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December 2017 C.E.T. forecasts -- start of 2017/18 competition year -- and an optional precip contest begins


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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Cold, but not exceptionally so, for the next week to 10 days. The CET today is quite likely to be within 2C of the daily record (12.3C in 1856). To be that close to the daily record low, we'd need today to averaging around -4C!

Anyway, the 06z GFS has the CET as follows:

Rolling CET. Anomaly to 81-10 rolling CET.....(daily mean: anomaly to 81-10 daily mean)

7.1C to the 7th +1.4C......(10.6C: +5.8C)
6.5C to the 8th +1.0C......(2.3C: -2.1C)
5.8C to the 9th +0.4C......(0.6C: -3.9C)
5.3C to the 10th +0.0C.....(0.8C: -3.5C)
5.1C to the 11th -0.1C.....(2.7C: -1.5C)
4.8C to the 12th -0.3C.....(2.1C: -2.1C)
4.7C to the 13th -0.3C.....(3.5C: -1.1C)
4.6C to the 14th -0.5C.....(2.5C: -1.9C)
4.4C to the 15th -0.6C.....(2.1C: -2.5C)
4.3C to the 16th -0.7C.....(2.4C: -2.2C)
 

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield at 5.9C -0.6C some very cold weather over the weekend with temperatures around zero so big drops expected. Before then another rise tomorrow unless we hit a low value tonight.  

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

6.9 to the 7th

1.8 above the 61 to 90 average

1.2 above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________

Current high this month 6.9 to the 7th

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield up to 6.5C bang on average. Rainfall 7.1mm

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield down to 5.9C -0.4C below normal. No change in rainfall.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

6.3 to the 8th

1.2 above the 61 to 90 average

0.8 above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________

Current high this month 6.9 to the 7th

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

6.5°C here, 0.7°C above the 1981-2010 average.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m

3.7c here to the 9th, 0.9c below the 1981-2010 average.

Outlook stays cold so further drops likely.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Bit of a north-south divide at the moment which is skewing the CET values on the milder side, the week ahead looks cold, notably in the next 2-3 days so we should see the CET below average by next weekend, thereafter, a milder blip may occur, for how long who knows.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

5.7 to the 9th

0.7 above the 61 to 90 average

0.3 above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________

Current high this month 6.9 to the 7th

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
4 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

5.7 to the 9th

0.7 above the 61 to 90 average

0.3 above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________

Current high this month 6.9 to the 7th

Does it not make sense to quote the current low for the month, alongside the current high? I don't see any reason why we should favour one over the other.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield down to 5.3C -0.9C below normal. Rainfall 7.2mm

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

5.1 to the 10th

0.1 above the 61 to 90 average

0.2 below the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________

Current high this month 6.9 to the 7th

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

Balmy Edmonton is at -1.2c to the 10th Dec..thats +11c above normal...looks warm for the next 7 days.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Despite the cold spell, and the forecast drop in the CET, it seems the CET won't dip too far below average for the foreseeable future. Anything from well below average to moderately above average is still very much possible, depending on what the 2nd half of the month throws at us. Below is what the 06z GFS today shows for the CET.

Rolling CET Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg... (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

4.6C to the 11th  -0.6C... (-0.3C: -4.5C)    
4.2C to the 12th  -0.9C... (0.5C: -3.7C)    
4.0C to the 13th  -1.0C... (1.6C: -3.0C)    
4.0C to the 14th  -1.1C... (3.0C: -1.4C)    
3.9C to the 15th  -1.1C... (3.3C: -1.3C)    
3.8C to the 16th  -1.1C... (2.6C: -2.0C)    
3.8C to the 17th  -1.1C... (3.6C: -0.8C)    
3.7C to the 18th  -1.2C... (2.4C: -2.0C)    
3.7C to the 19th  -1.2C... (3.3C: -1.0C)    
3.8C to the 20th  -1.0C... (5.2:C +1.5C)    

 

Below is a graph showing this month's rolling CET in blue (plus 10 day forecast, shown by the thinner line), with the 81-10 rolling CET in orange, and the daily recorded and predicted values for the next ten days as black points. The max and min of the CET so far are shown by the orange and purple points respectively.

SumLYPw.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield down to 4.7C -1.5C below average.  Rainfall 9.2mm 10.6% of average.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

A marked drop likely over the coming days despite a bit of milder air. Today and tomorrow will produce very low means, possibly the lowest for four years, anyone have the stats?

From mid-month a probable rise or plateau, but far too early to call how the month will eventually play out, a milder phase may be cancelled out by a cold end.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

4.6 to the 11th

0.3 below the 61 to 90 average

0.6 below the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________

Current high this month 6.9 to the 7th

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Rolling CET Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg... (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

4.2C to the 12th... -0.9    (-0.4: -4.6)
4.0C to the 13th... -1.1    (1.7: -2.9)
3.9C to the 14th... -1.1    (2.9: -1.5)
3.8C to the 15th... -1.2    (2.2: -2.4)
3.6C to the 16th... -1.3    (1.4: -3.2)
3.6C to the 17th... -1.3    (2.8: -1.6)
3.6C to the 18th... -1.3    (4.2: -0.2)
3.8C to the 19th... -1.0    (7.5: +3.2)
4.0C to the 20th... -0.8    (7.8: +4.1)
4.2C to the 21st... -0.5    (8.3: +4.1)

nWjHurK.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield down to 4.2C  -1.9C below normal no change in rainfall.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m

2.7c here to the 11th, 1.7c below the 1981-2010 average.

11.7mm so far this month, so pretty dry,

Outlook remains below average until next week.

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