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Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx
30 minutes ago, Jemma Croton said:

In sorry, I’m still very much learning about SSW’s.

l know this is pie in the sky stuff but can those in the know give a basic (I won’t hold you to it) prediction as to how this one may effect us when it’s occuring so late in winter?

This will help you out - https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/learn-about-the-weather/how-weather-works/sudden-stratospheric-warming

Or in a more pictorial quicker summary

DVHFtN5X4AEzl8R.thumb.jpg.85fc19c3ecb37de8c56e18072be1e171.jpg

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton
41 minutes ago, Jemma Croton said:

In sorry, I’m still very much learning about SSW’s.

l know this is pie in the sky stuff but can those in the know give a basic (I won’t hold you to it) prediction as to how this one may effect us when it’s occuring so late in winter?

March 2012, minor warming, sunny and warm,

March 2016, SSW, dull and cool

Jan 2013, SSW, March severely cold with snow

Edited by Matthew.
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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

Given the similarities to 2009 have gone all geek and ripped some data from MERRA and plotted November to date for 08/09 and this season.

Attached is a pdf of Heat Flux 45 - 75N for 10,30,50 layers and the same again for W1 and W2.

This season the you can clearly see the rhythm and cadence in the heat flux. The W1 forcing significantly stronger.

Then, looking at W2 you get a feel for just how fierce Jan 09 was. Hopefully helps folks take a view of the two, couple of example images below.

Picture1.thumb.png.7700504c52806e7cde62f99ea5ca4b52.pngPicture2.thumb.png.7337e7a5118be8900279741d58b1c474.png

 

 

SSW.pdf

 

Edited by lorenzo
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Posted
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK
19 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

Given the similarities to 2009 have gone all geek and ripped some data from MERRA and plotted November to date for 08/09 and this season.

Attached is a pdf of Heat Flux 45 - 75N for 10,30,50 layers and the same again for W1 and W2.

This season the you can clearly see the rhythm and cadence in the heat flux. The W1 forcing significantly stronger.

Then, looking at W2 you get a feel for just how fierce Jan 09 was. Hopefully helps folks take a view of the two, couple of example images below.

Picture1.thumb.png.7700504c52806e7cde62f99ea5ca4b52.pngPicture2.thumb.png.7337e7a5118be8900279741d58b1c474.png

 

 

SSW.pdf

 

 

What are your thoughts on Tropospheric responses? 

Decoupling between Trop and Strat PV by 10-14 days.  Then reliance on WAAs to disrupt  the Trop wave pattern into several extending lobes towards the lower latitudes.  As to where I’d only be guessing, very difficult to calculate. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: North East
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder , Lightning , Snow , Blizzards
  • Location: North East
1 hour ago, comet said:

For the most part this is almost certainly a top down forcing. You can easily see this on the instant weather maps.

The late Jan 2009 warming and split was in a similar locale and had an almost immediate trop response, I see no reason why this should be any different.  We may only be a couple of days away from some mouth watering charts to start appearing in the model thread. I must admit my expectations are very, very high.

So nearly no lag? Think 2/3 ssw events effect the uk ? Accurate ?

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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

#stratporn courtesy of the good Dr Ventrice

DVHUnkeV4AYJFak.thumb.jpg.d30da1ca7ea6ab1f71bd7b06187c86ef.jpg

@chionomaniac is your guru for the trop response @KyleHenry bet he is mulling this over as we speak. Over to the expert. WOnder if @Glacier Point has given it any further consideration. Will defer to those knowledgeable gents. 

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Reading the Met 30 day forecast - perhaps they are seeing an immediate response; and the effect an easterly feed by third week of Feb, potential for long lasting cold with high lattitude blocking.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

Some GEFS member(s) really are out this world, I’ve not been looking at this area for years and I know very little but most impressive zonal winds reversal I’ve seen modelled sub -40 m/s is that ‘mental’ not sure how 2009 compares? Even mean is pretty decent. A SSW now looks very likely if certain.

Possibly major? I guess there could be a quick propagation to troposphere... not too late too.

B4D46037-6712-429A-B3D7-568E716D080B.thumb.jpeg.2f154bdf4125a8665e811dc4696918f5.jpeg

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Location: Hertfordshire
31 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

Whilst the above is the nuke heat flux aggregate - we also have on NASA the momentum flux plots - would be interested to hear @Interitus thoughts on propagation given the excellence shown in previous posts tracking the strat interplay with trop, and thoughts on precursors given this turnaround is against thoughts of the last 7 days. This is not an I told you so, this is an examination of the validity of precursors vs the precision in analysis.

