Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

[Frosty.]

2 hours ago, Frosty. said:

I'm still backing a change back to colder weather from the nw / n following a slightly milder weekend and early next week.

The power of positive thinking..Gfs  12z says YES☺????

Edited November 28, 2017 by Frosty.

[Mucka]

UKMO is better upstream than GFS at 144 and GFS turns out to be colder run than even the 06z.

The shortwaves will only be an issue if they beat the Scandi trough digging SE to the punch.

If in future runs we see the pattern backed a little West or heights lower more quickly through Scandi from T96 to 144 then the energy will not get over the top of the block and force the high East because the ridge will get far enough North while the shortwaves will be forced to undercut and disrupt.

Look for the behaviour of the trough and ridge in the earlier time-frames rather than the shortwaves in the later I say.

Edited November 28, 2017 by Mucka

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Oh my GFS you naughty thing you 

A lot of scenes similar to this one of me in 2010 if that came off. 

A true 11 year old coldie, seconds out of his bed!! 

[knocker]

What a nasty little shortwave from the southern trough in the split flow attack.

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

The output is and has been all over the place but one consistent message has been blocking predominantly to our NW. They just want to put a block of some description in that area. Gfs is just stunning and a channel low with cold air under cutting, well it doesn't get better.

It wouldn’t be the same without me moaning about something ! 

The block needs to be further east, but given the morning horror show it’s a step in the right direction.

[Mucka]

GEM 12z appears to have frozen, maybe an omen?

(Think you meant West Nick?)

Edited November 28, 2017 by Mucka

[Cheshire Freeze]

Well FI turns into a flooding horror show with low after low dumbelling around

Prefer the 6z FI thanks!

Although an interesting little 2013 feature pops up towards the end (look towards S Greenland)

Edited November 28, 2017 by CreweCold

[tight isobar]

Western seaboard ridge eye-watering...

And would send the vortex into a migration of pure great-ness 

 

[coldwinter]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

GEM 12z appears to have frozen, maybe an omen?

(Think you meant West Nick?)

Further east in FI I think he means

[John Cox]

Ok, all this chopping and changing in the charts (compare 0600 to 1200) is that there is no resolution beyond 5th December. Look at the 0600 ensembles.

So lets have some fun each 6 hours .... this morning .. Winter is over. This afternoon.. wayhay, lots of snow to come. Tonight the soap opera continues, but it iseven better here than the Soaps. There are no spoilers that can be read up on. Oh, the excitement  

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

GEM 12z appears to have frozen, maybe an omen?

(Think you meant West Nick?)

I'll send for batman, holy ice cubes the 12z runs are looking much better!

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

Just wondering whether if the 12z GFS run comes to pass for next week and we get that unstable Northerly we could be in for a similar scenario to the January 2004 thundersnow event that hit much of the Eastern side of the UK?

Link to the forecast below....

https://youtu.be/GdkxbVI-LKo

It would be nice to get the ECM on board this evening as well though before we get our hopes up too much!   

[karlos1983]

5 minutes ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:

A lot of scenes similar to this one of me in 2010 if that came off. 

A true 11 year old coldie, seconds out of his bed!! 

Good lad!

[nick sussex]

6 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GEM 12z appears to have frozen, maybe an omen?

(Think you meant West Nick?)

Which one are you talking about? I was talking about the Greenland high further east  because the attack point is taken further east after the initial shortwave .

If you’re talking about the high near the UK before the fun and games start then yes that one further west.

Edited November 28, 2017 by nick sussex

[phil nw.]

After the confusion caused by the split jet coming off NA over the last 24hrs we seem to be back on track wrt a reload northerly. Both UKMO and GFS are heading for further Atlantic/Greenland heights in week 2 which have been in the ens. for a few days now so we are again looking to a generally cold outlook as we go into December after a brief less cold interlude from the week end.

How Wintry week 2 will be for the UK is yet to be determined but looking at all the recent ens/means it does look like a reloading pattern with the 3 ridges continuing to repeat in the areas around Alaska/Greenland and C.Russia all heading towards the pole creating a significant -AO pattern.

A look at the GFS T144hrs 850's and ht.anomalies shows how the Arctic air is forced well south into mid-latitudes. .

At day 6 both runs are setting up for further Greenland ridging,it looks like only a matter of a short time before that cold comes south.

Edited November 28, 2017 by phil nw.

[nick sussex]

NOAA have just called the ECM 00hrs run outlandish ! They have serious doubts over this mornings op run which is good news because it was dreadful from a cold perspective!

[knocker]

I know this all academic at this range but the shortwave emitted by the southern trough over on the eastern seaboard which tracks NE through the ridge and phases with the trough to the north and facilitates the cold air in pushing south over the UK ultimately is not good for those of a cold persuasion. Simply because it isolates the high cell west of Greenland and opens up a direct  channel east for the energy and troughs to travel. Next week is a long, long, way from being nailed down.

Edited November 28, 2017 by knocker

[Mucka]

12 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Which one are you talking about? I was talking about the Greenland high further east  because the attack point is taken further east after the initial shortwave .

If you’re talking about the high near the UK before the fun and games start then yes that one further west.

Yes I thought you meant the initial ridge/high with GH being FI and just mistyped because it is something I do on occasion. Sorry to project my afflictions upon you.

 

Edited November 28, 2017 by Mucka

[Frosty.]

All looking much more wintry on 12z runs so far, hopefully the Ecm 12z will join the party or i fear for nick sussex's laptop!...most of us want the white alert, hoping we get there next week!

Edited November 28, 2017 by Frosty.

[Dean E]

Good 12z GFS coming through again, well better than yesterdays runs. Very tricky way for cold to reestablish, but whatever the outcome there is amazingly still no sign of the Atlantic roaring through. Something thats been in evidence all of this autumn imo.

 

At +156hr that potenital storm in the NE Pacific near Alaska needs watching. From previous experience, this can really mess with the overall pattern across the US and eventually into the Atlantic. Something that GFS maybe starting to hint at.

Again, Sunday onwards still a bit in the dark I believe. 

 

[warrenb]

I reckon, the GEM is so outrageous they have decided not to release as to keep panic within the general population to a minimum.

[Methuselah]

After this arvo's outputs, the biggest problem will be to keep sane for long enough to see if they verify!

[Summer Sun]

GEM late for an unknown reason no estimate for when it will update

[I remember Atlantic 252]

50 minutes ago, radiohead said:

Brrr that's cold!

Too good, as huge bet it won't happen, that chart screams Stafford snow

Edited November 28, 2017 by I remember Atlantic 252

[Day 10]

As long as the ECM produces a Northerly like this then we'll all be happy! (well most of us)

Just a tad chilly!