Hopefully with a favourable pattern over the US been touted I'd like to think the high would back nw.

Also the lower heights in eu not a bad thing.Fet the feeling the models are been too progressive around ne  America and southern Greenland.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

We get massive swings every gfs run in fl.What model are you watching if you can’t remember seeing such swings:gathering:

I was referring from start to finish on all output!!!!.Remember there hasnt always been the Internet to study and follow weather and forecasting! !! Just a thought:nonono:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

Charts like this are almost perverse. A tongue of warm air sat over the UK. Pretty much the only landmass at the same latitudes.

gfsnh-1-372.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Hi @SylvainTV

any chance of getting UKMO 168 on meteociel?

thanks

Steve

Hi Steve.

Probably not. We don't have access freely to the 168 data. UKMO data is already very sparse. But if i ever find it, it will get on the site right away. Moreover it is weird, the MetOffice site mentions only forecasts up to 144h here : https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/modelling-systems/unified-model/weather-forecasting

Sylvain

Edited by SylvainTV
  • Thanks 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
26 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

gfs-0-240.png?6

We get to day 10 and it looks like the pattern is about to repeat....

Just off to plug 'Day 10' into my Tardis...Back soon!:D

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
4 minutes ago, SylvainTV said:

Hi Steve.

Probably not. We don't have access freely to the 168 data. UKMO data is already very sparse. But if i ever find it, it will get on the site right away. Moreover it is weird, the MetOffice site mentions only forecasts up to 144h here : https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/modelling-systems/unified-model/weather-forecasting

Sylvain

In case you missed it, any chance of fixing ukmo in the Android app? Charts 0-120h are from October, only 144h is current

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GEFS should be updating soon...no shift to EC would be smashing ;)

Short ens is out now control and Op below the mean again mid next week good agreement until then

graphe_ens3_gfs0.thumb.gif.321a1cc8b94480ec774ee7e2de07cebc.gif

Edited by Summer Sun
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

Short ens is out now control and Op below the mean again mid next week good agreement until then

graphe_ens3_gfs0.thumb.gif.321a1cc8b94480ec774ee7e2de07cebc.gif

Nice bunch going colder there with the Op and the Control. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
5 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Nice bunch going colder there with the Op and the Control. 

Prefered the 18z TBH - really looked very promising, critical time still wrt enembles, the 6z GEFS graph will look worse than the 0z in mid range but probably a little better later on but that could be the mean just getting skewed by a big polar maritime cluster or a very small extremely frigid cluster.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Let's just have another look at this anomaly chart:

610day.03.gif

Don't think I've ever seen so much red in the northern latitudes! Crazy really. Hopefully the precursor to a really good winter - have to remember we are technically still in autumn at the moment, which is difficult given the output!

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
20 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Short ens is out now control and Op below the mean again mid next week good agreement until then

graphe_ens3_gfs0.thumb.gif.321a1cc8b94480ec774ee7e2de07cebc.gif

graphe3_1000_241_25___.gif

Two clusters therefore two options.... The mean in this regard is useless (Chart is for the NW England manchester area)

graphe3_1000_239_25___.gif

50/50 Big range in temps 

Edited by frosty ground
  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

75% chance of snow in London tomorrow :shok:

Beyond this lots of scatter for the 1st part of December but plenty of members supporting further cold

graphe_ens3_snv5.thumb.gif.0b7212902339ead43149f1e6316f6f45.gif

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
24 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Short ens is out now control and Op below the mean again mid next week good agreement until then

graphe_ens3_gfs0.thumb.gif.321a1cc8b94480ec774ee7e2de07cebc.gif

Op and control are outliers which suggests that the second northerly is unlikely.  Given the low ppn. signal perhaps a UK or Euro high is the more likely set-up?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
10 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

graphe3_1000_241_25___.gif

Two clusters therefore two options.... The mean in this regard is useless (Chart is for the NW England manchester area)

graphe3_1000_239_25___.gif

50/50 Big range in temps 

Thanks for pointing that out, FG; it explains why I seldom if ever pay any attention to ensemble means...in many cases, they simply don't mean anything. Pardon the pun!:D

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
3 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Op and control are outliers which suggests that the second northerly is unlikely.  Given the low ppn. signal perhaps a UK or Euro high is the more likely set-up?

Not sure its unlikely chris- infact i'd say its a toss of a coin.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
8 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Op and control are outliers which suggests that the second northerly is unlikely.  Given the low ppn. signal perhaps a UK or Euro high is the more likely set-up?

Id place it at 40-60  against a Northerly ( according to the ensebles)   support for the opp and control   but again until the midterm is sorted out  ( as you can see its  split into 2 clusters.) Then its difficult to see were we are going. 

Edited by weirpig
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: High Wycombe
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold.
  • Location: High Wycombe
5 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Op and control are outliers which suggests that the second northerly is unlikely.  Given the low ppn. signal perhaps a UK or Euro high is the more likely set-up?

Aren't PPN signals based off what patterns the models are generating?  Thus it would follow that the PPN signal follows the models, not the other way around.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...