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Paul

Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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GFS very little change to the 06z out to +72, here comes the important 48hrs.

gfsnh-0-72.thumb.png.abb244d625ee36b05a74138eca27ff1c.png

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Not a great deal of change so far from GFS the high is slightly further SE compared to the 06z but remaining cold nationwide

gfs-0-90.thumb.png.644019dde414e7645d18782cc2e0bf0c.pnggfs-1-90.thumb.png.f5f76e95a9bfa1f370f474c0d2cf936f.png

06z

gfs-0-96.thumb.png.e6444ac54cd3e0f7ab18f8a0f456828a.pnggfs-1-96.thumb.png.90db0def26e70a9035a5d5ba0b668af1.png

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Big 12z coming up, hoping the models can build on the earlier gfs  / ecm with more potent cold shot (s) lining up to attack the uk from the nw / n from next week onwards. There is always a chance the longer term signal from around mid dec could change and keep the cold longer if it becomes really entrenched. The upcoming cold snap this week looks like reaching its peak on Thursday with snow falling to low levels as well as widespread frosts for most of this week and a significant windchill during the arctic Northerly..enjoy it coldies..this could be the start of something special during the coming weeks!:cold::santa-emoji:☺😉..fingers crossed.

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I think all of the models including the UKMO are pointing to another Nly next week. A much colder Nly too.  That high pressure mid atlantic looks like it is setting up home for early winter and not leaving anytime soon. Together with a willing Greenie High I can see a few Nly s this year. I will go and get my sledge!

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4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Not a great deal of change so far from GFS the high is slightly further SE compared to the 06z but remaining cold nationwide

gfs-0-90.thumb.png.644019dde414e7645d18782cc2e0bf0c.pnggfs-1-90.thumb.png.f5f76e95a9bfa1f370f474c0d2cf936f.png

06z

gfs-0-96.thumb.png.e6444ac54cd3e0f7ab18f8a0f456828a.pnggfs-1-96.thumb.png.90db0def26e70a9035a5d5ba0b668af1.png

Looking at those charts, I can't see anyway for the Atlantic to get back in on the action. Logically,  would say that the most likely outcome is for the HP to link up NE into Greenland and reload the northerly, thus drawing the LP above Scandi down across western europe. (Rose tinted???)

 

 

Edited by Gavin Hannah
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Forgot to ask, at the end of the Meto weekly forecast, the forecaster suggests even colder next week. Though the UKMO only went out to 120hrs? 

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2 minutes ago, Gavin Hannah said:

Looking at those charts, I can't see anyway for the Atlantic to get back in on the action. Logically,  would say that the most likely outcome is for the HP to link up NE into Greenland and reload the northerly, thus drawing the LP above Scandi down across western europe. (Rose tinted???)

 

 

Not at all Gavin I think a few of us are thinking the same. 

Edited by snowbunting

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UKMO looks pretty steady out to t120 for the UK

UW120-21.thumb.GIF.007dc8f591ec6333267e831c5cd624f8.GIF

00z

2.thumb.GIF.5ff8f4df2cce54649407636460ab9988.GIF

Edited by Summer Sun
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GFS & UKMO looking fairly similar at +120

gfsnh-120.thumb.png.a1390c9c6e3bd29b33458b4e233eb736.pngUN120-21.thumb.gif.0f830b08620c7e63b0a16fe454be6cb7.gif

Edited by karlos1983
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The amoun of shortwaves that form around Greenland really riles me, the high is begging to float up there but it won't be allowed. The reason why true GH's are like hens teeth.

Always feels like we need 10 bites at the cherry to get anywhere

Edited by Weathizard

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1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO and GFS both showing the coldest air easing away at t120

UW120-7.thumb.GIF.1fb5412841e7f13e151f85fdd1b2b761.GIFgfs-1-120.thumb.png.466a51b7469598973229169f436712a2.png

Hopefully only briefly!;):spiteful:

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2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO and GFS both showing the coldest air easing away at t120

UW120-7.thumb.GIF.1fb5412841e7f13e151f85fdd1b2b761.GIFgfs-1-120.thumb.png.466a51b7469598973229169f436712a2.png

Never fear Gavin - GFS about to show cold air roaring back - down from the North and UKMO would if it went far enough to.

gfsnh-0-138_awd2.png

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Good to see the UKMO improve this afternoon. It has been a pain in the... well you know where.

 

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4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO and GFS both showing the coldest air easing away at t120

UW120-7.thumb.GIF.1fb5412841e7f13e151f85fdd1b2b761.GIFgfs-1-120.thumb.png.466a51b7469598973229169f436712a2.png

With any luck, they'll both be showing the next, even colder, reload, too?:santa-emoji:

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This angst seems to be with the Canadian lobe of the PV shifting over the to Eurasia side of the globe, to do this, heights have to drop to the north as it moved across.

We want this to happen, as the PV will also pull the colder air across with it, and hopefully end up as a Euro trough.

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One thing for sure, it's D7 chart won't look anything like this later :yahoo:

ukm2.2017120400_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.984dd3dfd83cea8baf94b99a5bcd8adc.png

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Need to see some ridging soon on GFS 12z or that high is going to sink...

Great news ukmo has backed off :)

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