December 2017 C.E.T. forecasts -- start of 2017/18 competition year -- and an optional precip contest begins

[NorthYorksWeather]

1.5c here to the 1st, 3.5c below the 1981-2010 average.

Going to Iceland tomorrow so next update on the 10th.

[Summer Sun]

4.1 to the 2nd

0.9 below the 61 to 90 average

*81 to 10 average not available at the time of posting*

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Current high this month 4.1 to the 2nd

[Chris.R]

 6.6°C here, 1.6°C above the *end of month* 1981–2010 average. 

[Roger J Smith]

Limited internet after my move, can't copy table from Dec 2016 but CET 1981-2010 for 3rd to 6th are 5.9, 5.9, 6.0, 5.8.

Will post full table on 5th I hope.

 

[Roger J Smith]

On 11/30/2017 at 14:45, Singularity said:

3.7*C and 77 mm please. Surprised the LTA is so high in central parts but hey, you live and you learn 

If you meant LTA for precip the contest references all England and Wales precip. 

[Chris.R]

So that makes me 6.5°C to the 3rd here, 0.2°C above the 1981-2010 average. :-) 

[Singularity]

24 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

If you meant LTA for precip the contest references all England and Wales precip. 

Oh I see, thanks for letting me know 

[Relativistic]

12 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

4.1 to the 2nd

0.9 below the 61 to 90 average

*81 to 10 average not available at the time of posting*

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Current high this month 4.1 to the 2nd

Does it not make sense to quote the current low for the month, alongside the current high? I don't see any reason why we should favour one over the other.

[Summer Sun]

5.1 to the 3rd

0.1 above the 61 to 90 average

0.8 below the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 5.1 to the 3rd

[BornFromTheVoid]

According to the 06z GFS, we should be about 0.8C above the 81-10 average after the first week (6.4C). After that, we see a rapid cool down to 0.6C below average by the 10th (4.7C) and 1.1C below by the 13th (4.0C)

[Chris.R]

7.0°C here, 0.7°C above the 1981-2010 average. 

[Mapantz]

31 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

7.0°C here, 0.7°C above the 1981-2010 average. 

Quite a high start for you, Chris. Currently 5.3°C for my locale.

[Optimus Prime]

7 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

5.1 to the 3rd

0.1 above the 61 to 90 average

0.8 below the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 5.1 to the 3rd

Find it difficult to believe the 81-10 average is 0.9c above the 61-90 average. 

[Chris.R]

2 hours ago, Mapantz said:

Quite a high start for you, Chris. Currently 5.3°C for my locale.

Yep, a Westerly over the top of a high across the warm sea, not a good set up. It’s the warm nights that increase the mean most though.

Edited December 4, 2017 by Chris.R

[BornFromTheVoid]

29 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

Find it difficult to believe the 81-10 average is 0.9c above the 61-90 average. 

	61-90	Rolling	81-10	Rolling
1st	4.8	4.8	5.8	5.8
2nd	5.2	5.0	5.8	5.8
3rd	5.1	5.0	6	5.9
4th	5.4	5.1	6.1	5.9
5th	5.7	5.2	6.1	6.0
6th	4.8	5.2	5	5.8
7th	5	5.1	4.8	5.7
8th	4.4	5.1	4.4	5.5
9th	4.7	5.0	4.5	5.4
10th	4.6	5.0	4.3	5.3
11th	4.9	5.0	4.2	5.2
12th	4.7	4.9	4.2	5.1
13th	5	4.9	4.6	5.1
14th	4.8	4.9	4.4	5.0
15th	4.8	4.9	4.6	5.0
16th	4.8	4.9	4.6	5.0
17th	4.5	4.9	4.4	4.9
18th	4.4	4.9	4.4	4.9
19th	4	4.8	4.3	4.9
20th	4.5	4.8	3.7	4.8
21st	5.3	4.8	4.2	4.8
22nd	5	4.8	4.5	4.8
23rd	5.1	4.8	4.7	4.8
24th	4.6	4.8	4.7	4.8
25th	4.3	4.8	4.5	4.8
26th	4.1	4.8	4.3	4.7
27th	4	4.8	3.9	4.7
28th	3.8	4.7	4.1	4.7
29th	4	4.7	3.9	4.7
30th	4.1	4.7	4.2	4.6
31st	4	4.7	4.4	4.6

[Roger J Smith]

 

1981-2010 CET normals and daily records (1772 to 2016)

 

DATE ___ CET __ CET cum _____ MAX _______ MIN

01 _____ 5.8 ___ 5.8 ______ 12.1 (1775) ___ --3.0 (1947)

02 _____ 5.8 ___ 5.8 ______ 12.2 (1985) ___ --4.7 (1796)

03 _____ 6.0 ___ 5.9 ______ 12.2 (1985) ___ --4.0 (1879)

