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Daniel*

UK & Ireland, Cold Spell Discussion - 26/11/17 onwards

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I was surprised there was no thread, so here’s one. A thread for all discussion related to the upcoming cold spell. :) 

Try to keep things civil and nice please!...

I bet most folk if not all, never expected for us to be staring down the barrel of a potentially prolonged cold quite wintry pattern. It was only last week when NWP painted a quite sterile picture, with some providing commentary of the fat lady in full voice following the less successful blocking outcome.

ECM / GFS / UKMO @T72 & 96hrs

Universal agreement on a ‘very’ cold sourced northerly airstream a stone’s throw away, it’s been a while, however this may be the appetiser to the main event into week 2 - I’ve seen been thrown about. In recent days we’ve seen the models lower the uppers, thus increasing the chance of wintry precipitation to low levels - mid next week. Our mid Atlantic ridge does not look to persist stationary, there is considerable uncertainty as we enter early December, nonetheless there is certainty that it will be cold & blocked. Indications are it will topple but not as we know it, ultimately cutting off the cold flow, however remaining cold to very cold on the surface. Thereafter, these +ve heights could retrogress to the north west with another Arctic blast or northeast with an easterly flow.

Very interesting times  

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Edited by Daniel*
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not much of a response @Daniel* 

they must all be looking for the next cold spell lol.

i'll start then, i like the look of the 06z, nice little snowstorm for our little patch-

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:D

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1 hour ago, bobbydog said:

not much of a response @Daniel* 

they must all be looking for the next cold spell lol.

i'll start then, i like the look of the 06z, nice little snowstorm for our little patch-

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:D

Huge overwhelming response :D I raise you. :wink: 

One to watch as the cold air may want to be challenged, but it remains in situ east of IOW on this run, I noticed the latest GFS 06z keeps more of S/E Britain under the cold air a good trend. The potential is there for a band of snowfall later in the upcoming week, snow risk emboldened for us more east.

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lets see if the 12z can come up with something even better.....

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Probably because, Thursday apart, we are looking at up to 10 days of temps that dont support widespread snow. No continental influence yet, and very early in the season in any case to get temps low enough to support a cold pattern. There is a fairly simple reason why most winter spells of note have occurred in Jan/Feb. Late Nov / early Dec is a stretch.

 

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Are we going to get dedicated threads every time temperatures are a little below average? 

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24 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Probably because, Thursday apart, we are looking at up to 10 days of temps that dont support widespread snow. No continental influence yet, and very early in the season in any case to get temps low enough to support a cold pattern. There is a fairly simple reason why most winter spells of note have occurred in Jan/Feb. Late Nov / early Dec is a stretch.

 

The recent memory of that 2010 cold spell of late Nov/early Dec gives us hope that it can happen at this time of year

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3 minutes ago, cheese said:

Are we going to get dedicated threads every time temperatures are a little below average? 

Hey, it's a free country. There are all kinds of diverse threads on here, football, politics etc. Surely kicking off a short term discussion on a fluctuation in weather patterns, and possibly the first 'wintery' weather for some shouldn't be frowned upon?

C'mon, there's plenty of other threads if you don't feel this one's worthy!

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20 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Probably because, Thursday apart, we are looking at up to 10 days of temps that dont support widespread snow. No continental influence yet, and very early in the season in any case to get temps low enough to support a cold pattern. There is a fairly simple reason why most winter spells of note have occurred in Jan/Feb. Late Nov / early Dec is a stretch.

 

A month or two latter most likely would have resulted in a more potent northerly air stream but the upcoming one is not to be sniffed at, not mediocre. High latitudes have rapidly cooled, the snow conducive cold air is there. Later next week we see a slight veer to the east...sourced from over the snowfields of Scandinavia for a time. This may allow (snow probably falling of the convective kind may push inland) for a time for snow to fall quite widely to low levels across the eastern half of England. The near continent can also rapidly cool at ease at this point of time. The preceding winters to this one I think, I recall a northerly on paper was impressive, it generated some hype on here. And despite that on the surface average temperatures were recorded. I’m quite sure that was in February not early winter. A combination of a bit of a luck is need and with the state of the Arctic it’s hard to foresee. The reason why I thought there would have been more excitement, is how darn awful winters have been since March 2013, while this is certainly not looking exceptional - as ever we will see how things unfold. I happen to feel this is best go at it for a number of years and as such I made this thread. 

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18 minutes ago, cheese said:

Are we going to get dedicated threads every time temperatures are a little below average? 

A little below average? On Thursday T850 temps 10C below normal for parts of the West Country. 

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NetWx-SR T+48hrs as far as it goes -10C 850hPa temps just off Scotland’s north coast. Frigid. The Arctic may be warming but we’re getting an impressive early season cold blast. 

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Edited by Daniel*

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The heavy showers we've had for most of the night have now turned to sleet. The 850hPa temps are only around -4C right now, so that bodes well for tonight and tomorrow when they should dip to -7C or -8C.

There should at least be some falling snow to low levels. Its pretty marginal though so wouldnt be too surprised if its not quite cold enough. Fingers crossed.

 

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Yep settling nicely even down to low coastal levels. This is at just 13m in East Yorkshire...

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Those bemoaning the likelihood of snow down to low levels earlier on this month, well look at what has happened today, despite the high SST's, many places in the east have seen snow, down to sea level, and not just a dust and miss it affair, uppers and dewpoints have been conducive - some were arguing we can't get such conditions anymore..

We haven't needed a sustained period of very cold conditions, yes the drier colder conditions have helped a bit in this case,

Get the right synoptics and the snow will come. End of debate!

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Indeed. We managed a cover of around 1cm in the end. It doesn't sound much, but its the most since January 2013 here. It has mostly remained intact aswell, due to a max temp of just 1.7C. That's actually the lowest November maximum since 1993.

A short sharp cold snap, but actually rather impressive for this neck of the woods so early!

Edited by reef
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For the fourthcoming cold spell (appears to be a more significant one). Let’s keep it going in this thread...

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On 30/11/2017 at 21:33, reef said:

Indeed. We managed a cover of around 1cm in the end. It doesn't sound much, but its the most since January 2013 here. It has mostly remained intact aswell, due to a max temp of just 1.7C. That's actually the lowest November maximum since 1993.

A short sharp cold snap, but actually rather impressive for this neck of the woods so early!

Wow that stat is rather remarkable. I would have thought 2010 would have done better. Some decent falls of snow for the East Coast with ‘lake effect snows’. I bet it caught a fair few off guard. 

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