Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

[Summer Sun]

ECM mean shows a steady rise from Saturday as less cold air arrives over the weekend with some parts of the UK back into double figures Sunday, Monday and possibly Tuesday away from Scotland and northern England

From Tuesday the mean then drops down a touch below zero again generally hovering around -2

Northern Scotland is similar whereby it turns less cold over the weekend by Wednesday the mean is heading down hovering around -4 from the 6th with a drop to -5 at the end

High pressure begins to build this weekend and it high see us through to the end of next week so any showers should be far less frequent

[karlos1983]

things look set to get interesting down the east coast tomorrow evening! Then some interest showing in the far SE later.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk 

Edited November 29, 2017 by karlos1983

[northwestsnow]

Non the wiser as expected..

Problem with EC is it blows up the low coming off the eastern seaboard at 144 and this throws energy pretty much exactly where we don't want it, scuppering the heights attempting to ridge into Greenland.

As steve said last night, this probably wont be resolved properly until maybe tomorrows runs..

while day 9 and 10 look wet not white, thats a pretty intense siberian high moving into the picture at day 10, that together with the greeny high will surely send the deep low to our west southwards/..probably all academic at this range as 144 isnt even sorted yet.

Edited November 29, 2017 by northwestsnow

[Methuselah]

Seconds out. Round 809,301! May the best man win.

[geordiekev]

7 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Seconds out. Round 809,301! May the best man win.

MAN, I always thought of the models as females, keep there cards close, they ARE a big deal, expect you to remember every minute detail that has gone before, as it does matter, and happy to make fools of you. BUT we love them all the same especially in the winter months to cuddle up to 

[chionomaniac]

Have you ever clicked between 2 frames of an op run and thought whoa I wasn't expecting that? Normally I am pretty confident that I can anticipate the next chart. Well today the ECM between T+168 and T+192 caught me out. Big time!

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Have you ever clicked between 2 frames of an op run and thought whoa I wasn't expecting that? Normally I am pretty confident that I can anticipate the next chart. Well today the ECM between T+168 and T+192 caught me out. Big time!

Yes the damage was done at 144 chino, too much energy spilling north out of the low coming out of the states( prevents the link to Greenland from mid Atlantic high)- think we might have to wait another day or so before energy distribution is nailed..

that said look at the NH profile at day 10- siberian high/greeny high- surely the jets gotta go south from thereon..

Edited November 29, 2017 by northwestsnow

[Iceaxecrampon]

00z

Decent Arctic flow up to the weekend then HP establishes to give a ppn free few days questioning the sanity of some on here.

Then.....!

Northern floodgates opening  - en route to snowmaggeddon?

A week off but all to watch for.

[blizzard81]

8 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Have you ever clicked between 2 frames of an op run and thought whoa I wasn't expecting that? Normally I am pretty confident that I can anticipate the next chart. Well today the ECM between T+168 and T+192 caught me out. Big time!

Yep, I commented earlier on that. For that reason alone, I can't see it verifying. Not to that extent anyway. 

[Weathizard]

The difference is already apparent between the GFS/ECM between day 4&5 with the ECM blowing up the low out of the ESB with the GFS making less of it, normally it's the other way around! 

[Gavin Hannah]

2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

The difference is already apparent between the GFS/ECM between day 4&5 with the ECM blowing up the low out of the ESB with the GFS making less of it, normally it's the other way around! 

 

The difference in pressure over Greenland is noticeable. 1045 on the GFS.

[frosty ground]

The Low sinking south east has a bit more about it on this run. Developed earlier.

Edited November 29, 2017 by frosty ground

[Summer Sun]

GEM shows it turning less cold over the weekend and into next week towards mid next week, colder air returns to all but the south-west

By Thursday & Friday, Sydney is basking in temps of 13c whilst the rest of us are around 1c to 5c

 

[radiohead]

06Z looking a bit less amplified than the 0Z at this point.

[Scandinavian High.]

Trend is still there..

[throwoff]

It's already reminding me of 2015 all this, the runs change markedly hour by hour, last year we had fairly consistent output that actually ended up being almost on the money, the only real cold spells turned up in FI and stayed there.

[Weathizard]

Doesn't look as good as the 0z but the GFS is still having none of the ECM route of sending a load of energy over the top. 

[frosty ground]

Very Kinky..... AKA lots of disturbances. 

[radiohead]

Disappointing to see the high moving further east this time. We get the cold air but this narrows the snow window.

 

 

[northwestsnow]

I'm happy with 6z- no move to EC, very cold uppers sweeping down from the north and hopefully a cold high to lock in snow cover for a few days thereafter...

[mountain shadow]

Energy around Southern Greenland causing  the problems as usual. 

Still none the wiser as to what we will get next week. 

[weirpig]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I'm happy with 6z- no move to EC, very cold uppers sweeping down from the north and hopefully a cold high to lock in snow cover for a few days thereafter...

Yes  different from the 0z  just another pattern but the same theme.   Snow will and could pop up anywhere. But as you say nothing like the ECM     all in all decent 6z  

[Seasonality]

Quibble ye not over the 06z output. Still very cold air over the UK to end next week.

 

[swfc]

Gfs 6z gives up the fight at 200hrs be it fi

Massive swings which I can't remember seeing in 45 plus of model watching! !!

[Gavin Hannah]

7 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Quibble ye not over the 06z output. Still very cold air over the UK to end next week.

 

Snow may be limited away from the north and high ground. But cold air is key to keeping the snow in place where it has fallen for the periods when milder air does make a return.