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Don't miss the Berlin charts in the morning - even Crewe will be impressed ! 

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well hope some good things will be given by strato signs for the winter 

45.png

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Would not be surprised that the heights and blocking being shown on the h500 charts are the results of the wave  breaking towards the end of October over north America and Canada and subsequent weakening and split that followed in early November as seen below.

Composite PlotComposite Plot 

Just trying to make sense of where these heights and blocking being shown in the synoptic charts originated from. if this is indeed the case and I am pretty sure it is then it does not look as though their has been much if any disconnect between mid strat and trop after all. In fact it is just a lag effect as vortex weakening and split worked its way down and slowly starts to manifest itself in the trop charts.

 

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npst30.png npst30.pngnpst30.png

I don't recall seeing so much stretching and even near-splitting of the vortex at 30 hPa when the movement toward Siberia was in the 10+ day range?

The warming and more importantly height rises in tandem have raised my eyebrows and BA's recent tease suggests they may well shoot off the top of my forehead tomorrow morning...?

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 ECM at day 10 shows classic 3 wave pattern right up to 30hPA. Can't remember ever seeing that before.

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1 minute ago, chionomaniac said:

 ECM at day 10 shows classic 3 wave pattern right up to 30hPA. Can't remember ever seeing that before.

All the more reason that it won't verify then ed!

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Thanks all - wow, talk about letting the cat out of the box! Trying to comprehend what that might lead to down the line... actually, I'd best not waste my time on that while it's just the later stages of a single run!

Edited by Singularity

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

All the more reason that it won't verify then ed!

It would be nice if it did, just to tick it off the list as it were!

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Note the chart from the 00z run that I posted this morning - good continuity at 30hpa. 

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14 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I can post it - will be on Berlin in a few hours 

IMG_0647.thumb.PNG.c1ed4250ab08c401e962108655046f5d.PNG

068e51fa694f14a321ffd3bc77c097dad6c0659e

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From a strat perspective the new ec op is inline with the previous two (at 10/30/50 hpa) and if anything a little better. Wouldn't mind seeing a mid strat/trop connect in 2 weeks time!  Note the area of zonal wind reversal on yesterday's run late on ...............

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13 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

From a strat perspective the new ec op is inline with the previous two (at 10/30/50 hpa) and if anything a little better. Wouldn't mind seeing a mid strat/trop connect in 2 weeks time!  Note the area of zonal wind reversal on yesterday's run late on ...............

But those charts are a strat/trop connect - the stratosphere height pattern is being determined by the troposphere -

ECH1-216.thumb.gif.7a51d3f8c846d4b812da38d4fb3a4636.gif

 

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24 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

From a strat perspective the new ec op is inline with the previous two (at 10/30/50 hpa) and if anything a little better. Wouldn't mind seeing a mid strat/trop connect in 2 weeks time!  Note the area of zonal wind reversal on yesterday's run late on ...............

EDIT!!!!!!

Schoolboy error not refreshing the page ...............

it isn't the same !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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18 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

From a strat perspective the new ec op is inline with the previous two (at 10/30/50 hpa) and if anything a little better. Wouldn't mind seeing a mid strat/trop connect in 2 weeks time!  Note the area of zonal wind reversal on yesterday's run late on ...............

I'd be grateful for comments from bluearmy and @Interitus (and other experts) but to my eye, when comparing the Berlin Geopotential & Temp charts for Day 10 (29th Nov) at 10, 50, 150 and 500 hPa, there appears to be a good pattern match developing between trop and strat vortex - so a connect?

5a12830bd4506_Berlin10hpageopotRun19Novfor29Nov.thumb.gif.fafd97ee71ebfceb6421598c4183bdba.gif5a12831767f88_Berlin50hpageopotRun19Novfor29Nov.thumb.gif.acf410f20e3eb602467ed458e5da6c06.gif5a12832299848_Berlin150hpageopotRun19Novfor29Nov.thumb.gif.1e4deef6b78e43c65e411f0dd8f7b41b.gif5a12833747aca_ECMNH500hPa19Novfor29Nov.thumb.png.823c5db8d6994df72ed339a3204c2d26.png

And the reversal of zonal mean zonal winds appears to be moving upwards from the trop? Thanks in advance.

