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Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
10 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, just as i thought, frontal snowfalls your best chance apart from the obvious brutal Easterlies associated with high pressure over Scandinavia.

Actually I did an analysis on the snowiest winters i remember here - 1995/96,2002/03,2005/06,2012/13, and as you can see the holy grail for us is that gulf of Genoa low with High Pressure centre between Norway and Iceland,under these synoptics all the snow would come up from southerly direction to us

RlWFBOYUng.png

Edited by jules216
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
9 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

For our winter nothing.

In the shorter term it cools the tropics and amplifies the MJO in theory. 

So shall we expect the hurricane activity to be suppressed for the remainder of the season?

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
53 minutes ago, karyo said:

So shall we expect the hurricane activity to be suppressed for the remainder of the season?

Depends where the wave is most amplified I suppose.

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

We know how much the models struggle with our N. Hemisphere SSWs... so I don't hold out much hope for them resolving the outcome of the much, much rarer S. Hemisphere equivalent.

Not sure it's technically a SSW by wind stats yet though; wind still not to -10 m/s at 60*N. Then again, this definition may not be appropriate given the markedly different climatology there.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Just a question from a dummy....could anyone answer?

Is the rarity of SSW events over the Southern Hemisphere due to the lack of landmass when compared with the Northern Hemisphere? MY understanding is that the PV over the south pole pretty much gets locked down and is far more intense than over the NH as there is less to effect it?

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
12 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Just a question from a dummy....could anyone answer?

Is the rarity of SSW events over the Southern Hemisphere due to the lack of landmass when compared with the Northern Hemisphere? MY understanding is that the PV over the south pole pretty much gets locked down and is far more intense than over the NH as there is less to effect it?

Antartic Polar Vortex is more stable enviroment then Arctic which is influenced by warm waters from Gulf Stream that travel poleward and more suspect to Rossby wave braking situations that can induce warm air in to polar stratosphere, while thats not the case in circulation around south pole. 

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Good response by Jules.

Essentially, being a vast, consistently cold and frozen landmass entirely surrounded by gently varying oceans is a far better for your stability than being a smaller, inconsistently frozen ocean flanked on two sides by strongly, rapidly varying landmasses.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
7 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Oops. Still time for a change.

5d78d57180f90.png

That's as near as you can get to a 3 month Bartlett.

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

When it is said there have only been 2 previous Southern Hemisphere SSWs on record, how far back to the records go? 

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
14 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Oops. Still time for a change.

5d78d57180f90.png

You gota laugh!!!just last month it was going for a scandi high and northern blocking and now the complete opposite!just goes to show how fickle these long range forecasts are!!ah well id rather it show a bartlett now than in novemevber!!still plenty of time for change!!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, Seasonality said:

When it is said there have only been 2 previous Southern Hemisphere SSWs on record, how far back to the records go? 

2 SSW's in the last 50 years i believe.

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
7 minutes ago, shaky said:

You gota laugh!!!just last month it was going for a scandi high and northern blocking and now the complete opposite!just goes to show how fickle these long range forecasts are!!ah well id rather it show a bartlett now than in novemevber!!still plenty of time for change!!

Probably goes to show how uncertain the forecasting is, given the initial data assimilated into the model from this run gives an entirely different result.

I wouldn't read much into it, clearly something has been picked up on that favours a mild atmospheric circulation pattern but how much can that change closer to the time?

If I recall it showed a very negative AO/NAO pattern in the build up to winters 2013/14 and 2018/19 so some busts there. Although for other winters the forecasts were good.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Pretty awful forecast, it's a good thing that i don't really put much stock in seasonal model forecasts.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

It's a shocking outlook for the winter ahead from that model. At face value youd have to surmise it's advocating one of the mildest winters on record. 

Not sure how much it can feasibly climb down from there, it would have to be some volte face!

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Last months jam(update)- mirrors the Lrf mod in question! .(previously)..

I await the update with a degree of uncertainty! ..

But I'm sure the goliath southern hem ssw ..WILL have an impact on modeling through out...-including_northern hemisphere exacting..

This is gonna be an interesting month or SO!!!!

temp2.glob.DJF2020.1aug2019 (1).gif

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
14 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Last months jam(update)- mirrors the Lrf mod in question! .(previously)..

I await the update with a degree of uncertainty! ..

But I'm sure the goliath southern hem ssw ..WILL have an impact on modeling through out...-including_northern hemisphere exacting..

This is gonna be an interesting month or SO!!!!

temp2.glob.DJF2020.1aug2019 (1).gif

Models (JMA) the same thing most years for the upcoming winter...and that is cool/cold for NW Europe as we get closer to winter it climbs down, getting tedious I'm afraid.

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
5 hours ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Oops. Still time for a change.

5d78d57180f90.png

That is the most depressing seasonal anomally imaginable. Lets see where are we next month

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
4 hours ago, jules216 said:

That is the most depressing seasonal anomally imaginable. Lets see where are we next month

Last years was brill, and it ended up a rubbish winter.

Obviously i would prefer it to show cold, but i don't give it much weight at this range anyway.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
4 hours ago, karyo said:

Oh well, best to have low expectations to avoid another winter disappointment.

Agreed, i got carried away with last years Glosea winter LRF, i wont make that mistake again..

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