Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

[Derecho]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

EC is a massive improvement on the 00z at 144, just my opinion of course ..:)

Even better then the 12z GFS 

[Day 10]

And at 144:

[northwestsnow]

Just now, shaky said:

Maybe not!!the ecm looks an absolute beauty at 144 hours!!what a difference 12 hours makes!!this morning was depression.mode in this forum and now we ecstatic!!and we got snow chances this week aswell!!

Its looking primed at 144 shakster !!!! But i refuse to wheel out the after this mornings meltdown..

[tight isobar]

Yes its getting there...

Finds a clean way out...

And starts heights searching north/north west...?

[snowice]

Red back to Amber so Nick

[Duane S.]

Chalk and cheese ECM compared to the earlier run. Very nice 12z indeed so far

Edited November 28, 2017 by s4lancia

[Jonan92]

 

Looking good so far, let's see hwo far up it goes

 

GFS

Edited November 28, 2017 by Jonan92

[karlos1983]

Just look at the NH profile, unbelievable Jeff!!

something has to give at mid latitude and somewhere is going to get cold whipped!

lets hope it’s us!!!!

 

[Frosty.]

I think this run is going to get very cold!

[northwestsnow]

Its hard to see the UK avoiding a cold northerly at 168- but i'm just happy we have moved away from the 00Z runs-well in the case of EC anyway.

[Mucka]

Remember ECM is the only model to blow up an Atlantic low 144+ so maybe we should take with a pinch of salt unless it becomes a "thing"

The important part for cold lovers has ticked the necessary boxes earlier in the run.

Maybe if all the models come on board tomorrow morning for Northerly setting up/in by 144/168 we will be finally in the clear.

GEM doesn't quite get there but much improved from recent runs.

Edited November 28, 2017 by Mucka

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

Remember ECM is the only model to blow up an Atlantic low 144+ so maybe we should take with a pinch of salt unless it becomes a "thing"

The important part for cold lovers has ticked the necessary boxes earlier in the run.

Maybe if all the models come on board tomorrow morning for Northerly setting up/in by 144/168 we will be finally in the clear.

Noooooooo - i wont be happy until we have agreement at 96- but again, im happy we have avoided a repeat of the 0z run, for now....

[Man With Beard]

Scotland already back into the cold by T168

Total turn around from this morning

And everyone goes cold by Wednesday

Edited November 28, 2017 by Man With Beard

[phil nw.]

Re-assuring to see all 3 with the same idea by T144hrs with the re-amplifying nw towards Greenland/Newfoundland with those lows heading underneath.

Day 6 but If we get to here then we are well on the way to the cold up north being released.

[snowbob]

3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I think this run is going to get very cold!

I did mention the flip flop

no science to back it up just experience

i just had a feeling that ukmo was ahead of the other two

[ArHu3]

3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Remember ECM is the only model to blow up an Atlantic low 144+ 

Isn't that one of ecm's strengths, that it forecasts these storms correctly before all othe mmodels? 

[knocker]

The ecm also has trough in this position at that time which could, over a few hours, give a fair wack of snow although it may well be a bit knife edgy.

[karlos1983]

Mods can we up the like limit? I’m struggling here juggling likes, I like everything! 

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Here she comes ECM and GFS on the same page love it 

[nick sussex]

Quite amazing turn of events today .

For this reason I think we need tomorrow mornings outputs to solidify that the spoiler shortwave has finally been exorcised !

There are some differences , the GFS has the better chance of a snow event as it had a shortwave running east but that does come with higher risks and then it edges towards a west based neg NAO.

The ECM fails to build on its early better trend but at this point there are bound to be more changes .

The main thing is we don’t have the shortwave spoiler , because that’s crucial in having any chance of developing some interest .

 

 

[Jonan92]

Those atlantic lows always find a way to avoid a clean heights rise

[karlos1983]

Just now, nick sussex said:

Quite amazing turn of events today .

For this reason I think we need tomorrow mornings outputs to solidify that the spoiler shortwave has finally been exorcised !

There are some differences , the GFS has the better chance of a snow event as it had a shortwave running east but that does come with higher risks and then it edges towards a west based neg NAO.

The ECM fails to build on its early better trend but at this point there are bound to be more changes .

The main thing is we don’t have the shortwave spoiler , because that’s crucial in having any chance of developing some interest .

 

 

Karlos likes this 

[tight isobar]

Very attractive north-hem profile.

And the cold spilling back in.

A few dramas eastern seaboard 'perhaps'...???/eastern canada..

 

Edited November 28, 2017 by tight isobar

[Mucka]

6 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Isn't that one of ecm's strengths, that it forecasts these storms correctly before all othe mmodels? 

I think GFS tends to blow up Atlantic lows more in the main but this situation is different. That deep low is wholly reliant on the Atlantic shortwaves phasing and then the low not disrupting SE against the block and instead forcing energyf NW.

No output can be discounted but in that regard I would say the post 144 ECM charts are among the least likely to verify. More likely we don't get that sort of phasing and any low pressure disrupts under the block unless more runs go with it and other models come on board tomorrow.

Edited November 28, 2017 by Mucka

[radiohead]

Hmmm

Certainly an improvement earlier on with this run but I'll take the GFS over this.