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Winter 2017/2018-Stormy December, Two Severe Wintry Spells January/February.

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5 minutes ago, jules216 said:

There is no accumulated cold in Eastern Europe,I spent 16 day there just now and it was plus 10 last night at Budapest Airport!

That's why the forecast says 'sometimes there is" Not there will be.

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9 minutes ago, jules216 said:

There is no accumulated cold in Eastern Europe,I spent 16 day there just now and it was plus 10 last night at Budapest Airport!

?

It doesn't forecast accumulated cold in Eastern Europe.

Edit: I see PM beat me to it.

Edited by Yarmy

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9 minutes ago, jules216 said:

There is no accumulated cold in Eastern Europe,I spent 16 day there just now and it was plus 10 last night at Budapest Airport!

Not to mention Russia!

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Anyway nearly another 2 months of winter left yet before we start over analysing LRF's.

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3 minutes ago, karyo said:

Not to mention Russia!

That is the greatest indicator that there were hardly any Easterly incursions as of yet in Eastern Europe let alone UK,once again the rhetoric of these forecastscover all options so at the end of the time they can claim some sucess,its a low risk low gain strategy, very much like politics these days I guess

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3 minutes ago, jules216 said:

That is the greatest indicator that there were hardly any Easterly incursions as of yet in Eastern Europe let alone UK,once again the rhetoric of these forecastscover all options so at the end of the time they can claim some sucess,its a low risk low gain strategy, very much like politics these days I guess

But he hasn't forecasted it! Read it again. 

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24 minutes ago, jules216 said:

There is no accumulated cold in Eastern Europe,I spent 16 day there just now and it was plus 10 last night at Budapest Airport!

Hence the use of the phrase 'so sometimes we see'...Which, of itself, is merely a statement of fact...?

Edited by Ed Stone
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2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Hence the use of the phrase 'so sometimes we see'...Which, of itself, merely a statement of fact...?

Indeed. It's not a forecast, just a general observation that even with a block over Scandinavia, it's no guarantee that cold air will advect all the way to the British Isles. 

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49 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

But he hasn't forecasted it! Read it again. 

no he hasn't but what did he forecast then? some cyclonic some easterly incursion, kind of covers all the basis,hence my reference to politics, I know he can't forecast more specifics as he would hazard with his reputation as netweather depends on subscribers, its much easier for the likes of ourselves to lay it down in details as its just for fun, the point is that at the end of the month we struggle to decipher the success rate of the forecast as members can't even agree on what weather we had, not what will happen in future,funnily 

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5 hours ago, Weather-history said:

I agree, it wasn't a stormy December, IMO. How quiet was that week before Christmas was? Little wind. And the start of December was pretty sedate.

WHAT?? Well down here in Cornwall we have had a really stormy December, so stormy in places a 12ft sand wall has been left on our local beaches, lived here for 15 years and never seen this before. So I would say Ian is spot on so far and if it's a cold end of Jan and Feb then I think people should  listen

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5 minutes ago, John Badrick said:

WHAT?? Well down here in Cornwall we have had a really stormy December, so stormy in places a 12ft sand wall has been left on our local beaches, lived here for 15 years and never seen this before. So I would say Ian is spot on so far and if it's a cold end of Jan and Feb then I think people should  listen

Amazing how events can focus the mind.

It may have been stormier in Cornwall than up here probably due to the fact that you were SW to any sliding lows but you check out the charts running up to Christmas and the start of December. 

2nd December up to 5th December 

CFSR_1_2017120200_1.pngCFSR_1_2017120518_1.png

16th December-24th December

CFSR_1_2017121606_1.pngCFSR_1_2017122418_1.png

 

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2 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Amazing how events can focus the mind.

It may have been stormier in Cornwall than up here probably due to the fact that you were SW to any sliding lows but you check out the charts running up to Christmas and the start of December. 

2nd December up to 5th December 

CFSR_1_2017120200_1.pngCFSR_1_2017120518_1.png

16th December-24th December

CFSR_1_2017121606_1.pngCFSR_1_2017122418_1.png

 

How come you chose charts for the days that the weather was at its quietest?

I live a few miles from you and it was often very windy and wet here. Stormy doesn't mean having the roof blown over.

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5 hours ago, karyo said:

How come you chose charts for the days that the weather was at its quietest?

I live a few miles from you and it was often very windy and wet here. Stormy doesn't mean having the roof blown over.

My quote " but you check out the charts running up to Christmas and the start of December."

Your quote "How come you chose charts for the days that the weather was at its quietest?"

The answer is within your own question. lol 

Edited by Weather-history

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5 hours ago, Weather-history said:

My quote " but you check out the charts running up to Christmas and the start of December."

Your quote "How come you chose charts for the days that the weather was at its quietest?"

The answer is within your own question. lol 

But why specifically talk about those periods and not when the weather was much more active? You just cherry picked charts that don't show stormy weather. But any month will have some quieter periods even if it is stormy overall. I am happy to go with what I experienced and Met Office's December stats.

 

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Here in the north east it felt the least stormiest since 2012 apart from last year 

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1 hour ago, karyo said:

But why specifically talk about those periods and not when the weather was much more active? You just cherry picked charts that don't show stormy weather. But any month will have some quieter periods even if it is stormy overall. I am happy to go with what I experienced and Met Office's December stats.

 

You say your happy with Met office stats and if it were as as stormy as you think it was, why was there only two named storms? One on the 7th and one on the 30th. 

It wasn't a stormy month, IMO.

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15 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

You say your happy with Met office stats and if it were as as stormy as you think it was, why was there only two named storms? One on the 7th and one on the 30th. 

It wasn't a stormy month, IMO.

On top of the two named storms we had a succession of depressions and gales were widespread. I am not sure what number of storms you would require to call December stormy.

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I wouldn't worry too much about the storm naming system. Quite a few events have gone unnamed and equally we've had named storms that were nothing more than farts.

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Well around here Ian’s forecast for December was a big bust no matter how you dress it up. I’m a firm believer in that the only correct LRF is one after the event  but with one third of winter gone it’s 0-1. 

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Easterly looking very unlikely this month at the moment, looks like i'll stick with the October Fog Index for predicting winter snowfall.

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On 10/01/2018 at 18:45, Hocus Pocus said:

Well around here Ian’s forecast for December was a big bust no matter how you dress it up. I’m a firm believer in that the only correct LRF is one after the event  but with one third of winter gone it’s 0-1. 

Well that's an "imby comment" because in my BY it's been a hell of a stormy Jan and Feb so I reckon it's 1-1 and I have every confidence in the next prediction of a cold end of Jan/ beginning of Feb cold and if he gets the next round correct he'll be most accurate out of any LR forecaster as always time will tell  

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23 minutes ago, John Badrick said:

Well that's an "imby comment" because in my BY it's been a hell of a stormy Jan and Feb so I reckon it's 1-1 and I have every confidence in the next prediction of a cold end of Jan/ beginning of Feb cold and if he gets the next round correct he'll be most accurate out of any LR forecaster as always time will tell  

Nae another one with a TARDIS!:shok:

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Hell of a stormy winter so far? Seriously? 13/14 was a stormy winter. This has been nowhere near a stormy season. There have been a few storms, nothing out of the ordinary. 

Edited by Nick L
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