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Winter 2017/2018-Stormy December, Two Severe Wintry Spells January/February.


iapennell

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Well it looks like its Ian Lappell against the metoffice as they expect the generally mobile theme to continue into early Feb.

No doubt high lat blocking will return in march/april.

So predictable and tbh mind numbingly crap for cold lovers.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well it looks like its Ian Lappell against the metoffice as they expect the generally mobile theme to continue into early Feb.

No doubt high lat blocking will return in march/april.

So predictable and tbh mind numbingly crap for cold lovers.

Let's see how things shape up as we move closer to February. I have lost a lot of faith in the Met Office this winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

"Strong westerly and south-westerly winds will therefore predominate during the first half of January, bringing rain and gales across the country. "

Let's see. Well, certainly the 1st-3rd was zonal and there was storm Eleanor of course. However, the 4th-6th had a mid-atlantic ridge and we will have hp to our N/NE for the next week (at least) with an attendant slack  SE flow which covers the first half of January. There is no mention of this in the forecast.

I don't mind anyone having a go at this, and certainly a lot of effort has gone into it. But when your forecast is peppered with "will's" and "will be's" instead of likelihoods and probabilities then it smacks of hubris. 

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
1 hour ago, Nick L said:

It was unsettled but I wouldn't say it was particularly or unusually stormy. Temperatures nearly bang on average for England too with a widespread superb snow event for many. Rainfall was above average, not average, too.

I'm all for praising long range forecasts when they're correct, and appreciate the effort iapennell has gone to, but let's be objective in praise and criticism.

I agree, it wasn't a stormy December, IMO. How quiet was that week before Christmas was? Little wind. And the start of December was pretty sedate.

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

how did the met office december forecast go? Did they cover all basis as usual, a cold mild stormy wet dry rainy snowy month to come maybe.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

As of now, I'd suggest that the chances of a 'severe wintry spell' occurring this side of month's end are about as good as those of finding intelligent life in Brexit HQ...I do, however, hope that I'm 100% wrong on this!:cold::D

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
41 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

"Strong westerly and south-westerly winds will therefore predominate during the first half of January, bringing rain and gales across the country. "

Let's see. Well, certainly the 1st-3rd was zonal and there was storm Eleanor of course. However, the 4th-6th had a mid-atlantic ridge and we will have hp to our N/NE for the next week (at least) with an attendant slack  SE flow which covers the first half of January. There is no mention of this in the forecast.

I don't mind anyone having a go at this, and certainly a lot of effort has gone into it. But when your forecast is peppered with "will's" and "will be's" instead of likelihoods and probabilities then it smacks of hubris. 

Have you already moved to the January assessment? Let's wait to see how the general pattern evolves in the following weeks. By the way, heights look stronger in Russia than the northeast and that's for next week. Overall the weather for the UK looks like coming from the Atlantic after this brief easterly.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
15 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

how did the met office december forecast go? Did they cover all basis as usual, a cold mild stormy wet dry rainy snowy month to come maybe.

They went for below average December temperature wise and above average for Jan and Feb. :D

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

By the way, the netweather winter forecast went for a colder than average December It was released on 28th November. Ian's forecast was released on the 11th November and he did much better than netweather. 

I noticed from previous years how keen some people are on this forum to offer criticism to  Ian's seasonal forecast despite the fact he does pretty well and certainly better than other forecasts. After all, it is a free forecast, you have not paid anything for it yet some of you respond as if you bet money on it and lost.

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
6 minutes ago, karyo said:

By the way, the netweather winter forecast went for a colder than average December It was released on 28th November. Ian's forecast was released on the 11th November and he did much better than netweather. 

I noticed from previous years how keen some people are on this forum to offer criticism to  Ian's seasonal forecast despite the fact he does pretty well and certainly better than other forecasts. After all, it is a free forecast, you have not paid anything for it yet some of you respond as if you bet money on it and lost.

has the netweather winter forecast had any comments

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
6 minutes ago, karyo said:

By the way, the netweather winter forecast went for a colder than average December It was released on 28th November. Ian's forecast was released on the 11th November and he did much better than netweather. 

I noticed from previous years how keen some people are on this forum to offer criticism to  Ian's seasonal forecast despite the fact he does pretty well and certainly better than other forecasts. After all, it is a free forecast, you have not paid anything for it yet some of you respond as if you bet money on it and lost.

Here's the Netweather forecast for January:

For January we have much stronger support for eastern blocking and potential for some easterly incursions, and a continued suggestion of relatively cyclonic conditions. In that kind of setup we have to bear in mind that the UK often lies “at the end of the line” for easterlies and so sometimes we see very cold air masses accumulate over central and eastern Europe that never make it as far west as the British Isles.

