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December 2017 C.E.T. forecasts -- start of 2017/18 competition year -- and an optional precip contest begins

Roger J Smith

By Roger J Smith
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Derecho Maestro

Derecho

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
Posted

Looking at the GFS 06z here are the following predictions for the daily CET till the end of the month. 

Here I presume the adjusted CET will be 3.7C given the meto usually adjust downwards. From the 18th onwards we have:

18th: Daily CET = 4.5C, December CET = 3.7C
19th: Daily CET = 4.6C, December CET = 3.8C
20th: Daily CET = 8.1C, December CET = 4.0C
21st: Daily CET = 9.7C, December CET = 4.3C
22nd: Daily CET = 7.5C, December CET = 4.4C
23rd: Daily CET = 7.5C, December CET = 4.6C
24th: Daily CET = 9.4C, December CET = 4.8C
25th: Daily CET = 5.8C, December CET = 4.8C
26th: Daily CET = 6.0C, December CET = 4.8C
27th: Daily CET = 5.1C, December CET = 4.9C
28th: Daily CET = 1.9C, December CET = 4.7C
29th: Daily CET = 1.4C, December CET = 4.6C
30th: Daily CET = 5.0C, December CET = 4.6C
31st: Daily CET = 6.0C, December CET = 4.7C

The 06z may be a bit on the colder side ensemble wise but it wouldn't surprise me if it verified

So it looks as though an average month is likely temperature wise. Perhaps below average in northern areas of the UK.

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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

4.6°C here, 0.7°C below the 1981-2010 average.

A rise expected from tomorrow. 

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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted

Here's how I see the 06z GFS and the CET...

Rolling CET Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg... (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

3.9C to the 18th... -1.0    (3.0: -1.4)
4.0C to the 19th... -0.9    (5.9: +1.6)
4.2C to the 20th... -0.6    (7.6: +3.9)
4.5C to the 21st... -0.3    (10.7: +6.5) [Daily record high mean = 11.4C from 1971)
4.7C to the 22nd... -0.1    (8.6: +4.1)
4.9C to the 23rd... +0.1    (9.1: +4.4)
5.1C to the 24th... +0.3    (9.9: +5.2) [Daily record high mean = 10.7C from 1843]
5.1C to the 25th... +0.3    (5.5: +1.0)
5.1C to the 26th... +0.4    (6.3: +2.0)
5.1C to the 27th... +0.4    (4.2: +0.3)

One or 2 daily records still appear to be within touching distance this week. It's also looking very likely that the CET will end up within 1C of the 81-10 average (4.6C)

ibeL8Zj.jpg

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Sunny Sheffield at 3.5C -2.2C below normal. Rainfall 33.8mm 38.9% of average

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Optimus Prime Rising Star

Optimus Prime

Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester
Posted
5 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Looking at the GFS 06z here are the following predictions for the daily CET till the end of the month. 

Here I presume the adjusted CET will be 3.7C given the meto usually adjust downwards. From the 18th onwards we have:

18th: Daily CET = 4.5C, December CET = 3.7C
19th: Daily CET = 4.6C, December CET = 3.8C
20th: Daily CET = 8.1C, December CET = 4.0C
21st: Daily CET = 9.7C, December CET = 4.3C
22nd: Daily CET = 7.5C, December CET = 4.4C
23rd: Daily CET = 7.5C, December CET = 4.6C
24th: Daily CET = 9.4C, December CET = 4.8C
25th: Daily CET = 5.8C, December CET = 4.8C
26th: Daily CET = 6.0C, December CET = 4.8C
27th: Daily CET = 5.1C, December CET = 4.9C
28th: Daily CET = 1.9C, December CET = 4.7C
29th: Daily CET = 1.4C, December CET = 4.6C
30th: Daily CET = 5.0C, December CET = 4.6C
31st: Daily CET = 6.0C, December CET = 4.7C

The 06z may be a bit on the colder side ensemble wise but it wouldn't surprise me if it verified

So it looks as though an average month is likely temperature wise. Perhaps below average in northern areas of the UK.

Seems like a likely outcome. I think you're right about northern areas too; somewhat below average and there might be some greater than normal deviations between districts. Certainly has felt like a proper December this year for a change. 

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

4.0 to the 18th

0.9 below the 61 to 90 average

0.9 below the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________

Current high this month 6.9 to the 7th

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NorthYorksWeather Experienced

NorthYorksWeather

Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
Posted

2.1c here to the 18th, 2.0c below the 1981-2010 average.

That looks like the lowest it will get this month, with much milder weather expected.

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted
29 minutes ago, vizzy2004 said:

2.1c here to the 18th, 2.0c below the 1981-2010 average.

That looks like the lowest it will get this month, with much milder weather expected.

