Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

[blizzard81]

This is a nirvana run for the UK. I'm already looking west towards the low coming out of Newfoundland and thinking of it's track across the Atlantic  Southerly track Essex Snowman lol

 

Edited November 28, 2017 by blizzard81

[khodds]

6 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

If the ECM shows anything like this tomorrow morning this place is going to go into meltdown. 

Back to reality for a second - The chance of anything close to tonights 18z coming off is extremely low, and would quite easily beat December 2010 in terms of cold and snow depth. Quite incredible, really. 

The 18z has definitely been on the tequila this evening.

Did 2010 models produce anything like what we are seeing now though? I can’t remember if they did. I know tonight’s runs are unlikely to happen but just out of curiosity? 

Plus.. we know that these lows if they ever verify have a nasty tendency of correcting south, therefore France gets the action! 

Edited November 28, 2017 by khodds

[northwestsnow]

Back in the game 

Exceptionally snowy 18z..the tweets earlier hinted at this..

Momentum shifting to cold tonight?

[John Cox]

These charts would surpass Dec 2010.

[snowbob]

Holy sydney

18z please just this once

[snowice]

2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Steve, get your phone on charge man....

At 210, the whole country is under -8 or -10 850's.  This is better than Sunday's run...incredible

Yes and Sundays run was gone Monday morning ,great eye candy but we all have been here before ,but you can't help yourself can you 

[nick sussex]

If you factor in GFS bias I doubt the low would deepen that rapidly .

This means it’s track won’t pull ne as much. It’s quite rare to see this type of set up.

Just a word of caution re track, at this range it’s very difficult to pin down so favoured areas are likely to chop and change between runs.

 

[Portland Paul]

7 minutes ago, MKN said:

Itl never happen. At +192 ish it has around 1% chance at best.

It did on 8th December 1990, that was quite a blizzard! This evolution has shown some consistency in recent runs, and this latest run is extra special! At +168 can be remarkably accurate followed by the usual downgrades, followed by upgrading nearer the event.. Definitely one to keep an eye on.. 

[Ice Day]

Still going strong at 234....

  

If this comes off (very low chance obviously) it would be chaos....brilliant.  Below is the approximation of the snow depth we should expect!

[Midlands Ice Age]

1 minute ago, khodds said:

Did 2010 models produce anything like what we are seeing now though? I can’t reme if they did. I know tonight’s runs are unlikely to happen but just out of curiosity? 

Looks very like 1947..I am sorry to say.... (not)

[John Cox]

When things don't work out as per GFS 18 i refer to this site.

http://www.webbkameror.se/webbkameror/overtornea/overtornea_centrum.php

It keeps me sane

[khodds]

1 minute ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Looks very like 1947..I am sorry to say.... (not)

Don’t be sorry! It’s such a shame that it’s FI.. 

edit.. just re read your post 

Edited November 28, 2017 by khodds

[radiohead]

This is with inland wind gusts around 100 km/h.

[Met4Cast]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

If you factor in GFS bias I doubt the low would deepen that rapidly .

This means it’s track won’t pull ne as much. It’s quite rare to see this type of set up.

Just a word of caution re track, at this range it’s very difficult to pin down so favoured areas are likely to chop and change between runs.

 

Blimey Nick, that almost sounds like a ramp.

[summer blizzard]

The most important thing at the day 9 chart is actually what happens in the western half. The high has cut-off over Greenland and is forcing the jet under it.. the AO will fall through the floor..

[Captain Shortwave]

All fun and games but the gfs dumps 10-20cm of snow across the Midlands with closer to a foot across the welsh mountains from that low.

All i can say is GFS go home... you are drunk

Good trends today, at least to rebuild the Atlantic ridge in week 2. There is still major uncertainty regarding those areas of low pressure in the Atlantic, hopefully we are honing in on the correct track of those lows and won't see any more major swings.

In the nearer time frames, I hope some see some snow over the coming few days.

Edited November 28, 2017 by Captain Shortwave

[weirpig]

Dear me blizzards on this run. Hurricane at 312  and a forecast for locusts the middle of the month. Something for everyone me thinks  

[markw2680]

3 minutes ago, radiohead said:

This is with inland wind gusts around 100 km/h.

Can you imagine if it came off anything like what it shows, one word that comes to mind... blocked lol

[V for Very Cold]

Ok ... who’s used up all their likes ?? And who’s secretly worried about the next run? Lol

[snowbob]

The only thing the 18 z didn't show were the white walkers in the North Sea

what a great run

winters coming and we don't want john snow meddling with the 0z

 

Edited November 28, 2017 by snowbob

[Tracy Flick]

The JMA and the EC are both brief northerlies in week 2 before everything washes eastwards.  I fear the GFS will be very different tomorrow unfortunately.

[ribster]

GFS keeps pointing to 6th Dec, then drops it, then comes back to it, edging sliwly closer...

[radiohead]

Almost enough to keep everyone happy!

[Daniel*]

24 minutes ago, MKN said:

Itl never happen. At +192 ish it has around 1% chance at best.

To be fair that’s a tad unfair there has been some consistency around that timeframe with a low engaging in preexisting cold air I find it entirely plausible, to see one widespread snow event we shall see as ever. 

Edited November 28, 2017 by Daniel*

[Met4Cast]

1 minute ago, Ryerson said:

The JMA and the EC are both brief northerlies in week 2 before everything washes eastwards.  I fear the GFS will be very different tomorrow unfortunately.

ECM seems out of kilter with the shortwaves in the Atlantic, GFS and UKMO largely in agreement with their placement which is why they both go on to produce good blocking (or at least the UKMO would if we could see it further out)

I think we'll see the ECM backtrack tomorrow towards the GFS, though certainly unlikely to see another extreme run like the 18z, the only way from that is downgrade.