 

That's pretty impressive, in my opinion.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
1 minute ago, lassie23 said:

has the netweather winter forecast had any comments

None since November...

This is what puzzles me, why are some people so ready to jump on Ian but willing to turn a blind eye on other forecasts. 

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
1 minute ago, Yarmy said:

Here's the Netweather forecast for January:

For January we have much stronger support for eastern blocking and potential for some easterly incursions, and a continued suggestion of relatively cyclonic conditions. In that kind of setup we have to bear in mind that the UK often lies “at the end of the line” for easterlies and so sometimes we see very cold air masses accumulate over central and eastern Europe that never make it as far west as the British Isles.

 

That's pretty impressive, in my opinion.

 

Check my post above regarding their December forecast. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
3 minutes ago, karyo said:

None since November...

This is what puzzles me, why are some people so ready to jump on Ian but willing to turn a blind eye on other forecasts. 

Because the Netweather forecast isn't falsely being portrayed as spot on for December.

Edited by Nick L
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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

Seasonal forecasting can only be broad-brushed - it's the nature of the beast.  Putting nth-level detail into a seasonal forecast is simply ridiculous...

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
Just now, mulzy said:

Seasonal forecasting can only be broad-brushed - it's the nature of the beast.  Putting nth-level detail into a seasonal forecast is simply ridiculous...

This, for me, is the best post so far. Going into serious detail months ahead and putting phrases such as "will happen" is putting you on a hiding to nothing. I'm not a long range forecaster, but I wouldn't even put "will happen" 10 days out, let alone 2/3 months.

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

The Netweather forecast for December:

In general the signal for westerly dominated conditions is strongest for December, but the current model outputs are suggesting a blocked start to December with frequent northerly and north-westerly winds. Thus we will probably see a change to more unsettled conditions as December progresses, though still with potential for further cold shots mainly for the north, most likely from the north and north-west rather than east, especially with the Madden-Julian Oscillation heading towards phases 7 and 8 which are correlated with blocking to the north and north-west of the UK.

Again, that's not bad.

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

in fairness, iapennell's lrf forecasts have been more accurate than netweather's if you want to make a comparison, as these are pretty much the only two regular lrf on the site, particularly 2013/2014.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
2 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

in fairness, iapennell's lrf forecasts have been more accurate than netweather's if you want to make a comparison, as these are pretty much the only two regular lrf on the site, particularly 2013/2014.

Couldn't comment on this as I have an appalling memory, if someone wants to go through and compare from recent winters then by all means do so. What's being contested is people claiming that this forecast was spot on, December was not stormy. It just wasn't. Nobody is having a dig at iapennell at all, merely pointing out where things may not have gone to plan. I've every respect for anyone who attempts a long range forecast, I personally wouldn't touch it with a barge pole. But I won't sit here and allow comments praising/criticising forecasts when I think they're unwarranted. Whether it's iapennell, the Netweather forecast, the Met Office forecast or any of my own for that matter!

Edited by Nick L
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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
1 minute ago, Nick L said:

Couldn't comment on this as I have an appalling memory, if someone wants to go through and compare from recent winters then by all means do so. What's being contested is people claiming that this forecast was spot on, December was not stormy. It just wasn't.

those are the only two winter forecasts i read lol, don't bother with cold rampers forecasts, december was unsettled here.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
1 minute ago, Nick L said:

Couldn't comment on this as I have an appalling memory, if someone wants to go through and compare from recent winters then by all means do so. What's being contested is people claiming that this forecast was spot on, December was not stormy. It just wasn't.

Ok, I will help your memory! Netweather is yet to have a winter lrf right

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
2 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

those are the only two winter forecasts i read lol, don't bother with cold rampers forecasts, december was unsettled here.

Yes, it was unsettled in this part of the world. But stormy? Not really. Stormy and unsettled are different things.

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
10 minutes ago, karyo said:

Ok, I will help your memory! Netweather is yet to have a winter lrf right

Yes out of the two his has done better so far, if late January turns cold from the east, then hats off to him.:hi:

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
37 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

Here's the Netweather forecast for January:

For January we have much stronger support for eastern blocking and potential for some easterly incursions, and a continued suggestion of relatively cyclonic conditions. In that kind of setup we have to bear in mind that the UK often lies “at the end of the line” for easterlies and so sometimes we see very cold air masses accumulate over central and eastern Europe that never make it as far west as the British Isles.

 

That's pretty impressive, in my opinion.

 

There is no accumulated cold in Eastern Europe,I spent 16 day there just now and it was plus 10 last night at Budapest Airport!

Edited by jules216
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