It doesn’t look overly mild on course for a just below average month IMO. 

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cheeky_monkey Maestro

cheeky_monkey

Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
Posted

cloudy Edmonton is at -0.1c to the 18th which is nearly +13c above normal..have seen record breaking warmth the last 2/3 weeks...temps are set to fall through the floor particularity over Xmas and towards new year....fancy -40c anyone?

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Sunny Sheffield at 3.6C -2.0C  below average. Rainfall no change

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damianslaw Maestro

damianslaw

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
Posted
4 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

cloudy Edmonton is at -0.1c to the 18th which is nearly +13c above normal..have seen record breaking warmth the last 2/3 weeks...temps are set to fall through the floor particularity over Xmas and towards new year....fancy -40c anyone?

No not really as it means all that cold air will pool out of the USA and fire up the jetstream, sorry..

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

4.0 to the 19th

0.8 below the 61 to 90 average

0.9 below the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________

Current high this month 6.9 to the 7th

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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

4.7°C here, 0.5°C below the 1981-2010 average. Was at 4.5°C yesterday which will probably be the low point of the month. 

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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted

Rolling CET Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg... (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

4.2C to the 20th... -0.7    (7.4: +3.7)
4.4C to the 21st... -0.3    (10.3: +6.1)
4.7C to the 22nd... -0.1    (9.5: +5.0)
4.9C to the 23rd... 0.1    (8.9: +4.2)
5.1C to the 24th... 0.3    (10.0: +5.3) [Daily record high mean: 10.7C from 1843]
5.3C to the 25th... 0.5    (9.6: +5.1) [Daily record high mean: 10.4C from 1824 and 1983]
5.2C to the 26th... 0.5    (3.7: -0.6)
5.1C to the 27th... 0.4    (3.6: -0.3)
5.0C to the 28th... 0.3    (2.1: -2.0)
5.0C to the 29th... 0.4    (5.4: +1.5)

Looks like we're now reliant on corrections and some end of month cold in order to pull the CET down toward average. After corrections I'd put the chances of equal to or below average at about 40%.

JKkR9vE.jpg

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Sunny Sheffield up to 3.7C -1.8C below normal. Rainfall 33.9mm 39% of average

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

The latest GFS does show it becoming significantly colder during boxing day which if it verifies and persists until the end of the month should produce for us a below average month.

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

4.1 to the 20th

0.7 below the 61 to 90 average

0.7 below the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________

Current high this month 6.9 to the 7th

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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

5.0°C here, 0.2°C below the 1981-2010 average. 

Up up and away. 

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DAVID SNOW Veteran

DAVID SNOW

Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
Posted
23 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Rolling CET Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg... (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

4.2C to the 20th... -0.7    (7.4: +3.7)
4.4C to the 21st... -0.3    (10.3: +6.1)
4.7C to the 22nd... -0.1    (9.5: +5.0)
4.9C to the 23rd... 0.1    (8.9: +4.2)
5.1C to the 24th... 0.3    (10.0: +5.3) [Daily record high mean: 10.7C from 1843]
5.3C to the 25th... 0.5    (9.6: +5.1) [Daily record high mean: 10.4C from 1824 and 1983]
5.2C to the 26th... 0.5    (3.7: -0.6)
5.1C to the 27th... 0.4    (3.6: -0.3)
5.0C to the 28th... 0.3    (2.1: -2.0)
5.0C to the 29th... 0.4    (5.4: +1.5)

Looks like we're now reliant on corrections and some end of month cold in order to pull the CET down toward average. After corrections I'd put the chances of equal to or below average at about 40%.

JKkR9vE.jpg

Would not be surprised to see a 0.5 downward correction for this month.(imo)

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Sunny Sheffield up to 3.9C -1.6C below normal. Rainfall 34.4mm 39.6% of average.

GFs now swinging towards a colder outlook so if it verifies we should record a below average month.

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NorthYorksWeather Experienced

NorthYorksWeather

Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
Posted

2.6c here to the 20th, 1.4c below the 1981-2010 average.

Some very mild daily mean temps forecast for here in the run up to Xmas so wont be far off average by next week.

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

4.4 to the 21st

0.4 below the 61 to 90 average

0.4 below the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________

Current high this month 6.9 to the 7th

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Sunny Sheffield up to 4.2C -1.2C below normal. 34.6mm rainfall 39.8% of average

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cheeky_monkey Maestro

cheeky_monkey

Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
Posted

Breezy Edmonton is down to -3.6c which is still +10c above normal..brutal cold kicks in after tomorrow and the rest of Xmas week ...Xmas day forecast high is -26c 

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

4.6 to the 22nd

0.2 below the 61 to 90 average

0.2 below the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________

Current high this month 6.9 to the 7th

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