December 2017 C.E.T. forecasts -- start of 2017/18 competition year -- and an optional precip contest begins

[BornFromTheVoid]

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

4.8C to the 23rd... 0.0    (8.7: +4.0)
5.0C to the 24th... +0.2    (9.5: +4.8)
5.2C to the 25th... +0.5    (10.4: +5.9) [Record high daily mean = 10.4C from 1824 and 1983]
5.2C to the 26th... +0.4    (4.5: +0.2)
5.1C to the 27th... +0.4    (3.5: -0.4)
5.0C to the 28th... +0.3    (2.5: -1.6)
5.0C to the 29th... +0.4    (4.7: +0.8)
5.2C to the 30th... +0.5    (9.8: +5.6)
5.3C to the 31st... +0.7    (9.8: +5.4)

Despite some cold temperatures just after xmas in the north, a mild end to the month overall for the CET zones now looks like taking things above average for the month, with even a shot at the mildest Christmas day on record!

[damianslaw]

Mmm surprised if we see the mildest christmas day on record, temps will be dropping through the day.. we shall see. 2011 was very mild, indeed we've had a run of very mild christmas days since 2010.

The overall CET value for Dec will probably come in just above average, which will feel right, given the cold first half, and milder second. A very episodic month, similiar in some respects to how 2012 panned out.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 4.4C -0.9C below average. No change in rainfall.

[The PIT]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Mmm surprised if we see the mildest christmas day on record, temps will be dropping through the day.. we shall see. 2011 was very mild, indeed we've had a run of very mild christmas days since 2010.

The overall CET value for Dec will probably come in just above average, which will feel right, given the cold first half, and milder second. A very episodic month, similiar in some respects to how 2012 panned out.

2015 was very mild 12.9C here 2014 we had a load of Snow on boxing day with a water content of 34mm. Local forecast shows a high of 9C for the big day.

Edited December 23, 2017 by The PIT

[BornFromTheVoid]

4 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Mmm surprised if we see the mildest christmas day on record, temps will be dropping through the day.. we shall see. 2011 was very mild, indeed we've had a run of very mild christmas days since 2010.

The overall CET value for Dec will probably come in just above average, which will feel right, given the cold first half, and milder second. A very episodic month, similiar in some respects to how 2012 panned out.

The 10.4C for xmas day is the coolest of the December daily records, so it's low hanging fruit - relatively! Even though the temperature does look like dropping during the day, leading up to it we have several mild days with climbing minina, so that the forecast minimum is about 9.5C for the 25th. It's doesn't take exceptionally mild temperatures early xmas day for the record to be beaten, after a min of 9.5C a maximum of 11.4C is all that would be needed for a new (provisional) record.

[NorthYorksWeather]

3.2c here to the 23rd, 0.8c below the 1981-2010 average.

Couple more rises likely, before colder temps arrive on Boxing day.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 4.6C -0.7C below normal. No change in rainfall.

[Summer Sun]

4.8 to the 23rd

0.1 below the 61 to 90 average

Bang on the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 6.9 to the 7th

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 4.7C  -0.5 below normal. Rainfall up to 35mm 40.3% of average

[The PIT]

Using the latest forecast it looks like we will end up bang on average for Sunny Sheffield with below average rainfall.

[Summer Sun]

5.0 to the 24th

0.1 above the 61 to 90 average

0.2 above the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 6.9 to the 7th

[Mapantz]

It hasn't been particularly cold here, 13 double-digit maximums. Only two cold days.

My average is at 6.2°C that's 0.2°C above the MetO derived average for this area.

[NorthYorksWeather]

3.7c here to the 25th, 0.3c below the 1981-2010 average.

Drops now likely until the weekend, it will be close but it looks like we scrape a 2nd consecutive below average month, although not by much.

[Summer Sun]

5.2 to the 25th

0.4 above the 61 to 90 average

0.4 above the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 6.9 to the 7th

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 4.9C -0.2C below normal. Rainfall 41.1mm 47.3% of average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Rolling CET Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg... (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

5.2C to the 26th +0.4... (4.7: +0.4)
5.1C to the 27th +0.4... (2.8: -1.2)
4.9C to the 28th +0.2... (1.0: -3.2)
4.9C to the 29th +0.3... (5.0: +1.1)
5.0C to the 30th +0.3... (6.0: +1.8)
5.0C to the 31st +0.4... (5.5: +1.1)

Christmas day came in at 10.2C, so just 0.2C off the daily record. The GFS outlook now has the month finishing on 5.0C, so the 81-10 value of 4.6C is still an outside possibility after corrections. For now, I'd say say a finish of 4.8C to 5.2C before, and 4.3C to 5.3C after corrections is most likely.

[Summer Sun]

5.2 to the 26th

0.4 above the 61 to 90 average

0.5 above the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 6.9 to the 7th

[The PIT]

No change in average 4.9C, -0.2C below normal, Rainfall 47.1mm 54.2% of average

[NorthYorksWeather]

3.6c here to the 26th, 0.3c below the 1981-2010 average.

Back to around 3c by the weekend followed by a couple of late rises, so landing zone 3.2-3.5c currently.

[Summer Sun]

5.1 to the 27th

0.3 above the 61 to 90 average

0.4 above the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 6.9 to the 7th

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 4.7C -0.3C below normal. Rainfall 47.6mm 54.8% of average

[Chris.R]

5.4°C here, 0.3°C above the 1981-2010 average. Much closer to the cet now that the sea is cooling. 

[damianslaw]

I suspect we will end up about 4.9 degrees with corrections, but a slight chance these are significant enough to produce a bang on average CET value or even just below.. 

[Summer Sun]

5.0 to the 28th

0.3 above the 61 to 90 average

0.3 above the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 6.9 to the 7th

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 4.6C -0.3C below average. Rainfall 48.8mm 56.2% of rainfall.