December 2017 C.E.T. forecasts -- start of 2017/18 competition year -- and an optional precip contest begins

[J10]

This figure this month of 4.8c.

This month 2 players got the figure spot on, Steve B and Don

The top 10 were. Monthly

and then Seasonal / Overall

PDF file version -> Dec 2017 CET New.pdf

XLSX file version ->Dec 2017 CET New.xlsx

 

Edited January 3, 2018 by J10

[Roger J Smith]

Still no update on EWP for our precip contest.

Here's a brief summary of how the three robotic control forecasters did in December. This year, instead of giving them just the top ranking among ties, I show the range of points and ranks from actual forecasters with the same error values. This will narrow down as we get into more months averaged out. This will be compared before those forecasters receive any late penalty deductions.

"Forecaster" ___ Error ___ Points (range) ___ rank (range)

1988-2017 ____ +0.2 ____ 89.4 - 93.4 ______ 6 to 9

1981-2010 ____ --0.2 ____ 89.4 - 93.4 ______ 6 to 9

Consensus ____--0.6 ____ 71.0 - 74.9 _____ 20 to 23

Edited January 4, 2018 by Roger J Smith

[johnholmes]

Its great to see this type of contest is still running. Just to remind myself I searched my weather data base and came across what must have been the last couple i organised, back in 2006. Cannot remember how long they ran along with one trying to get the forecast for various locations around the UK (not found that so far)

enjoy-good fun

[DAVID SNOW]

45 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Its great to see this type of contest is still running. Just to remind myself I searched my weather data base and came across what must have been the last couple i organised, back in 2006. Cannot remember how long they ran along with one trying to get the forecast for various locations around the UK (not found that so far)

enjoy-good fun

John I asked about 5 years to have a guess at the cet for that month, you did indeed, but never participated further., could I ask again, if you have the time could you post your monthly guesses for the rest of the months as they come along?

Genuine request, if it can be done,

[Roger J Smith]

Still no update on EWP for our precip contest. Should be soon, I have been building a data set for CEP and I usually find those posted about a week into each month. 

 

[Roger J Smith]

EWP now posted at 113.7 mm.

This ranked 57th wettest or 196th driest in the 252 year period of record. 

Scoring is posted in the CET competition thread.

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/75427-cet-competition-the-scores-ongoing/?page=8

The closest forecast would have held the same rank as the actual value, therefore under the rules, 0.0 deduction. The least accurate forecast was more than 50 ranks out, so under the rules scores 0.0. There were 51 entries or 50 intervals which neatly divides to 0.2 per ranking. In my scoring system, order of entry does not matter so ties are all given the same score and however many intervals that uses up applies to the next ranked forecast(s). Consensus and the two recent normals get scores based on the rest of the scoring but do not influence other scores. 

 

 

The top five scores are:

Score __ Forecast ___ Forecaster

10.0 ___ 114.5 _____ TIMMYTOUR

 9.8 ___ 111.3 ______ TERMINAL MORAINE

 9.6 ___ 110.1 ______ DR (S) NO

 9.4 ___ 109.5 ______ CHRIS BELL NOT THE WEATHERMAN

 9.2 ___ 119.1 ______ PEGG24