Below is 500hPa and hence the reason we need a few days to see the mechanics in play.

5a761a536f86c_momentumflux500hPa.thumb.PNG.1b3bc5089656dd6a245817f0e2a7754e.PNG

Wild cards are also the 7-8-1 MJO with MJO wanting to push through the 6-7 regime into 7-8-1 - pretty astounding in itself given pacific proclivity( Nina). Also the uptick in the MJO to plus 3-4 sigma is as @Catacol mentioned on the mod a 1/10 yr event. - Genuinely is, and perhaps longer lead than that. I surmise the routes are in peak solar min and modulation of the hadley cells.. EPF forcing juices cells - when there is none... we have other modes imprinting on the atmosphere.

Also within that the inflection on both GFS and ECM NWP and @chionomaniac identifying a second pulse of warming artefact over hudson at time when MJO 8-1 would build blocks...

Tantalising - I had thought we were overdue a signature strat event, the garfinkel study telegraphs P2 MJO as lagging thru the vortex at 30-35 days and it is literally bang on the money right now. Impressive, add in the mitchell prescursors highlighted by Ed, this SSW is proving to be textbook for the science written over the last decade on SSW. Exciting times... Where it lands trop wise... that is the absolute fun of it all ! Genuinely not sure but spillage of that level of cold,gotta love that !

 

There must be the propensity for some record cold to fall somewhere in the mid latitudes if we see a tanking AO and high latitude blocking that does this warming and forcing justice.

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Posted
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK

The ECMWF has wave 1 tantalisingly close to full reversal. As it is so close many will have to watch stats up to and after the event.2A03626A-7752-438D-ABB7-33AD4B62958D.thumb.gif.e0e725aee992ddbbacad36200919857d.gif

935D5612-F9F6-4C6B-B34E-99E056E996DC.thumb.gif.7b81bd39173c1d0f1b117a5a7139e529.gif

 

Wave 2  is going to require the same observations

ED4519F3-7581-4061-B291-922234C68B9D.thumb.gif.3b664f47921eeccad403c47ff75fc49e.gif

 

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I've done research plotting all 10mb warmings going back to 1948, the greatest effect is always lagged after the event. 

late October - November warming = -NAO 35-45 days later 80%

December warming = -NAO 30-35 days later 70%

January warming = -NAO 20-30 days later 70%

February warming = -NAO 15-20 days later 70%

March warming = -NAO 10-15 days later 65%

Edited by Love Sempiternity
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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Location: Hertfordshire
1 hour ago, KyleHenry said:

The ECMWF has wave 1 tantalisingly close to full reversal. As it is so close many will have to watch stats up to and after the event.2A03626A-7752-438D-ABB7-33AD4B62958D.thumb.gif.e0e725aee992ddbbacad36200919857d.gif

935D5612-F9F6-4C6B-B34E-99E056E996DC.thumb.gif.7b81bd39173c1d0f1b117a5a7139e529.gif

 

Wave 2  is going to require the same observations

ED4519F3-7581-4061-B291-922234C68B9D.thumb.gif.3b664f47921eeccad403c47ff75fc49e.gif

 

Seems to have backed off slightly from yesterday, it was showing reversal down to -10

Edited by comet
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Posted
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK
  • Location: Portrush. (NI) UK
4 hours ago, comet said:

Seems to have backed off slightly from yesterday, it was showing reversal down to -10

Very marginal 1/2 km, it will change again tomorrow for sure.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
8 hours ago, Love Sempiternity said:

I've done research plotting all 10mb warmings going back to 1948, the greatest effect is always lagged after the event. 

late October - November warming = -NAO 35-45 days later 80%

December warming = -NAO 30-35 days later 70%

January warming = -NAO 20-30 days later 70%

February warming = -NAO 15-20 days later 70%

March warming = -NAO 10-15 days later 65%

Yes. I think our current setup may produce impact a bit quicker than that 15-20 day average. We have a trop led pattern rather than a downwelling impact, and as such preconditions are already in place via heights over Scandy. If we are very fortunate indeed we see the split force a vortex shard down over Europe, serving to support the Scandy height and help pump cold air west over the continent - and this could happen within a week to 10 days after the split... sometime in the final third of the month. MetO are still using the tantalising "very cold" descriptor in the text forecast....

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