Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

GFS very little change to the 06z out to +72, here comes the important 48hrs.

gfsnh-0-72.thumb.png.abb244d625ee36b05a74138eca27ff1c.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Not a great deal of change so far from GFS the high is slightly further SE compared to the 06z but remaining cold nationwide

gfs-0-90.thumb.png.644019dde414e7645d18782cc2e0bf0c.pnggfs-1-90.thumb.png.f5f76e95a9bfa1f370f474c0d2cf936f.png

06z

gfs-0-96.thumb.png.e6444ac54cd3e0f7ab18f8a0f456828a.pnggfs-1-96.thumb.png.90db0def26e70a9035a5d5ba0b668af1.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Big 12z coming up, hoping the models can build on the earlier gfs  / ecm with more potent cold shot (s) lining up to attack the uk from the nw / n from next week onwards. There is always a chance the longer term signal from around mid dec could change and keep the cold longer if it becomes really entrenched. The upcoming cold snap this week looks like reaching its peak on Thursday with snow falling to low levels as well as widespread frosts for most of this week and a significant windchill during the arctic Northerly..enjoy it coldies..this could be the start of something special during the coming weeks!:cold::santa-emoji:☺?..fingers crossed.

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Wild!
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis

I think all of the models including the UKMO are pointing to another Nly next week. A much colder Nly too.  That high pressure mid atlantic looks like it is setting up home for early winter and not leaving anytime soon. Together with a willing Greenie High I can see a few Nly s this year. I will go and get my sledge!

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: High Wycombe
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold.
  • Location: High Wycombe
4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Not a great deal of change so far from GFS the high is slightly further SE compared to the 06z but remaining cold nationwide

gfs-0-90.thumb.png.644019dde414e7645d18782cc2e0bf0c.pnggfs-1-90.thumb.png.f5f76e95a9bfa1f370f474c0d2cf936f.png

06z

gfs-0-96.thumb.png.e6444ac54cd3e0f7ab18f8a0f456828a.pnggfs-1-96.thumb.png.90db0def26e70a9035a5d5ba0b668af1.png

Looking at those charts, I can't see anyway for the Atlantic to get back in on the action. Logically,  would say that the most likely outcome is for the HP to link up NE into Greenland and reload the northerly, thus drawing the LP above Scandi down across western europe. (Rose tinted???)

 

 

Edited by Gavin Hannah
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Wild!
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis

Forgot to ask, at the end of the Meto weekly forecast, the forecaster suggests even colder next week. Though the UKMO only went out to 120hrs? 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis
  • Weather Preferences: Wild!
  • Location: Isle Of Lewis
2 minutes ago, Gavin Hannah said:

Looking at those charts, I can't see anyway for the Atlantic to get back in on the action. Logically,  would say that the most likely outcome is for the HP to link up NE into Greenland and reload the northerly, thus drawing the LP above Scandi down across western europe. (Rose tinted???)

 

 

Not at all Gavin I think a few of us are thinking the same. 

Edited by snowbunting
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Just now, snowbunting said:

Forgot to ask, at the end of the Meto weekly forecast, the forecaster suggests even colder next week. Though the UKMO only went out to 120hrs? 

UKMO goes out to t144 here: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?model=ukm&lid=OP

and 168 here: https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

UKMO at +96 looks an improvement to me.

UN96-21.thumb.gif.103b7a397b309f91dba9d97f922d20ad.gif

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

GFS & UKMO looking fairly similar at +120

gfsnh-120.thumb.png.a1390c9c6e3bd29b33458b4e233eb736.pngUN120-21.thumb.gif.0f830b08620c7e63b0a16fe454be6cb7.gif

Edited by karlos1983
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

The amoun of shortwaves that form around Greenland really riles me, the high is begging to float up there but it won't be allowed. The reason why true GH's are like hens teeth.

Always feels like we need 10 bites at the cherry to get anywhere

Edited by Weathizard
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO and GFS both showing the coldest air easing away at t120

UW120-7.thumb.GIF.1fb5412841e7f13e151f85fdd1b2b761.GIFgfs-1-120.thumb.png.466a51b7469598973229169f436712a2.png

Hopefully only briefly!;):spiteful:

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO and GFS both showing the coldest air easing away at t120

UW120-7.thumb.GIF.1fb5412841e7f13e151f85fdd1b2b761.GIFgfs-1-120.thumb.png.466a51b7469598973229169f436712a2.png

Never fear Gavin - GFS about to show cold air roaring back - down from the North and UKMO would if it went far enough to.

gfsnh-0-138_awd2.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO and GFS both showing the coldest air easing away at t120

UW120-7.thumb.GIF.1fb5412841e7f13e151f85fdd1b2b761.GIFgfs-1-120.thumb.png.466a51b7469598973229169f436712a2.png

With any luck, they'll both be showing the next, even colder, reload, too?:santa-emoji:

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

UKMO Looking much better and similar to the GFS at 144h

UE144-21_maa5.GIFgfseu-0-144_zii7.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent

This angst seems to be with the Canadian lobe of the PV shifting over the to Eurasia side of the globe, to do this, heights have to drop to the north as it moved across.

We want this to happen, as the PV will also pull the colder air across with it, and hopefully end up as a Euro trough.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

One thing for sure, it's D7 chart won't look anything like this later :yahoo:

ukm2.2017120400_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.984dd3dfd83cea8baf94b99a5bcd8adc.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...