04 _____ 6.1 ___ 5.9 ______ 12.1 (1888) ___ --3.8 (1879,1925)

05 _____ 6.1 ___ 6.0 ______ 12.6 (1898) ___ --3.7 (1844)

06 _____ 5.0 ___ 5.8 ______ 12.3 (1898) ___ --5.5 (1844)

07 _____ 4.8 ___ 5.7 ______ 12.3 (1856) ___ --5.7 (1879)

08 _____ 4.4 ___ 5.5 ______ 12.1 (1856) ___ --5.4 (1807)

09 _____ 4.5 ___ 5.4 ______ 11.8 (1934) ___ --4.0 (1803)

10 _____ 4.3 ___ 5.3 ______ 10.9 (1997) ___ --4.5 (1784)

11 _____ 4.2 ___ 5.2 ______ 12.6 (1994) ___ --6.7 (1784)

12 _____ 4.2 ___ 5.1 ______ 12.9 (1994) ___ --8.5 (1981)

13 _____ 4.6 ___ 5.1 ______ 11.6 (1918) ___ --6.5 (1981)

14 _____ 4.4 ___ 5.0 ______ 11.8 (1912) ___ --5.3 (1878)

15 _____ 4.6 ___ 5.0 ______ 11.2 (1985) ___ --5.4 (1788)

16 _____ 4.6 ___ 5.0 ______ 11.4 (2015) ___ --6.6 (1859) ___ (was 10.8 -- 1842)

17 _____ 4.4 ___ 4.9 ______ 12.5 (2015) ___ --7.7 (1859) ___ (was 11.6 -- 1904)

18 _____ 4.4 ___ 4.9 ______ 12.5 (2015) ___ --7.1 (1859) ___ (was 11.8 -- 2014)

19 _____ 4.3 ___ 4.9 ______ 13.1 (2015) ___ --6.8 (2010) ___ (was 11.6 -- 1993)

20 _____ 3.7 ___ 4.8 ______ 11.1 (1833) ___ --7.0 (2010)

21 _____ 4.2 ___ 4.8 ______ 11.4 (1971) ___ --5.9 (2010)

22 _____ 4.5 ___ 4.8 ______ 11.6 (1991) ___ --6.8 (1890)

23 _____ 4.7 ___ 4.8 ______ 11.8 (1991) ___ --6.4 (1870)

24 _____ 4.7 ___ 4.8 ______ 10.7 (1843) ___ --6.9 (1870)

25 _____ 4.5 ___ 4.8 ___ 10.4 (1824,1983) _ --10.8 (1796)

26 _____ 4.3 ___ 4.7 ______ 11.0 (2011) ___ --5.4 (1798)

27 _____ 3.9 ___ 4.7 ______ 10.9 (2015) ___ --8.4 (1798) ___ (was 10.6 -- 1987)

28 _____ 4.1 ___ 4.7 ______ 11.5 (1987) ___ --8.2 (1798)

29 _____ 3.9 ___ 4.7 ______ 12.0 (1987) ___ --4.9 (1874)

30 _____ 4.2 ___ 4.6 ______ 11.0 (1834) ___ --6.1 (1870)

31 _____ 4.2 ___ 4.6 ______ 11.1 (1859) ___ --7.1 (1783)

________________________________________________________________

[Roger J Smith]

The tables of forecasts are now posted here:

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/75427-cet-competition-the-scores-ongoing/?page=8

and the median CET forecast is 4.2 while the median precip forecast is 77.0 mm.

76 entries for the temperature portion and 51 for the new precip contest.

Good luck everybody. 

 

[Summer Sun]

5.2 to the 4th

0.1 above the 61 to 90 average

0.7 below the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 5.2 to the 4th

Edited December 5, 2017 by Summer Sun

[Chris.R]

7.1°C here, 0.7°C above the 1981-2010 average. One more rise tomorrow and then a sharp drop is likely. 

[Summer Sun]

5.8 to the 5th

0.6 above the 61 to 90 average

0.2 below the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 5.8 to the 5th

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 5.4C -1.1C below normal. Rainfall 0.1mm

[Chris.R]

7.6°C here, 1.4°C above the 1981-2010 average. Rainfall: 3.3 mm

[summer blizzard]

It would be interesting to know what kind of means the GFS and Euro are producing through day 10 tonight. They keep the UK firmly cold through the runs.

 

[Optimus Prime]

17 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

It would be interesting to know what kind of means the GFS and Euro are producing through day 10 tonight. They keep the UK firmly cold through the runs.

 

Well it averages 1.8c for the period 8-15th. Mid month will be around 3.8°c. Not overly below normal. The coldest since 2012. 

[Summer Sun]

6.5 to the 6th

1.3 above the 61 to 90 average

0.7 above the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 6.5 to the 6th