December 2017 C.E.T. forecasts -- start of 2017/18 competition year -- and an optional precip contest begins

[cheeky_monkey]

cold cold Edmonton down to -7.7c likely to fall further with some very cold weather in place for the next 3/4 days

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield UK just outside the CET zone running at 4.5C -0.3C below average however the change to milder conditions looks like we will end up bang on average. Rainfall 65mm 74.8% of average

[Summer Sun]

5.0 to the 29th

0.3 above the 61 to 90 average

0.3 above the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 6.9 to the 7th

[NorthYorksWeather]

3.3c here to the 29th, 0.6c below the 1981-2010 average.

Couple of rises likely now, so 3.5c probable finish (-0.3c)

[Chris.R]

5.3°C here, 0.3°C above the 1981-2010 average. The coldest December since 2012 at least, my statistics only go back that far. 

[Daniel*]

14 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

5.0 to the 29th

0.3 above the 61 to 90 average

0.3 above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________

Current high this month 6.9 to the 7th

Boo a below average month for a time looked all but secure. 2017 going out on a remarkably mild note. Shame that the CET is not a good reflection of the cold and snow a fair swathe of the country has seen.

[North-Easterly Blast]

We will most likely end this month similar to the CET for December 2012 after adjustments.  It is going to be tight as to whether we beat 2012's 4.8 and see the coldest December for seven years.  December 2017 is looking like a very average December for the CET, compared to both recent years, and the average for the whole of the 1900s as a whole.

At least this month all the cold spells have come from proper cold synoptics, and not mid-latitude Rex blocks (Faux cold) like we saw in months such as December 2007, and to some extent in late December last year.

 

[Guest]

I've not done this before but here goes.. cet 4.8 and ewp 74mm 

Sorry I've posted in the wrong thread.  Feel free to remove if you can.

Edited December 31, 2017 by Guest

[Summer Sun]

5.0 to the 30th

0.4 above the 61 to 90 average

0.4 above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________

Current high this month 6.9 to the 7th

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield will finish on 4.7C unless it gets very mild today or tonight which isn't likely.

[Matthew.]

18 hours ago, vizzy2004 said:

3.3c here to the 29th, 0.6c below the 1981-2010 average.

Couple of rises likely now, so 3.5c probable finish (-0.3c)

It’s been a cold quite snowy month in more northern areas. I think you have to go back to March 2013 to find the last time this happened

[Summer Sun]

December confirmed as 4.8c

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

4.75C, a drop of 0.4C, so another big correction this month.

[NorthYorksWeather]

Finished 3.5c here, 0.3c below the 1981-2010 average.

[damianslaw]

4.8 degrees final finish then, masking what was a very varied month, with some notable cold conditions at times earlier on, especially around 8-12th, but also some very mild conditions in the run up to christmas. So on balance about right, however, I think northern parts will have ended up with a colder than average month. Pity the mild spell occurred during run up to christmas, had we the synoptics of the 11 Dec on the 25 Dec then a much colder month would have manifested, following on from the rather cold conditions in second half of November - alas wasn't to be.

[Matthew.]

3 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

4.75C, a drop of 0.4C, so another big correction this month.

I’m guessing that’s the coldest CET for December since 2010 then

[BornFromTheVoid]

25 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

I’m guessing that’s the coldest CET for December since 2010 then

Joint coldest, more or less, with 2012. Of the 6 Decembers from 2005 to 2010, 4 were colder than this December.

[Methuselah]

On 27/11/2017 at 11:28, Ed Stone said:

I'll revise my guess down to 3.4C, please...it looks like that first half of the month will be so cold that it'll need a minor miracle for 4C to be exceeded..?

I hope so, anyway!

Oh dear. Please try harder!

[Matthew.]

1 hour ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Joint coldest, more or less, with 2012. Of the 6 Decembers from 2005 to 2010, 4 were colder than this December.

If we’re being pedantic was 2017s figure to 2 decimal places lower? 

[North-Easterly Blast]

December 2017 ended up a very close to average month, by the standards of recent years and the whole of the 1900s - in the last 100 years, 45 Decembers were colder, two had the same CET, and 52 were warmer.

Although temperatures were close to average, at least all the colder spells came from proper cold synoptics (not mid latitude Rex blocks), and a number of places have seen some snowfall both in the second week, and in a few colder days between Christmas and New Year.

[DAVID SNOW]

On ‎21‎/‎12‎/‎2017 at 12:19, DAVID SNOW said:

Would not be surprised to see a 0.5 downward correction for this month.(imo)

Close, but no cigar.

[Roger J Smith]

No report yet on EWP (the precip portion of our contest).

Looking at the table of entries for temperatures, SteveB and Don were on the mark for this month, first and second in points from order of entry.

DKeane3 and metaltron were 0.1 out on the high side (4.9) and Man with Beard 0.1 down at 4.7 C. That was also the order in which the three of them entered, so technically 3rd, 4th and 5th (to be confirmed by J10).

Among others, 1987-2016 (5.0) and 1981-2010 (4.6) were equally 0.2 distant. The PIT and Relativistic were also at 5.0 and Summer Blizzard shared 4.6 with Terminal Moraine. 

Mapantz (5.1) and sundog (4.5) were 0.3 degrees out, 

Our consensus was further out at 4.2 C. 

[Weather-history]

On 20/11/2017 at 13:47, Weather-history said:

Junes with a CET of 16.0C or greater are frequently followed at the end of the year by a below average December. Stats quirk?

2017: 4.8

2003: 4.8

1976: 2.0

1970: 4.3

1960: 3.9

1950: 1.2

1940: 3.8

1896: 3.9

1858: 4.8

1846: 0.5

1826: 5.8

1822: 1.6

1818: 3.6

1798: 1.5

1786: 2.8

1785: 2.8

1781: 5.4

1775: 4.5

1772: 4.8

1762: 3.6

1728: 1.6

1726: 1.6

1707: 3.5

1676: -0.5

1672: 4.5

 

16.0C+ Junes don't seem to favour very mild Decembers to follow

[Chris.R]

December here finished above average just, but was still the coldest Dec for 5 years which is saying somethingv. 

Mean min - 3.1°C (+0.6) 

Mean max - 7.6°C (+0.1)

Month mean - 5.4°C (+0.4)

4 air frosts (53.3%) 

2 hours of lying snow.

 The lowest minimum was on the 11th at -4.0°C, closely followed by the 12th at -3.9°C. The highest maximum was in the middle of the night on the 7th at 13.2°C.

Coldest day was -1.5°C on the 11th, and the warmest day was 9.9°C on the 6th. The 11th was the first sub-zero day since March 2013. 

Edited January 1, 2018 by Chris.R

[J10]

Just noticed that the CET figures has been confirmed, I will post the scores on Wednesday (probably early evening).