Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

I'd suggest you're in the wrong hobby if you're spending more time pointing out people's grammatical errors rather than providing any meaningful analysis of the NWP.

I think his point was it's not dire run. Unless of course your looking for sustained mild

[swfc]

Pretty amazed by a lot of comments and wrist slashing on charts ten days away ete.the general trend is still there with the waxing and waining of shortwaves ete.cold week coming up with a probable push north with heights next week.im sure there will be more ups and downs but the current nhp and synoptics are pretty good imo for late November! !!

[Snowy L]

23 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Unbelievable in here, you would think this week is going to be mild but it certainly isnt!.. The Ecm 12z indicates, windchill, frost, ice and Snow in the reliable timeframe!

 

 

Unless its snowing I would rather it was mild. At least then I will be saving on energy bills while miserable.

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

if that's an "absolutely dire" run Feb, then you're in the wrong hobby - this is brilliant model watching.

I agree paul, it's the most exciting period of model watching since..I can't remember

There is a realistic chance the next few weeks or more could be sensational for cold weather fans!

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

if that's an "absolutely dire" run Feb, then you're in the wrong hobby - this is brilliant model watching.

If you had looked at this run in comparison to average UK 10 day periods of Dec weather then yes, its not too bad, but its a curveball, we didn't want any shortwave dramas, so viewed in comparison to the other output today, then it's Kieron I'm afraid.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, frosty ground said:

I think his point was it's not dire run. Unless of course your looking for sustained mild

I can't comment on the hyperbole, but the run isn't great when you consider what has gone before. We actually have S'ly winds on that run in a more reliable timeframe than the N'ly at the end!

[The Beast From The East]

23 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

You can't make this up. The high pressure just never goes away.

Yesterday 

Today

Its amazing like a magnet pulls it home over the southern med. Can we not just move spain up next to Greenland for the winter? Promise were move it back intime for summer.

[Paul_1978]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I'd suggest you're in the wrong hobby if you're spending more time pointing out people's grammatical errors rather than providing any meaningful analysis of the NWP.

To me it's more of a case of getting too emotional with each run as Zakos pointed out. If you think back to 2015 and many other winters and then think this latest EC run is 'absolutely dire' then I don't understand it.

[carinthian]

What a fantastic winter chart that is from ECM. Northerly air mass sourced from the deepest Arctic and Northern Siberia. We never had a chart like that for the whole of last winter and some folk on here say its dire run !

 C

[blizzard81]

I find much comfort in the fact that no matter what is thrown at us with regards to shortwaves etc, the end result remains the same - full blown winter. 

 

 

 

 

[Paul]

Can I suggest that those who simply want to moan (or ramp) with no model discussion around that head to the banter thread, as it'll save you making those posts in here only to have them removed.

 

[swfc]

Just now, carinthian said:

What a fantastic winter chart that is from ECM. Northerly air mass sourced from the deepest Arctic and Northern Siberia. We never had a chart like that for the whole of last winter and some folk on here say its dire run !

 C

Thanks for that carinthian.thought it was just me who thought it was ok 

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

To me it's more of a case of getting too emotional with each run as Zakos pointed out. If you think back to 2015 and many other winters and then think this latest EC run is 'absolutely dire' then I don't understand it.

The ECM has trended towards the GEM and so too has the JMA tonight...that's why people are rightly concerned.

One or two more corrections and the ECM would look more like this at 240 hrs than it does currently

We were close to getting nothing at all from that ECM run...a whisker away in fact.

Edited November 27, 2017 by CreweCold

[tight isobar]

5 minutes ago, carinthian said:

What a fantastic winter chart that is from ECM. Northerly air mass sourced from the deepest Arctic and Northern Siberia. We never had a chart like that for the whole of last winter and some folk on here say its dire run !

 C

Its fantastic at this stage!

Its just the minor exactions being highlighted...

But the theme remains strongly polar driven...

Huh- we are a hard bunch to please...myself included ?

 

Edited November 27, 2017 by tight isobar

[carinthian]

1 minute ago, swfc said:

Thanks for that carinthian.thought it was just me who thought it was ok 

There is never an easy route to cold in the British Isles but basically the block remains which is a good thing for cold lovers. What I like about the end of this ECM is the much lower heights over Iberia, this should allow a deeper incursion into Western Europe of the Arctic airmass. There will be more ebbs and flows but cold seems likely to dominate for some weeks yet.

 C

[Rocheydub]

Fascinating viewing this... Not the NWP, but peoples reactions to a slight change at 7/8 days away! Relax people, it will all change again next run. Looking at minor changes that ALWAYS occur at the 5-6 day range always have much bigger changes down the line. The overall picture remains, unorganised vortex, a Strat warming on the cards, low pressure nearby us. These little nuances always occur. It will all be different tomorrow anyway!