5a1284481434a_BerlinZMZWRun19Novfor19Nov.thumb.gif.8baa23c67e2f1645056c5a5c432ca87b.gif5a12845339a95_BerlinZMZWRun19Novfor24Nov.thumb.gif.5e2b42c1f00fbe183ed0a72146146ad2.gif5a12845bc6aeb_BerlinZMZWRun19Novfor29Nov.thumb.gif.f6c829b5a8c53741c006b337ae45dc95.gif

 

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15 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

EDIT!!!!!!

Schoolboy error not refreshing the page ...............

it isn't the same !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

not unimpressive but not as interesting as yesterday's 12z was 

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24 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

EDIT!!!!!!

Schoolboy error not refreshing the page ...............

it isn't the same !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Lol, you are worse than the models for giving false hope :)

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17 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Lol, you are worse than the models for giving false hope :)

Luckily there is plenty of good news for coldies all over the place today !!

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17 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Luckily there is plenty of good news for coldies all over the place today !!

Agreed Blue :)

Just looking at the early Dec charts for 2015/16 and we are in a completely different place.

Altho after looking at the gfs0z run i can see little or no warming of the strat?

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6 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

I'd be grateful for comments from bluearmy and @Interitus (and other experts) but to my eye, when comparing the Berlin Geopotential & Temp charts for Day 10 (29th Nov) at 10, 50, 150 and 500 hPa, there appears to be a good pattern match developing between trop and strat vortex - so a connect?

5a12830bd4506_Berlin10hpageopotRun19Novfor29Nov.thumb.gif.fafd97ee71ebfceb6421598c4183bdba.gif5a12831767f88_Berlin50hpageopotRun19Novfor29Nov.thumb.gif.acf410f20e3eb602467ed458e5da6c06.gif5a12832299848_Berlin150hpageopotRun19Novfor29Nov.thumb.gif.1e4deef6b78e43c65e411f0dd8f7b41b.gif5a12833747aca_ECMNH500hPa19Novfor29Nov.thumb.png.823c5db8d6994df72ed339a3204c2d26.png

And the reversal of zonal mean zonal winds appears to be moving upwards from the trop? Thanks in advance.

5a1284481434a_BerlinZMZWRun19Novfor19Nov.thumb.gif.8baa23c67e2f1645056c5a5c432ca87b.gif5a12845339a95_BerlinZMZWRun19Novfor24Nov.thumb.gif.5e2b42c1f00fbe183ed0a72146146ad2.gif5a12845bc6aeb_BerlinZMZWRun19Novfor29Nov.thumb.gif.f6c829b5a8c53741c006b337ae45dc95.gif

 

I am no expert BW but i read those like you.

Another view from the Tokyo site -charts showing the time series of mean zonal wind speeds -with height and the signs of bottom up warming from wave breakings since October.

jikei_uep_nh.gif

Little wonder the vortex is slower to develop so far.Graphical forecast from the ECM site showing those zonal winds up to mid-levels still not picking up.

fluxes.gif

Back to Tokyo still showing cooling well higher up though

pole30_nh.gif

I guess the ongoing wave action is keeping a lid on zonal winds currently.Not sure how this originated as MJO very quiet now-mountain torque perhaps?

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Further to the recent posts regarding where we go in next 2-3 weeks with strat. 

Will be interesting to monitor over next week to see how this will progress.

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Dr. Cohen going for the same message - a disrupted vortex being pushed towards Eurasia and an increased chance of more significant disruptions going forward. He should be updating his weekly blog later today, so hopefully more thoughts then.

 

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Will be mightily interesting to see what this all manifests into.

 

Edited by Daniel*
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