Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

[nick sussex]

12 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

After this arvo's outputs, the biggest problem will be to keep sane for long enough to see if they verify!

What do you mean sane I thought we’d all passed the point of no return ! 

Spending hours observing model outputs  and obsessing over the direction of a shortwave could be seen by others as a bit strange !

My friends who know all about my obsession call us the snow people! But I don’t care, I find people strange if they don’t like snow ! 

I cant get my head around that, who couldn’t love snow . I’m just as excited now to see snow falling as I was when I was a kid.

Anyway in a desperate attempt to move back on topic, the minutes seem to be taking ages to count down to the ECM run! 

 

Edited November 28, 2017 by nick sussex

[feb1991blizzard]

I said we needed a good GEFS suite and we have a lot more runs between -5c and -10c now, in fact more than half do.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=247.52999877929687&y=24.649999618530273

[karlos1983]

9 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

What do you mean sane I thought we’d all passed the point of no return ! 

Spending hours observing model outputs  and obsessing over the direction of a shortwave could be seen by others as a bit strange !

My friends who know all about my obsession call us the snow people! But I don’t care, I find people strange if they don’t like snow ! 

I cant get my head around that, who couldn’t love snow . I’m just as excited now to see snow falling as I was when I was a kid.

Anyway in a desperate attempt to move back on topic, the minutes seem to be taking ages to count down to the ECM run! 

 

Nick, I’m sure everyone shares this view, you sir are a legend. I couldn’t agree more with that.

Edited November 28, 2017 by karlos1983

[Summer Sun]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I said we needed a good GEFS suite and we have a lot more runs between -5c and -10c now, in fact more than half do.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=247.52999877929687&y=24.649999618530273

Where is that ens for?

Here is the London ens

Pretty much below average right through to around Dec 12th bar this weekend then a rise towards mid-December as hinted at by the Met

[northwestsnow]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I said we needed a good GEFS suite and we have a lot more runs between -5c and -10c now, in fact more than half do.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=247.52999877929687&y=24.649999618530273

Excellent ens set Feb- milder runs doing a vanishing act!!

wrt UKMO 144- yes its better upstream than GFS- but downstream, it isn't...

[Singularity]

Only for entertainment's sake, but it just hit me (as earlier I was too busy looking on our side of the hemisphere) how crazily strong that ridge over Alaska is at the end of the GFS 12z. Right at the upper reaches of the height scale!

The high-stakes game is back on the menu for mid-late next week. Such a fine line between stupendously snowy and seriously sodden.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Where is that ens for?

Here is the London ens

Pretty much below average right through to around Dec 12th bar this weekend then a rise towards mid-December as hinted at by the Met

Forest of Bowland, Just N of Burnley.

[Frosty.]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Excellent ens set Feb- milder runs doing a vanishing act!!

wrt UKMO 144- yes its better upstream than GFS- but downstream, it isn't...

I'm so happy, those dismal 00z runs are a distant bad memory..fingers crossed for another BIG Ecm  run...sofas at the ready!☺???

[tight isobar]

2 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Only for entertainment's sake, but it just hit me (as earlier I was too busy looking on our side of the hemisphere) how crazily strong that ridge over Alaska is at the end of the GFS 12z. Right at the upper reaches of the height scale!

The high-stakes game is back on the menu for mid-late next week. Such a fine line between stupendously snowy and seriously sodden.

Yes that ridge is stricking....

[ScottishSnowStorm]

GEFS ens slowly going in the right direction here in the scottish central belt 

[Interitus]

9 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Only for entertainment's sake, but it just hit me (as earlier I was too busy looking on our side of the hemisphere) how crazily strong that ridge over Alaska is at the end of the GFS 12z. Right at the upper reaches of the height scale!

The high-stakes game is back on the menu for mid-late next week. Such a fine line between stupendously snowy and seriously sodden.

Highly likely that the Alaskan ridge is a manifestation of the stratospheric anticyclone i.e downwelling.

[Mark wheeler]

9 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I'm so happy, those dismal 00z runs are a distant bad memory..fingers crossed for another BIG Ecm  run...sofas at the ready!☺???

Yes frosty I’m getting ready for the ECM to come out , can’t wait.. . Another day and it seems the 12zs are trumping 00 outputs something that  people have mentioned before and something I have noticed happening , all probably just in the mind . 

[Singularity]

2 minutes ago, Interitus said:

Highly likely that the Alaskan ridge is a manifestation of the stratospheric anticyclone i.e downwelling.

Good spot - for whatever reason that anticyclone in the stratosphere does not behave so nicely on this run, travelling further away from the N. Pole which is not what we want to see when the vortex is being displaced. Unless, that is, some wave 2 action can kick in, but signs of that remain intermittent at this time and I've yet to see anything of sufficient strength to put that route in the table.

With all the blocking going on near and across Greenland, though, I'm not inclined to rule out something better manifesting.

ECM 12z...  will it be outlandish again I wonder? 

[booferking]

Separation in lows look much better??

[Captain Shortwave]

I may end up very wrong here but at this point a repeat of the previous run is unlikely as by Sunday morning we have an open trough upstream with low pressure moving north east, in fact it has that low closed off the most out of the lot on the 12z suite.

Compared to yesterday

And the others today

   

Edited November 28, 2017 by Captain Shortwave

[Mucka]

120 probably the best of the output so far this evening. Could still do with sharper trough and pattern further West but upstream should be fine with any lows forced to undercut,

Edit As bonus entertainment GEM trickling out - looks much better than previous run out to 120

Edited November 28, 2017 by Mucka

[tight isobar]

3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

120 probably the best of the output so far this evening. Could still do with sharper trough and pattern further West but upstream should be fine with any lows forced to undercut,

Only issue is those waves' are pinching on the ridge....

And as its the ecm(amplification-specialist)..

It needs note!

Edited November 28, 2017 by tight isobar

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

120 probably the best of the output so far this evening. Could still do with sharper trough and pattern further West but upstream should be fine with any lows forced to undercut,

TBH mucka i thought exactly the same, just dont want to the mid Atlantic high getting detached- that would be a disaster, hopefully wont happen..:)

[shaky]

Now watch for a shortwave to spoil it all around the iceland and greenland border lol!!and it will come out of nowhere aswell u watch lol!!

[Day 10]

The 3 together for people to see and compare:

[Mucka]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

TBH mucka i thought exactly the same, just dont want to the mid Atlantic high getting detached- that would be a disaster, hopefully wont happen..:)

Yeah need to avoid the shortwaves phasing and blowing up - it is basically a race to drop the trough South before the shortwaves can misbehave.

144 ECM the only model to phase them properly and blow up an Atlantic low but the trough is already digging South so shouldn't stop the Northerly.

Edited November 28, 2017 by Mucka

[Jonan92]

 

Looking much cleaner than GFS, I like it

[Captain Shortwave]

Decent ECM, to be honest that is enough

Shallow trough close to Iceland, that is the feature which will develop the Scnadi trough and should give us a northerly in week 2, the ridge is perfcetly primed to push north/north west.

[northwestsnow]

EC is a massive improvement on the 00z at 144, just my opinion of course ..:)

[shaky]

Maybe not!!the ecm looks an absolute beauty at 144 hours!!what a difference 12 hours makes!!this morning was depression.mode in this forum and now we ecstatic!!and we got snow chances this week aswell!!