[frosty ground]

9 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I can't comment on the hyperbole, but the run isn't great when you consider what has gone before. We actually have S'ly winds on that run in a more reliable timeframe than the N'ly at the end!

The southerly was a possibility if you saw this morning's run.... again I did state that there could be an issue of the low cutting of the artic air... . But even after it interferes it still goes cold.

 

[Zakos]

6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The ECM has trended towards the GEM and so too has the JMA tonight...that's why people are rightly concerned.

One or two more corrections and the ECM would look more like this at 240 hrs than it does currently

We were close to getting nothing at all from that ECM run...a whisker away in fact.

Crewe how can a single model run indicate a trend ? There is little cause for concern in my opinion, especially when you consider the run still ends with a significant cold spell for the UK

[frosty ground]

8 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The ECM has trended towards the GEM and so too has the JMA tonight...that's why people are rightly concerned.

One or two more corrections and the ECM would look more like this at 240 hrs than it does currently

We were close to getting nothing at all from that ECM run...a whisker away in fact.

As for operational runs trending towards each other what about the rest of the ensembles?

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended at t168 has dropped the high over the UK and now introduces a northwesterly

00z

Edited November 27, 2017 by Summer Sun

[swfc]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The ECM has trended towards the GEM and so too has the JMA tonight...that's why people are rightly concerned.

One or two more corrections and the ECM would look more like this at 240 hrs than it does currently

We were close to getting nothing at all from that ECM run...a whisker away in fact.

Concerned??? Its weather lol.its one run and ten days away. The flipping of runs has been going on nearly 14 days now. Tom will be different again maybe better or worse. Its computer generated and subject to change.the synoptics given the fluctuations in the nhp may be subject to big changes in 24 hours ie the gfs 18z the other night.getting hung up on it won't help or change things either!!!

[gottolovethisweather]

 

 

Edit: post edited below as I lost original. Hopefully still makes some sort of sense.

 

My one paragraph summary would broadly be as below but holy moley, maxes of 2-3c on Thursday now being quoted by the BBC, snow prospects too with those sort of temperatures, for sure.

According to our main model of trust, the ECM, the first half of the operational 12z output is that of "as you were", wintry precipitation for most coastal parts for a time, arctic blasts of air nationwide (pretty much) and a potential wintry event for the SE on Thursday. The second half i.e. post t+144 hints at complicated natural forces at work, could go this way, could go that. In summary, no double-digit maxes bar the extreme West and Southwest likely for the next ten days, a lot of dry weather around, freezing fog where skies clear, some wintriness. The interaction between those Euro Heights located where us coldies don't want them and that pesky energy (haven't got much now after reading ten pages and learning little really) only takes a grip on the projections by D8 or thereabouts. Is this nailed, no? Will it change, yes? Is my glass half full or empty? I am a happy-go-lucky type of guy and this current setup within the reliable is making me happy as the only comparable years, synoptically-speaking were probably 2010 and one or two others in the last twenty years.

Bring on the start of winter!

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 27, 2017 by gottolovethisweather

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Fascinating viewing this... Not the NWP, but peoples reactions to a slight change at 7/8 days away! Relax people, it will all change again next run. Looking at minor changes that ALWAYS occur at the 5-6 day range always have much bigger changes down the line. The overall picture remains, unorganised vortex, a Strat warming on the cards, low pressure nearby us. These little nuances always occur. It will all be different tomorrow anyway!

The issue is everything is interconnected-

We need this GH episode to manifest to allow the trop vortex to remain perturbed. The strat is still running cold and will require the blocking patterns we have seen modelled to allow the minor warming we are seeing occur frequently in FI.

As we saw last year, once the trop blocking ceases, we are likely to see the westerlies take hold, and without that minor warming to perpetuate the trop blocking pattern further into December, the rest of winter holds nowhere near the promise. It's easier to just to get this blocking episode over the line rather than rely on a pie in the sky SSW sometime later in winter.

[gottolovethisweather]

7 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Fascinating viewing this... Not the NWP, but peoples reactions to a slight change at 7/8 days away! Relax people, it will all change again next run. Looking at minor changes that ALWAYS occur at the 5-6 day range always have much bigger changes down the line. The overall picture remains, unorganised vortex, a Strat warming on the cards, low pressure nearby us. These little nuances always occur. It will all be different tomorrow anyway!

A reasoned post if there ever was one. 

[Methuselah]

Being as coining of the term 'blizzard' has been already attributed to one Davy Crocket, I'll have to invent a new term for a fast-moving swarm of children's toys...?

Och well, seeing as the outlook, as suggested by today's model-runs, looks pretty good to me...So, with that done-and-dusted, it's off to the wild frontier!

Edited November 27, 2017 by Ed Stone