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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Early days but again GFS 12z continues to show a lot less cold weather around especially for coastal areas in the S & W of the U.K. by the weekend, up to 10C in west Wales and SW England but just 3-4C in SE England on Saturday similar on Sunday too, cooler in the west Monday but becoming milder (except in Scotland) once again by Tuesday.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Disappointing.

ECH1-192.GIF?27-0

Really hope ECM is making a meal of ridge/trough alignment but it is somewhat backed by GFS.

UKMO has pretty much gone from worst to first today.

Never straightforward is it? Even when few moving parts it seems.

I'm sure we will get there in the end though.

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

What an absolute mess

ECM.thumb.gif.41ac83694c16ed2c61c8aadf21a67fe2.gif

Shortwaves and high pressure just flabbing about all over the place

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Eeesh, dreaded west based :bad:

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

A little concerning that the gem' is smelling this signal!

And ecm has hints also!!!

Ay, can see 216 being tropical 12 degrees south

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Ec has most -england in a southerly flow..

And we need urgent height align and rapid convection northward......

Sledge vs bbq's atm!!!?

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
1 minute ago, booferking said:

The models just never agree i give up:angry: pure joke one comes onboard the other flips the other road.

The warning signs were there with the GFS/GEFS...there has been an increased signal for Mediterranean heights today and as I said, this is never ever a good thing!

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The ECM shows why the behaviour of those shortwaves in the Atlantic is crucial , however as long as the shortwave to the south doesn’t deepen too much before engaging the trough over the UK this can be overcome .

 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

JMA not looking good either I'm afraid.

JN180-21.GIF?27-12

No conclusions can be drawn this evening. Let's see how things develop tomorrow.

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Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District

Wow.

Freezer to Sauna in 12 hours.  Might be a blip but a very big one to correct.

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Going forward is anybodies guess. It seems like the weather charts have just imploded tonight with no real clear signal either way. UKMO has gone from the worst scenario to offering the best, a massive backtrack towards the colder solution so naturally all the other charts swing the other way. 

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Rescue Job at 216... 

2BE16B7B-B412-462D-80F2-2ADFAFB4B582.thumb.png.e5585079b77d431b29a1c1505ad1d510.png

what drama :vava:

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Unbelievable in here, you would think this week is going to be mild but it certainly isnt!.. The Ecm 12z indicates, windchill, frost, ice and Snow in the reliable timeframe!:D:santa-emoji::reindeer-emoji::cold-emoji::drunk-emoji:

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Any anti-coldie..

Couldnt have picked this shortwave by hand and placed it better!

..

Distrupting the flow north...

And aiding a southerly feed!!!!

Comical!!

Screenshot_2017-11-27-18-51-37.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Wellingborough

very encouraging from the ECM

ECH1-216.GIF?27-0ECH101-216.GIF?27-0

It shows that even with a potential delay in the second cold shot caused by the sinking high, the cold still makes inroads.

Those pesky heights over europe are swiftly brushed aside.

ECH101-240.GIF?27-0

With such bullish blocking in the atlantic, and with such a timid jet stream, I would wager that cold weather in some form is almost inevitable.

 

Edited by Zakos
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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington

Dear me this thread has more up and downs then a Greek tragedy  think I might read The Odyssey for some light relief. 12z certainly tries to put a spanner in the works  just a blip I expect  signals still remain good  see you for the 18z 

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